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Post by Penddu on Apr 26, 2017 8:45:39 GMT
How about some predictions for Labour or Conservatives losing their deposits.. ?
For Wales I suggest best options might be:
Labour: Ceredigion Conservative: Rhondda
Where else?? |
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Post by greatkingrat on Apr 26, 2017 9:29:41 GMT
I don't see the Conservatives losing any deposits apart from in NI.
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Post by lennon on Apr 26, 2017 9:56:22 GMT
I don't see the Conservatives losing any deposits apart from in NI. In 2015 (Excluding NI) they only lost deposits in Glasgow South West (4.98%), Liverpool Walton (4.69%) and Glasgow North East (4.67%) - I don't expect them to lose any of those 3 this time around. In 2015 Labour only lost deposits in BRS (4.91%), Ross, Skye etc. (4.89%) and Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (4.51%), They were below 7.5% in a further 13 seats; (Inverness etc., Somerton & Frome, Cheltenham, O&S, Yeovil, Devon North, Wells, Dorset Mid, Gordon, Banff & Buch, Montgomeryshire, Westmor & Lons, Cornwall North). I would think that they might manage to stay above 5% in a couple of those but no more than that at the moment. |
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Post by thirdchill on Apr 26, 2017 11:46:36 GMT
I don't see the Conservatives losing any deposits apart from in NI. In 2015 (Excluding NI) they only lost deposits in Glasgow South West (4.98%), Liverpool Walton (4.69%) and Glasgow North East (4.67%) - I don't expect them to lose any of those 3 this time around. Liverpool Walton is more likely for a lost deposit than the two glasgow seats, due to the conservative position in scotland. However they should increase their vote by enough to keep their deposit in liverpool walton, up to about 6% possibly but little more than that, unless the lib dems have a good night and take some of the conservative vote with them here. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2017 17:38:54 GMT
In 2015 (Excluding NI) they only lost deposits in Glasgow South West (4.98%), Liverpool Walton (4.69%) and Glasgow North East (4.67%) - I don't expect them to lose any of those 3 this time around. Liverpool Walton is more likely for a lost deposit than the two glasgow seats, due to the conservative position in scotland. However they should increase their vote by enough to keep their deposit in liverpool walton, up to about 6% possibly but little more than that, unless the lib dems have a good night and take some of the conservative vote with them here. I suspect it'll come down to turnout. If shy Labour voters come out to vote for Corbyn (you know, because non-voters all wanted a more left-wing choice) then they might find themselves under the threshold. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 26, 2017 17:58:21 GMT
Conservatives: 0
Labour: 143
Liberal Democrats: 9
United Kingdom Independence Party: 485
Scottish National Party: 0
Plaid Cymru: 1
Green Party: 612
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2017 18:06:28 GMT
Far too high for Labour (we lost about 120 in 1983, when the threshold was 12.5% of votes cast)
Just NINE for the LibDems - as opposed to 335 last time, what are you smoking? There are still large parts of the country where they barely register.
And neither Greens or UKIP will likely be fielding even that many candidates - though the former could now end up ahead in both that and the popular vote.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2017 21:21:52 GMT
How about some predictions for Labour or Conservatives losing their deposits.. ?
For Wales I suggest best options might be:
Labour: Ceredigion Conservative: Rhondda
Where else?? No way we will lose our deposit anywhere in Wales. NI and at a push Liverpool Walton. Labour will lose quite a few. Westmoreland might be comical. Plais will surely lose a few |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 26, 2017 21:55:36 GMT
Due to the fact the Liberal Democrat recovery will not be as high as some believe and will mainly be confined to places where they have real chances of winning, or becoming the main challengers again, I expect the Liberal Democrats to lose around 200 deposits (compared to 341 in 2015).
I expect Labour within England and Wales (Scotland is another matter) to lose deposits in at least these ten constituencies: North Cornwall, Westmorland & Lonsdale, North Devon, Wells, Eastbourne, Somerton & Frome, Mid Dorset & North Poole, Cheltenham, Richmond Park (the Liberal Democrat squeeze to retain their by-election gain will be that tight), and Montgomeryshire (the only Welsh constituency where Labour lost their deposit in 1983, and which regularly records Labour's lowest vote in Wales).
