Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 5, 2019 19:15:35 GMT
Venstre are to the right of the Social Democrats on literally every issue. There's been some really bad reporting of this election (and of Danish politics in general) in English and it seems to have given a lot of people a seriously warped impression of what's going on.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 4, 2019 17:55:56 GMT
The fundamental problem with CUK-TIG is that it was (is) a symptom of a political and party system gone rancid, rather than any sort of cure or alternative. Right from the start there was a definite lack of coherence, and this only grew as the months rolled by. It was never clear, exactly, what they were about other than 'the main parties are shit' (a position that most people would agree with, yes, but hardly distinctive) and 'Brexit is bad' (a position that other parties already held). So I don't know. It's easy to think of how a splinter group from either main party might be considerably more successful (it could still happen), but I don't know how this one could have been: at least, not without getting seriously lucky. Which was all they were left angling for in the end.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 2, 2019 16:53:04 GMT
Too much history in Britain for Canada to be that useful a predictor of what might happen if the party 'system' is put under massive strain at a General Election at which FPTP is in place. You'd be better off looking at India and Pakistan. Even if one were to look to Canada you'd have to note that, Quebec aside, what happened in 1993 was not normal. But right now we should probably wait to see how things unfold before speculating much in any direction.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 2, 2019 12:57:29 GMT
Can't see the point of a supposedly left wing party whose only purpose appears to be to back up Conservative led government Well the CDU is in many ways only a supposedly right wing party. While their polling is absolutely dire, the SPD have actually got most of their policies implemented through the grand coalition. I’m sure the SPD would be happy to lead a government, they just can’t while always polling behind potential coalition partners as they have for years now. Well that's the thing about German politics. Apart from the (overwhelmingly Western!) left wing of the Left and o/c the AfD, there's not really that much between any of the parties, at least once one ignores image and branding. There are policy differences (and so elections and coalition formation are not without consequence), but they're relatively small and technical. The electorate is quite aware of this and votes accordingly: essentially a Potemkin pluralism that masks a very broad consensus politics has replaced the Cold War 'People's Party' framework.* Presented with the same situation as the SPD after the last federal election, the Greens would have made the same choice. And, though German polling is best left ignore outside election time except in very broad terms, may well do so after the next one. *The SPD have mentally adjusted to this particularly badly o/c.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 1, 2019 12:35:52 GMT
Is the whole 'vet candidates for by-elections very carefully' thing ignored when said candidate is a Unite official?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 31, 2019 16:51:21 GMT
Top ten percentages for the two national parties...
BJP
1. Gujarat, Surat – 74.5 2. Gujarat, Navsari – 74.4 3. Gujarat, Vadodara – 72.3 4. Himachal Pradesh, Kangra – 72.0 5. Rajasthan, Bhilwara – 71.6 6. Maharashtra, Mumbai North – 71.2 7. Haryana, Karnal – 70.1 8. Gujarat, Gandhinagar – 69.7 9. Rajasthan, Rajasmand – 69.6 10. Madhya Pradesh, Hoshangabad – 69.4
Congress
1. Kerala, Wayanad – 64.7 2. Tamil Nadu, Karur – 63.1 3. Tamil Nadu, Kanniyakumari – 59.8 4. Tamil Nadu, Tiruchirappalli – 59.3 5. Puducherry – 56.3 6. Uttar Pradesh, Rae Bareli – 55.8 7. Assam, Kaliabor – 55.1 8. Tamil Nadu, Thiruvallur – 54.5 9. Kerala, Idukki – 54.2 10. Karnataka, Bangalore Rural – 54.1
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 29, 2019 19:18:36 GMT
Lieberman and the Haredi parties have both rejected a last minute offer from Netanyahu. Meanwhile, he also approached Gabbay with a promise of cabinet seats: Gabbay was apparently quite tempted by this but was told to fuck off by his remaining MKs, so that's off as well.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 29, 2019 11:45:13 GMT
The Campbell thing is not substantively a big deal, but just after being giving a kicking by their own voters and even members defecting to Geens and LDs the leadership's immediate reaction was to find a prominent example and administer a punishment beating. This suggest that rather than heed the lesson the leadership are incapable of change. He was clearly goading them to do this - that his statement was so carefully placed and phrased within the grey area established by the poorly-drafted rules is quite the tell there - for whatever reason (whether a purposeful act of political agitation or trolling or both doesn't really matter) and they went and did it.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 28, 2019 13:50:20 GMT
Seen a lot of people confidently asserting that the rules are clear. Which mostly just tells you that they've not actually read them. Is the Labour Party Rule Book really suitable for anything other than kindling, is my question?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 28, 2019 12:38:19 GMT
Mostly it looks like public score-settling. Not a great look at the best of times, but a particularly bad one when the entire disciplinary process has come under criticism for its partiality.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2019 23:25:13 GMT
Complete list of gains and losses, by party and constituency.
