carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 10:43:38 GMT
Buzzword Watch 'Amazing Team' Do they have technicolour dreamcoats?
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 10:04:54 GMT
Lab 10825 58.9% Con 3218 17.5% Ref 3101 16.9% LD 387 2.1% Grn 368 2.0% Ind 163 0.9% ADF 147 0.8% MRLP 121 0.7% NOP 45 0.2% The time it took for that quite small count is an incompetent damned disgrace. The returning officer should be utterly ashamed of themself.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 9:45:39 GMT
I note that Labour was 7 votes off one further gain. A pretty impressive result from what must be a robust local Labour Party that will have had some very hard work to do. I’d imagine that the ‘services vote’ element here is far less than it was (and anyway isn’t the heavily Tory vote that it used to be). Correct. That is the essential difference. No, it isn't monumentally CON anymore either, but it is the diminished numbers that matter. @forfarshireconservative is rushing down his mythic rabbit hole of wrong conclusions as he so often does, when the answer is much simpler.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 9:08:37 GMT
Finally, they're counting: Why is so much of this incompetently and amazingly slow?
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Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 8:59:33 GMT
A local news site reports that verification has been completed and the council count proper is underway. What a slick operation? Runs just like clockwork, but considerably slower.
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Post by carlton43 on May 3, 2024 8:56:45 GMT
Independents +9 Labour -10 Greens +2 Conservative -1 First wipeout of the night for the Tories. Irrelevant. The real story is Labour.
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 23:55:38 GMT
Washington North Michael Walker (Labour Party) 1,389 Elizabeth Brown (Reform UK) 478 Svetlana Rakhimova (Local Conservatives) 179 Carlton West (Lib Dems) 123 2023 Labour Peter Walker* 1,455 68.2 +7.0 Conservative Svetlana Rakhimova 275 12.9 -12.1 Reform UK Elizabeth Anne Brown 163 7.6 New Green Kevin Lynch 131 6.1 -7.4 Liberal Democrats Graeme Arnott 108 5.1 New Washington South Brandon Feeley (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,545 Peter Noble (Local Conservatives) 890 Paul Donaghy (Reform UK) 382 * Incumbent elected as Con in 2021 Michal Chantkowski (Green Party) 96 Sean Terry (Lib Dems) 82 2023 Labour Co-op Joanne Chapman 1,311 43.6 -3.8 Conservative Peter Noble 1,210 40.3 -2.4 Reform UK Deborah Lorraine 229 7.6 New Green Robert Welsh 142 4.7 New Liberal Democrats Sean Terry And Another
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 23:39:39 GMT
Washington West Jimmy Warne (Labour Party) 1,412 Deborah Lorraine (Reform UK) 492 Sam Cosgrove (Local Conservatives) 395 Paul Leonard (Green Party) 225 Andrew Bex (Lib Dems) 215 2023 Labour Harry Trueman* 1,534 56.8 -1.6 Conservative Samantha Cosgrove 570 21.1 -10.1 Green Paul Leonard 228 8.4 -1.6 Liberal Democrats Andrew Bex 220 8.2 New Reform UK Kathryn Brown 147 5.4 New And Another
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 23:35:25 GMT
St Anns Lynne Dagg (Labour and Co-operative Party) 869 Greg Peacock (Local Conservatives) 429 * Incumbent Sam Woods-Brass (Reform UK) 420 Simon Hughes (Green Party) 119 Audrey Smith (Lib Dems) 96 2023 Labour Co-op Catherine Hunter 981 48.5 -0.3 Conservative Pam Mann* 694 34.3 -4.3 Liberal Democrats Elaine Rumfitt 216 10.7 New Green Simon Hughes 131 6.5 -6.1 NEARLY!
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 23:31:42 GMT
Hetton James Blackburn (Labour and Co-operative Party) 1,153 David Geddis (Independent) 721 Stephen Holt (Reform UK) 269 Connor Sinclair (Local Conservatives) 145 Rachel Lowe (Green Party) 123 Ian Ellis (Lib Dems) 62 2023 Labour Co-op Iain Scott* 1,117 44.9 -0.2 Independent David Geddis 812 32.7 -3.6 Conservative Connor Sinclair 210 8.4 -4.0 Reform UK Sam Wood-Brass 157 6.3 New Green Rachel Lowe 101 4.1 New Liberal Democrats Ian David Ellis 89 3.6 -2.6 And another Reform passes Con
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 23:29:20 GMT
Castle Denny Wilson (Labour Party) 1,130 Keith Samme (Reform UK) 346 Christopher Rose (Local Conservatives) 160 Mia Coupland (Lib Dems) 98 Dawn Jackson (Green Party) 62 2023 Labour Stephen Foster* 1,235 65.0 Conservative Paul Burke 258 13.6 Reform UK Peter Middleton 196 10.3 Liberal Democrats Mia Coupland 125 6.6 Green Gary Ogle 87 4.6 This is a third Reform passes Con.
