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Post by thirdchill on Jun 28, 2019 15:30:14 GMT
I can see three states going from Dem to GOP in 2020: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire. That's 16 Electoral Votes up for grabs. The first two might (the rural areas of both swung significantly to Trump last time), can't see New Hampshire going that way though. Trump doesn't have that much appeal there.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 28, 2019 16:06:31 GMT
“Girlfriend, you are so on”
I’m dead 😂😂😂
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 28, 2019 16:09:29 GMT
Biden defending his opposition to desegregation was painful. Harris’ attack was prepared and it worked. Biden ain’t becoming president if he’s this dire every debate.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 28, 2019 16:12:14 GMT
Biden defending his opposition to desegregation was painful. Harris’ attack was prepared and it worked. Biden ain’t becoming president if he’s this dire every debate. Apparently my fellow member of an ethnic minority, Elizabeth Warren, came off very well.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 28, 2019 16:14:44 GMT
Apparently my fellow member of an ethnic minority, Elizabeth Warren, came off very well. The Democrats should be proud that they not only have the 1st openly gay presidential candidate in a debate but also the 1st openly Native American. Progress.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 28, 2019 16:41:34 GMT
Apparently my fellow member of an ethnic minority, Elizabeth Warren, came off very well. The Democrats should be proud that they not only have the 1st openly gay presidential candidate in a debate but also the 1st openly Native American. Progress. Does it count if you're openly Native American but are borderline taking the piss?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 28, 2019 16:43:11 GMT
America's first ethnic minority president was a Democrat.
Martin van Buren.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 28, 2019 16:54:48 GMT
I can see three states going from Dem to GOP in 2020: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire. That's 16 Electoral Votes up for grabs. The first two might (the rural areas of both swung significantly to Trump last time), can't see New Hampshire going that way though. Trump doesn't have that much appeal there. Can’t see Minnesota swinging either; they broke even on Congressional Districts changing hands last year, but the GOP pick-up by Hagedorn was way closer than it should have been. Tina Smith was much closer to Amy Klobuchar in the Senate special than anybody expected, and Tim Walz was relatively easy in the Governor’s race. At Presidential level unless Trump starts winning back the suburban voters outside the Twin Cities he’s not going to be nearly as close as he was in 2016.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 28, 2019 17:34:36 GMT
I unironically hope Marianne Williamson surges in the polls and qualifies for the next few debates. She pretty much single-handedly made the debate entertaining.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 28, 2019 17:53:46 GMT
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Post by seanryanj on Jun 28, 2019 18:07:00 GMT
Harris clear winner overall but boy this is a marathon, I think Biden won't do it!
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 28, 2019 19:54:28 GMT
Yes, after her death she'll be in that "another realm of consciousness", where she wants to be (and i not!).
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 28, 2019 20:13:31 GMT
Yes, after her death she'll be in that "another realm of consciousness", where she wants to be (and i not!). I think she’s already there.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 28, 2019 22:41:12 GMT
As weirdoes called Williamson in politics go, she's not even close to being the worst.
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Izzyeviel
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I stayed up for Hartlepools
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Post by Izzyeviel on Jun 29, 2019 1:04:48 GMT
As weirdoes called Williamson in politics go, she's not even close to being the worst. It's nice to have one that seems to be kind hearted for once. I've been following her on twitter for years, I had no idea she was like this.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2019 20:32:14 GMT
The first two might (the rural areas of both swung significantly to Trump last time), can't see New Hampshire going that way though. Trump doesn't have that much appeal there. Can’t see Minnesota swinging either; they broke even on Congressional Districts changing hands last year, but the GOP pick-up by Hagedorn was way closer than it should have been. Tina Smith was much closer to Amy Klobuchar in the Senate special than anybody expected, and Tim Walz was relatively easy in the Governor’s race. At Presidential level unless Trump starts winning back the suburban voters outside the Twin Cities he’s not going to be nearly as close as he was in 2016. Not sure you can base things on the Senate elections - the Democrats won Michigan by 15% in 2014 and Hilary lost the state.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 29, 2019 20:45:09 GMT
Can’t see Minnesota swinging either; they broke even on Congressional Districts changing hands last year, but the GOP pick-up by Hagedorn was way closer than it should have been. Tina Smith was much closer to Amy Klobuchar in the Senate special than anybody expected, and Tim Walz was relatively easy in the Governor’s race. At Presidential level unless Trump starts winning back the suburban voters outside the Twin Cities he’s not going to be nearly as close as he was in 2016. Not sure you can base things on the Senate elections - the Democrats won Michigan by 15% in 2014 and Hilary lost the state. Agree they’re not perfect, and a lot can depend on incumbency, quality of opponent, etc. Specifically with Michigan the GOP candidate was very weak, made few public appearances after a meltdown in May, and was dogged by financial questions (she loaned her a/c more than her stated net worth), to the point where the Party abandoned her in September pulling all their spending. And not forgetting Michigan was one of those States symptomatic of the ineptitude of the Clinton campaign, making few if any campaign stops despite polls showing it was close. Minnesota last year was slightly different in that the Republicans got their candidate of choice and Tina Smith was unknown and largely untested having only been elected once before as Lieutenant Governor.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 30, 2019 0:34:57 GMT
And not forgetting Michigan was one of those States symptomatic of the ineptitude of the Clinton campaign, making few if any campaign stops despite polls showing it was close. As someone, who saw the possibility of Trump gaining the RustBelt and who in consequence saved the wikipedia-page for "StateWide OpinionPolls" exactly at MI for months, i can assure You, that Mrs.Clinton was always ahead clearly by ~5% (in 1 poll they were tied and in another 1 - published on the last day - Trump had suddenly a 2%-lead). Because of these failed OpinionPolls in MI/WI/PA i admittingly did also not expect a BlueCollar-surge and Trump-victory.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2019 18:45:53 GMT
I just thought post the vote here that he would take those states.
Can't say I bet on PA, WI etc but I just felt he'd take them.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Jul 2, 2019 16:01:32 GMT
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