DMK gain from AIADMK
Tamil Nadu, Arakkonam Tamil Nadu, Arani Tamil Nadu, Chennai Central Tamil Nadu, Chennai North Tamil Nadu, Chennai South Tamil Nadu, Cuddalore Tamil Nadu, Dindigul Tamil Nadu, Erode Tamil Nadu, Kallakurichi Tamil Nadu, Kancheepuram Tamil Nadu, Mayiladuthurai Tamil Nadu, Namakkal Tamil Nadu, Nilgiris Tamil Nadu, Perambalur Tamil Nadu, Pollachi Tamil Nadu, Salem Tamil Nadu, Sriperumbudur Tamil Nadu, Tenkasi Tamil Nadu, Thanjavur Tamil Nadu, Thoothukkudi Tamil Nadu, Tirunelveli Tamil Nadu, Tiruvannamalai Tamil Nadu, Viluppuram
BJP gain from INC
Arunachal Pradesh, Arunachal East Assam, Autonomous District Assam, Silchar Chhattisgarh, Durg Haryana, Rohtak Karnataka, Chikkballapur Karnataka, Chikkodi Karnataka, Chitadurga Karnataka, Gulbarga Karnataka, Kolar Karnataka, Raichur Karnataka, Tumkur Madhya Pradesh, Guna Maharashtra, Nanded Manipur, Inner Manipur Uttar Pradesh, Amethi West Bengal, Maldaha Uttar
BJP gain from AITC
West Bengal, Alipurduars West Bengal, Balurghat West Bengal, Bangaon West Bengal, Bankura West Bengal, Barrackpore West Bengal, Bishnupur West Bengal, Burdwandurgapur West Bengal, Cooch Behar West Bengal, Hooghly West Bengal, Jalpaiguri West Bengal, Jhargram West Bengal, Medinipur West Bengal, Purulia West Bengal, Ranaghat
YSRC gain from TDP
Andhra Pradesh, Amalapuram Andhra Pradesh, Anakapalli Andhra Pradesh, Anatapur Andhra Pradesh, Bapatla Andhra Pradesh, Chittoor Andhra Pradesh, Eluru Andhra Pradesh, Hindupur Andhra Pradesh, Kakinada Andhra Pradesh, Machilipatnam Andhra Pradesh, Narasaraopet Andhra Pradesh, Rajahmundry Andhra Pradesh, Vizianagaram
BSP gain from BJP
Uttar Pradesh, Ambedkar Nagar Uttar Pradesh, Amroha Uttar Pradesh, Bijnor Uttar Pradesh, Ghazipur Uttar Pradesh, Ghosi Uttar Pradesh, Jaunpur Uttar Pradesh, Nagina Uttar Pradesh, Saharanpur Uttar Pradesh, Shrawasti
INC gain from BJP
Andaman and Nicobar Islands Assam, Nowgong Chhattisgarh, Bastar Chhattisgarh, Korba Goa, South Goa Jharkhand, Singhbhum Maharashtra, Chandrapur Tamil Nadu, Kanniyakumari
BJP gain from BJD
Odisha, Balasore Odisha, Bargarh Odisha, Bhubaneswar Odisha, Bolangir Odisha, Kalahandi Odisha, Mayurbhanj Odisha, Sambalpur
INC gain from AIADMK
Tamil Nadu, Karur Tamil Nadu, Krishnagiri Tamil Nadu, Sivaganga Tamil Nadu, Thiruvallur Tamil Nadu, Tiruchirappalli Tamil Nadu, Virudhunagar
JD (U) gain from BJP
Bihar, Gaya Bihar, Gopalganj Bihar, Jhanjharpur Bihar, Siwan Bihar, Valmiki Nagar
INC gain from CPI (M)
Kerala, Alathur Kerala, Attingal Kerala, Kannur Kerala, Kasaragod Kerala, Palakkad
BJP gain from CPI (M)
Tripura, Tripura East Tripura, Tripura West West Bengal, Raiganj
BJP gain from SP
Uttar Pradesh, Badaun Uttar Pradesh, Firozabad Uttar Pradesh, Kannauj
BJP gain from TRS
Telangana, Adilabad Telangana, Karimnagar Telangana, Nizamabad
INC gain from AAP
Punjab, Faridkot Punjab, Fatehgarh Sahib Punjab, Patiala
JD (U) gain from RJD
Bihar, Banka Bihar, Bhagalpur Bihar, Madhepura
JD (U) gain from RLSP
Bihar, Jahanabad Bihar, Karakat Bihar, Sitamarhi
JKNC gain from PDP
Jammu and Kashmir, Anantnag Jammu and Kashmir, Baramulla Jammu and Kashmir, Srinagar
SP gain from BJP
Uttar Pradesh, Mordabad Uttar Pradesh, Rampur Uttar Pradesh, Sambhal
CPI gain from AIADMK
Tamil Nadu, Nagapattinam Tamil Nadu, Tiruppur
CPI (M) gain from AIADMK
Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore Tamil Nadu, Madurai
BJP gain from INLD
Haryana, Hisar Haryana, Sirsa
INC gain from Independent
Kerala, Chalakudy Kerala, Idukki
INC gain from SAD
Punjab, Anandpur Sahib Punjab, Khadoor Sahib