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 23:27:23 GMT
REDHILL Alison Smith (Labour and Co-operative Party)* 931 Chris Eynon (Reform UK) 579 Susan Leishman (Local Conservatives) 156 Steven Dale (Lib Dems) 128 2023 Labour Co-op John Usher* 1,015 59.3 +3.0 Reform UK Neil Farrer 262 15.3 New Conservative Sue Leishman 215 12.6 -4.6 Liberal Democrats Steven Dale 133 7.8 -13.9 Green Justine Merton-Scott 87 5.1 +0.4 That is a second and more emphatic Reform usurpation. In 2023 they just beat the Conservative but this time they are much cloer to Labour.
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 23:24:04 GMT
COPT HILL Kevin Johnston (Labour Party) 1,432* Michael Lorraine (Reform UK) 395 Benjamin Davies-Scott (Local Conservatives) 316 Andrew Robertson (Green Party) 245 Nana Boddy (Lib Dems) 105 2023 Labour Melanie Thornton* 1,273 50.8 +6.5 Independent Phillip John Dowell 564 22.5 New Conservative Pat Francis 364 14.5 -3.1 Green Andrew Robertson 122 4.9 -2.3 Reform UK Sheila Samme 98 3.9 New Liberal Democrats Nana Boddy 83 3.3 +0.5 That is a significant advance by Reform and to take 2nd place from the Conservatives is an iconic moment if it becomes a trend tonight.
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Hull
May 2, 2024 23:14:38 GMT
Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 23:14:38 GMT
~40 minute delay due to the count centre being evacuated apparently LET THE SACRED BOX STUFFING COMMENCE.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 21:38:58 GMT
Cough!! I was there first by some years and have already done the entire list of the new constituencies; but I completely endorse your plan and will adopt the same policy from today. Western Isles Stone Ludlow ... it is! Good on yer! I am delighted to learn that carlton43 and I are both revolting. Well! We are natives ..... It's what we do.
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 14:32:49 GMT
Will this site be reporting on by-election results as they are announced? Yes. They stopped doing them 40-minutes before they are announced two years back when told that was illegal!
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 13:58:35 GMT
Pretty quiet when I voted in Highgate around 9.30 am. Yes! Vote Early! Vote Often!!!
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 12:07:55 GMT
Problem is that most of west Staffordshire along the Shropshire border is now in Stafford constituency. The fact that there is no sensible name for this constituency emphsises its artificiality. I much dislike gazetteer names of the type we see here so I'm starting a small one-person revolt that takes the form of referring to such a constituency only by the first meaningful element of its name. I'll try to apply this as generally as I can, although making an exception for a handful of long-established and familiar double-barrel names such as Orkney & Shetland or Thirsk & Malton. In this case, the policy means the seat should be called Stone, which would be fine. Alternatively, I note that the newly-drawn seat actually bears more than a passing resemblance to W Staffs as it existed 1885-1918.
Interestingly, the 1885 Boundary Commission proposed 'Penkridge' for this seat, but Parliament, although agreeing the boundary, changed the name to W Staffs. Cough!! I was there first by some years and have already done the entire list of the new constituencies; but I completely endorse your plan and will adopt the same policy from today. Western Isles Stone Ludlow ... it is! Good on yer!
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YouGov
May 2, 2024 11:11:12 GMT
Post by carlton43 on May 2, 2024 11:11:12 GMT
Lowest Tory YouGov Score? Does anyone here believe this? A few points only between Reform and Conservative. Really. There is no evidence at all that this is other than Grade A total bollocks. Why does anyone look at this quackery. I prefer honest divination from birds entrails. Makes more sense. These people would in earlier times have sold snake oil. They have the gall to term it scientific.
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Post by carlton43 on May 1, 2024 22:37:53 GMT
Questions asked in this poll, in the order they appear in the tables, which I assume is the order in which they were asked: - "What is your main source of getting local news?" - "What are the main national problems?" - "What are the main problems in the area where you live?" - "Can you tell me the name of the MP representing your area?" (83% answered correctly) - "How would you rate Penny Mordaunt?" (only asked to those who had named her on the previous question, ratings from 1 to 10) - "If there was a General Election tomorrow, would you go to vote?" - "Which political party would you vote for?" - "If Penny Mordaunt was not the Conservative Party candidate, which political party would you vote for?" I've seen worse, but this is hardly ideal survey design. Edit: oh, and it might not come as a great surprise to know that the client was Portsmouth North Conservative Association. 83% unprompted name recognition seems quite impressive. I'm not sure whether there aresimilar results polls on name recognition, but I get the impression that pushing past 80% will always be hard considering the forgetful, apathetic and recently arrived. I consider it astonishing and probably completely wrong.
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