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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 2, 2019 16:23:01 GMT
Only nobody can win here!
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 2, 2019 16:35:24 GMT
Only nobody can win here! Based on that only Biden, Harris, Warren and possibly Sanders and Buttigieg look like getting delegates as you have to get circa 15% in a caucus to be viable, so the latter two would be reliant on picking up support from those below 15% who can opt for second, third or lower choice candidates.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 2, 2019 16:46:53 GMT
Only nobody can win here! Based on that only Biden, Harris, Warren and possibly Sanders and Buttigieg look like getting delegates as you have to get circa 15% in a caucus to be viable, so the latter two would be reliant on picking up support from those below 15% who can opt for second, third or lower choice candidates. You have to imagine that this sets the scene for an insurgent to pull off a shock win in Iowa or NH and find momentum.
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Post by michael2019 on Jul 2, 2019 16:48:22 GMT
Only nobody can win here! Based on that only Biden, Harris, Warren and possibly Sanders and Buttigieg look like getting delegates as you have to get circa 15% in a caucus to be viable, so the latter two would be reliant on picking up support from those below 15% who can opt for second, third or lower choice candidates. In addition the 15% rule is by individual precinct and there may be variability in different precincts
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 2, 2019 16:51:30 GMT
Based on that only Biden, Harris, Warren and possibly Sanders and Buttigieg look like getting delegates as you have to get circa 15% in a caucus to be viable, so the latter two would be reliant on picking up support from those below 15% who can opt for second, third or lower choice candidates. You have to imagine that this sets the scene for an insurgent to pull off a shock win in Iowa or NH and find momentum. There’s still going to be pressure on Harris (and Booker); she has to perform well in South Carolina to demonstrate that she actually has appeal amongst African American voters (Sanders’ Achilles heel in 2016), and after that who is drawing support from Hispanic voters in Nevada.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 2, 2019 19:45:01 GMT
The funny thing is that Harris at best does the same if not worse among black voters. Her base in white liberals.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 2, 2019 19:47:38 GMT
The funny thing is that Harris at best does the same if not worse among black voters. Her base in white liberals. Yep, and in the only post-debate poll of African American voters (that I’ve seen) Biden had lost 5% with the gains going almost equally to Warren and Sanders, but still leaving Biden with a chunky lead.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 8, 2019 23:32:27 GMT
Rep Eric Swalwell of California becomes the first to drop out of the Democratic nomination marathon and will run for re-election to his House district.
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 9, 2019 17:12:10 GMT
Rep Eric Swalwell of California becomes the first to drop out of the Democratic nomination marathon and will run for re-election to his House district. I'm sure there was some other notable candidate who dropped out a few months back.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 9, 2019 17:50:35 GMT
Rep Eric Swalwell of California becomes the first to drop out of the Democratic nomination marathon and will run for re-election to his House district. I'm sure there was some other notable candidate who dropped out a few months back. Who? The Starbucks guy?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 9, 2019 18:12:32 GMT
Rep Eric Swalwell of California becomes the first to drop out of the Democratic nomination marathon and will run for re-election to his House district. I'm sure there was some other notable candidate who dropped out a few months back. There’s been a couple who’ve been considering running but then haven’t taken the plunge. One such, billionaire entrepreneur Tom Steyer, who is financing an “impeach Trump” campaign, has reversed course and, after saying he wouldn’t run, now is.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 9, 2019 19:58:25 GMT
I'm sure there was some other notable candidate who dropped out a few months back. Who? The Starbucks guy? Candidate. To go.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 9, 2019 22:48:14 GMT
Rep Eric Swalwell of California becomes the first to drop out of the Democratic nomination marathon and will run for re-election to his House district. I'm sure there was some other notable candidate who dropped out a few months back. Was it Hitler? Or Gary Barlow?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 10, 2019 0:19:42 GMT
I'm sure there was some other notable candidate who dropped out a few months back. Was it Hitler? Or Gary Barlow? No, it was West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda, who’s candidacy lasted precisely 40 days.
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 10, 2019 0:43:01 GMT
Was it Hitler? Or Gary Barlow? No, it was West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda, who’s candidacy lasted precisely 40 days. Glad to see my memory isn't going quite yet.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 10, 2019 1:35:53 GMT
No, it was West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda, who’s candidacy lasted precisely 40 days. Glad to see my memory isn't going quite yet. I confess to only remembering him after he was mentioned in a Washington Post article about Swalwell quitting and Steyer joining the race that I’ve read this evening.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 11, 2019 9:27:41 GMT
The Prohibition Party selected their candidates a while back; their initial nominee Bill Bayes of Mississippi (who was their Veep nominee in 2016) dropped out so the ticket is now Connie Gammon of Tennessee (moved up from Veep) and Phil Collins of Nevada.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2019 8:50:56 GMT
I think 2024 will be Gavin Newsom vs John James (I see James winning the 2020 Michigan Senate race).
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Jul 16, 2019 4:02:03 GMT
I think 2024 will be Gavin Newsom vs John James (I see James winning the 2020 Michigan Senate race). That's a brave prediction.
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Post by dizz on Jul 16, 2019 18:42:11 GMT
I think 2024 will be Gavin Newsom vs John James (I see James winning the 2020 Michigan Senate race). That's a brave prediction. I say this with great affection - but not for someone who thinks as much as conservativeestimate does.
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