NCP gain from SS
Maharashtra, Raigad Maharashtra, Shirur
YSRC gain from BJP
Andhra Pradesh, Narsapuram Andhra Pradesh, Visakhapatnam
AD gain from BJP
Uttar Pradesh, Robertsganj
AITC gain from CPI (M)
West Bengal, Murshidabad
AITC gain from INC
West Bengal, Jangipur
AIM-e-IM gain from SS
Maharashtra, Aurangabad
AJSU gain from BJP
Jharkhand, Giridih
BJP gain from AD
Uttar Pradesh, Pratapgarh
BJP gain from AIUDF
Assam, Karimganj
BJP gain from JMM
Jharkhand, Dumka
BJP gain from RJD
Bihar, Araria
BJP gain from NCP
Maharashtra, Madha
CPI (M) gain from INC
Kerala, Alappuzha
DMK gain from PMK
Tamil Nadu, Dharmapuri
Independent gain from BJP
Dadra and Nagar Haveli
Independent gain from JD (S)
Karnataka, Mandya
Independent gain from SS
Maharashtra, Amravati
INC gain from AINRC
Puducherry
INC gain from AIUDF
Assam, Barpeta
INC gain from BJD
Odisha, Koraput
INC gain from CPI
Kerala, Thrissur
INC gain from TDP
Telangana, Malkajgiri
INC gain from TRS
Telangana, Bhongir
IUML gain from AIADMK
Tamil Nadu, Ramanathapuram
JD (U) gain from INC
Bihar, Supaul
JD (U) gain from LJSP
Bihar, Munger
JD (U) gain from NCP
Bihar, Katihar
LJSP gain from BJP
Bihar, Nawada
NDPP gain from NPC
Nagaland
NPF gain from INC
Manipur, Outer Manipur
MNF gain from INC
Mizoram
RLP gain from BJP
Rajasthan, Nagaur
SKK gain from SDF
Sikkim
SS gain from BJP
Maharashtra, Palghar
SS gain from INC
Maharashtra, Hingoli
SS gain from NCP
Maharashtra, Kolhapur
SS gain from SwP
Maharashtra, Hatkanangle
TRS gain from INC
Telangana, Nagarkurnool
TRS gain from YSRC
Telangana, Khammam
VCK gain from AIADMK
Tamil Nadu, Chidambaram
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2019 17:28:09 GMT
Political crisis ongoing that could lead to fresh elections. Pray, tell us more. Lieberman stretched out his usual antics (a dispute with the Haredi parties over a military draft bill) much later in the day than normal taking things right to the deadline, and then it turned out that it wasn't a dance after all. He insists that this is a matter of principle, that he's not trying to ratf uck Netanyahu, but I don't think anyone believes that. Likud have instigated the slightly weird process of dissolving the Knesset (first of three votes passed) rather than have the role of government formation passed to the second largest party.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2019 16:37:24 GMT
Political crisis ongoing that could lead to fresh elections.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2019 16:02:07 GMT
Updated, final map: As you can see, Congress managed to squeak out a late gain: the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2019 11:21:12 GMT
I suspect that if it were possible to see ballots, you might see rather a lot (tens of thousands at least, perhaps more) of LP members autoexpelled...
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2019 11:14:28 GMT
(as IMO a lot of disproportionately Labour, and also some Tory, voters simply didn't vote) It was clear that this was going to happen a few weeks at least before the vote; both parties had (insanely, suicidally) as good as signaled that it was fine to sit this one out. Why even run candidates if you're going to do that?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,318
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Post by Sibboleth on May 25, 2019 22:26:08 GMT
Anyway what's the problem in waiting 3 days for the result? Particularly when it's for an election that is about 99% symbolic.
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