neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 18, 2021 6:33:23 GMT
Any idea why they picked this child? I can’t find any details of his career or education. I think the key there is 'child.' He's young enough to be active whereas the rest were a set of old duffers, in large part trying to get back a job or job prospect they lost 22 years ago.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 17, 2021 20:25:17 GMT
Around a year younger than Baroness Penn. This made me wonder how young you need to be to be the youngest member of the doffers, so I googled Lord Harlech and the "knowledge panel" informs me he died in 1985. (Which happens to be a year before the birth of the grandson who is the current Lord Harlech. Still too young to serve in the Italian Senate!) And only just old enough for the US one. That Lord Harlech had an impressive nose.
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Post by neilm on Jul 16, 2021 13:03:15 GMT
How many of those are equivalent to the charges/allegations that the MPs listed above are facing though? A fair few in the cases of Webbe and Begum, because harassment and benefit fraud get investigated a fair bit.
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Post by neilm on Jul 15, 2021 17:23:23 GMT
No one is wishing anyone else dead. Obviously, if, say, Teodoro Obiang falls sick I don't think there will be a torrent of well wishers from this forum. greatkingrat is absolutely correct, it is only doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ who has gone down this cul-de-sac. It is fine to speculate. The only restriction, really, should be actively campaigning before someone has actually died.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 15, 2021 15:33:23 GMT
Around a year younger than Baroness Penn.
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Post by neilm on Jul 15, 2021 13:28:25 GMT
Of course, I was just saying the likelihood of conviction is probably lower then Webbe,Bagum and probably McNeil. The normal tests the CPS use to justify prosecution will have been applied. So the ones they make up on a case by case basis then.
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Post by neilm on Jul 15, 2021 9:31:51 GMT
This is a bail hearing, no? At Westminster Magistrates. It only got sent for trial in June so I can't see it being heard at the Old Bailey just yet. He is on unconditional bail from Westminster magistrates. I was under the impression that he was due to reappear for something admin related. I can't see him on the listing for either Westminster Magistrates or Central Criminal today.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 15, 2021 7:15:02 GMT
. In the case of Wakefield,'s,MP,it is today at the Old Bailey. Given it a historical groping (if I remember correctly) allegation, I would be very suprised if he is convicted. It's a teenage boy (now an adult) so he may have a less than sympathetic hearing from the jury.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 15, 2021 7:12:35 GMT
Do you know when every trial is set to begin? . In the case of Wakefield,'s,MP,it is today at the Old Bailey. This is a bail hearing, no? At Westminster Magistrates. It only got sent for trial in June so I can't see it being heard at the Old Bailey just yet.
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Post by neilm on Jul 14, 2021 20:46:19 GMT
Rob Roberts now speaking in the House of Commons. Jess Phillips is trying to intervene, unsuccessfully. I was going to watch but someone texted me to say she'd piped up, so I didn't bother.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jul 14, 2021 9:42:14 GMT
"They're a bunch of velvet pockets" is one I heard recently.
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Post by neilm on Jul 14, 2021 9:39:43 GMT
The Bishop is broadly correct: elections in Northern Ireland operate under different political 'rules.' Parliamentary elections don’t. That is indeed the case. Except they aren't in GB and vote shares for major parties should exclude them.
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Post by neilm on Jul 14, 2021 0:02:35 GMT
Your wording was arguably fine, given that GB-wide shares are normally used these days in this context (as with most opinion polling) and johnloony was quoting the UK-wide figure which includes Northern Ireland which operates under different political "rules". Labour's share in 2017 for GB was around 41%. You wrote "normally"; you meant "incorrectly". Elections to the House of Commons in Northern Ireland do not operate under different rules; they are done under the same rules as the rest of the UK. The Bishop is broadly correct: elections in Northern Ireland operate under different political 'rules.'
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Post by neilm on Jul 11, 2021 16:27:37 GMT
I read somewhere that Ron Paul had such a solid personal vote because he'd delivered so many babies in his district.
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Post by neilm on Jul 11, 2021 16:10:48 GMT
Are we expecting ward breakdowns?!
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Post by neilm on Jul 11, 2021 16:06:16 GMT
They'd probably increase their vote a fair bit and quite possibly get second depending on how inept Labour is at holding onto their votes in Haverhill. However it's very likely that they wouldn't win or get particularly close for numerous reasons: Labour still being in a comfortable, albeit very distant, second on the 2019 results (starting from second is really the key for the Lib Dems gaining Tory seats in by-elections), the seat being quite Brexitty and West Suffolk not being an area of any real Lib Dem local strength. Haverhill is pretty white van man territory with lots of people who moved there because there weren't any black people. If the LibDems were to make an impact it would have to be down to a local issue which would motivate the voters in the rural parts of the seat. Lots of extra housing bringing 'undesirables' to the area would be an excellent tactic, then!
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Post by neilm on Jul 11, 2021 16:05:25 GMT
The Crazy Bear is slightly further and more fun. These days you're more likely to find a Russian prostitute sleeping with a military attache there.
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Post by neilm on Jul 11, 2021 14:54:14 GMT
Rise and fall of the Conservative share. Rise and fall of the Conservative + Labour total share. Beyond that, it’s sometimes hard to tell if the Labour share grew or shrank, and the same for the others. If the Conservative share was at one end, the Labour at the other end, and the others in the middle, that might work in a seat where the top two were always the same. Or in a seat where there was a maximum of 3 parties standing. It does tell me that the total shares add up to 100%, so I suppose it is slightly useful. One of the much commented on themes in recent years was the "return to two Party politics" in 2017. This presentation is good for illustrating the extent of that on a seat by seat basis. Personally I can tell the relative size of the Labour vote share quite easily, but I know this is not entirely normal. I wonder why people say it's 2017, when it was clearly 2015 (at least in England, it was one party politics in Scotland).
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Post by neilm on Jul 10, 2021 17:39:50 GMT
You learn something every day.
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Post by neilm on Jul 9, 2021 19:09:24 GMT
It is, however, worth noting that whilst the west of the seat has a Hindu plurality, the eastern parts of the seat generally have a larger Muslim population. According to the 2011 census, there were just under 35k Hindus in the constituency, nearly 22k Muslims and almost 8k Sikhs (many of whom are themselves not fans of Modi.) We should also note that the Hindu population in Leicester East is overwhelmingly working-class, whereas in London the Tories have primarily made inroads with middle-class Hindus. And we should remember that Leicester did not have an especially good experience of lockdown. Certainly playing communal politics poorly could work out quite badly for Labour, but I think that applies to everybody else too. Well, in a similarly flippant tone to my previous comment let me suggest that if the seats fall vacant around the same time it would make sense for Labour to hold the byelections the same day because at least George Galloway can then stand in only one of them. It would be interesting if someone else tried to move the writ. If I was a mischievous Tory backbencher I'd move it the day after either seat was declared vacant.
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