The Conservatives will likely only lose deposits in Northern Ireland.
UKIP will likely lose at least 400 of their deposits; a lot of their votes last time were protest votes as well as core UKIP, hardline anti-EU and ex-BNP votes. With their raison d'etre gone (since Britain is on course to leave the EU), they will lose all real credibility.
The Green Party should retain more deposits this time in addition to gaining at least 1 extra MP-although I believe around 250-300 deposits will still be lost by the Green Party (better than 442 in 2015, though!) |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
Member is Online
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Post by iain on Apr 26, 2017 22:03:26 GMT
Why? The Greens do not have the same momentum as they did in 2015, and may be hit by any LD recovery and Corbyn's Labour.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 26, 2017 22:38:52 GMT
How about some predictions for Labour or Conservatives losing their deposits.. ?
For Wales I suggest best options might be:
Labour: Ceredigion Conservative: Rhondda
Where else?? No way we will lose our deposit anywhere in Wales. NI and at a push Liverpool Walton. Labour will lose quite a few. Westmoreland might be comical. Plais will surely lose a few 2.2% in 2010. Quite a target! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2017 19:59:58 GMT
The Green Party should retain more deposits this time in addition to gaining at least 1 extra MP-although I believe around 250-300 deposits will still be lost by the Green Party (better than 442 in 2015, though!)
I think you may be disappointed. Particularly in the former aim. |
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 29, 2017 9:27:38 GMT
The Green Party should retain more deposits this time in addition to gaining at least 1 extra MP-although I believe around 250-300 deposits will still be lost by the Green Party (better than 442 in 2015, though!)
I think you may be disappointed. Particularly in the former aim. I think we'll lose fewer deposits simply because the snapness of the election plus the handful of seats where we deliberately stand down will mean we stand fewer candidates, and those will tend to be in seats where we would have lost our deposit if we had stood. It's less clear whether we'll retain more deposits, though. When the election was announced, we were polling up on 2015, so it's definitely possible. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on May 20, 2017 23:14:32 GMT
Remember the old Lib Dem songbook favourite to the tune of Walzing Matilda:
Losing Deposits, Losing Deposits,
Who'll come a Losing Deposits with me....
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2024 11:08:03 GMT
Have started looking through where the Conservatives lost their deposit this time. A potentially non-exhaustive list:
Glasgow NE
Glasgow E
Glasgow S
Glasgow SW
Glasgow W
Glasgow N
West Dunbartonshire
Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch
Coatbridge & Bellshill
Airdrie & Shotts
Na h-Eileanan an-iar
NE Fife
Dundee Central
Orkney & Shetland
Bootle
Knowsley
Liverpool Walton
Liverpool Riverside
Liverpool West Derby
Liverpool Wavertree
Bristol Central
Islington North
Hackney South & Shoreditch (potentially not if spoilt ballots are included in the calculation)
Bethnal Green & Stepney
Also all the seats they stood in in Northern Ireland, but it seems redundant to count those.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 5, 2024 11:16:58 GMT
Just 4 outside of Scotland and Liverpool on that list.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 13:40:39 GMT
Reform really seemed to kill the Conservative deposits in Scotland
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Post by froome on Jul 5, 2024 13:44:58 GMT
In Bristol Central every party lost their deposit except Green and Labour.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 6, 2024 0:43:34 GMT
In Bristol Central every party lost their deposit except Green and Labour. Extraordinary when you consider that the predecessor seat was held by both the LDs and the Tories well within the lifetime of most of us on here, and that the Conservatives were in second place as recently as 2017. I've spotted quite a few constituencies where every candidate kept their deposit but haven't been making a list. |
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 6, 2024 0:47:26 GMT
Overall, including loonies and fruitcakes, do more candidates lose their deposits than retain them?? Or do more candidates retain their deposits than lose them?? How much profit did the deposit system make this election??
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