Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 2, 2024 14:29:00 GMT
Pretty sure it's mostly Pakistani Muslim by heritage. There is an old Black community in the city, the best-known product of which is the former cricketer David Lawrence, but it is small rather as in Liverpool. It indeed is a port city as is Liverpool by tradition. It's actually largely Gujarati Muslim, though there are small Pakistani and Bengali communities.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 1, 2024 14:22:31 GMT
I'm not convinced by this at all, even though lots of people are saying it. Having an official candidate fully backed by a by-election machine that has - whatever else you say about the current party - proved its credentials in recent contests, was likely enough on its own to reduce Galloway's "potential" vote from the 40% he actually got to around 30%. Which was surely eminently beatable - in these circumstances Tully's campaign surely never takes off, and quite likely the other "main" parties (LibDems, Tories, Reform) are also squeezed more in what would be universally seen as a Labour v Galloway contest. Yes, you can't reasonably extrapolate what the result might have looked like had Labour an official candidate from one in which it did not (and where the clear message was 'do not vote for the disendorsed candidate'). My guess is that turnout might have been relatively 'high' for a by-election.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 1, 2024 3:26:38 GMT
This is hands down the weirdest by-election EVER and I would challenge anyone to find another more odd It is an absolute case study on the power of the political party endorsement I wonder how many of Ali's votes were cast after he was drop-kicked? I suspect not many.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 1, 2024 2:46:51 GMT
Well, there's no official Labour candidate (as far as Labour is concerned and this did get on the news) and the government is widely despised and there will be people who will insist on voting anyway, so... Yeah, I'd just been expecting the anti Galloway vote to go elsewhere like the Lib Dems and Danczuk. Tully didn't have any focus. I suppose under some conditions 'A.N. Other, Local Man' will do.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 1, 2024 2:43:11 GMT
I don't think anyone would have expected Tully coming second, that is extremely out of nowhere. I always thought he sounded like a good candidate but not one that people would vote for. Well, there's no official Labour candidate (as far as Labour is concerned and this did get on the news) and the government is widely despised and there will be people who will insist on voting anyway, so...
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 1, 2024 0:51:40 GMT
Purely technical in this case.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 29, 2024 19:46:44 GMT
...and benefit from tactical support from Greens and LDs who would prefer him to the offical Labour candidate. Why? He's just some machine politician from Nelson.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 26, 2024 17:12:30 GMT
Would have depended on how they were drawn: the new boundaries chosen on for The Wrekin were highly unfavourable for Labour as the area removed for 1950 (i.e. Wenlock MB) was a critical Labour stronghold in parliamentary elections.* If after adding it back the constituency was then extended in the logical direction (to Bridgnorth) you would be left with one with a fairly similar political balance to the actual 1950-74 constituency. *The bulk of the population lived in Madeley and the bulk of the rest in Broseley.A brief report, August 1946, about the proposed Shropshire boundaries:- Labour were very much opposed to the scheme and demanded the return of a fourth seat for Shropshire (Birmingham Daily Gazette, 13 August 1946). That remarkably insane proposal would have actually created a competitive Ludlow. Amazing.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 23, 2024 18:26:09 GMT
We've been overdue a classic Iran Iraq War style libel case haven't we.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 23, 2024 13:10:33 GMT
E.g. in Shropshire Labour won The Wrekin and the Tories won the other three seats; if the county had only had three seats would Labour have had much chance in any of them? Would have depended on how they were drawn: the new boundaries chosen on for The Wrekin were highly unfavourable for Labour as the area removed for 1950 (i.e. Wenlock MB) was a critical Labour stronghold in parliamentary elections.* If after adding it back the constituency was then extended in the logical direction (to Bridgnorth) you would be left with one with a fairly similar political balance to the actual 1950-74 constituency. *The bulk of the population lived in Madeley and the bulk of the rest in Broseley.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 22, 2024 23:20:18 GMT
if you mean being a useless opposition party yes, if you mean doing something morally repugnant which is what I thought you meant then no. Yes, I was bundling together all of the reasons to perhaps wish it had not been...
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 22, 2024 23:19:50 GMT
What is more plausible is that Robert Mellish, who knew Foot well from decades as fellow MPs and who had worked with him when they were Chief Whip and Leader of the House, had been considerably exaggerating Tatchell's political position. Interesting figure, Mellish. In some respects exactly the figure people tend to assume, and in some others (probably more on balance) completely different. Interesting also in terms of urban history as well as political history.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
YouGov
Feb 22, 2024 14:01:20 GMT
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 22, 2024 14:01:20 GMT
They've always been prone to occasionally exaggerating (if that's the right word, and that's an interesting philosophical question given that no poll is 'real' isn't it?) wider trends outside of election periods, which I think must be methodological to some extent. Though I note that a lot of people have recent had letters through the post with details about how their pensions have done recently, so including the damage from The Fiscal Event.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 22, 2024 13:01:40 GMT
I don't think that either the Labour or Conservative Parties did anything seriously wrong in that campaign. Well for Labour I was thinking more of absolutely everything before that point, which put together reads today like a series of entirely avoidable train-wrecks.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 22, 2024 12:34:49 GMT
The thing about the Bermondsey by-election is that no one involved above a certain level of importance emerges out of it looking particularly good, even if some emerge looking worse than others.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 19, 2024 12:13:59 GMT
No, but he clearly would have been had James Anderton not been a close friend.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 19, 2024 11:28:16 GMT
In the original proposals from 1967 (Cmnd 3340), there was no Clwyd; Gwynedd included Denbighshire and Flintshire. There was also a single Glamorgan. This would likely have worked out better.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 18, 2024 20:48:11 GMT
It is also possible that the notionals were not quite as accurate as might be ideal.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 15, 2024 11:59:08 GMT
The principal concern about postal ballots is not fraud (there have been cases - a tiny number confirmed, a larger number suspected - but all have concerned local elections) but ballot secrecy and therefore the possibility of coercion. This is not a problem restricted to a couple of ethnic minorities that happen to share the same religious/communal background, even if it is especially obvious there. Sorry, but this is comparing eggs with aubergines, an Ali win in a low-turnout byelection bears little comparison to a new MP elected in a much higher turnout general election. Any incumbency bounce would be minimal. Also, in a general election, the Rochdale Labour election machine would be in full-flow and, in a scenario without Galloway, it would be less heated. And, sorry to be blunt about this but it is relevant, the demographic balance of those voting in the constituency in a General Election will look very different to that which will be seen in what this by-election has now turned into. There is an obvious ceiling on an electoral strategy that can only fully reach about a fifth of GE votes maximum.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
|
Post by Sibboleth on Feb 14, 2024 23:46:49 GMT
Having had a look at what they've posted, if that's right it's only going to be by accident.
|
|