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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 16, 2019 15:55:58 GMT
There's a fairly long tradition of New York City mayors completely flopping in presidential races.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 16, 2019 16:46:17 GMT
And only a couple of days after Bullock. They all want to be 'the one' to beat Trump, and yet with a field this crowded, they're probably set to pick a candidate just as abrasive, populist and free of nuance. Realistically it’s highly likely there’ll be a pretty sizeable post-Iowa cull and probably another sometime after South Carolina/Nevada. I wonder what the lowest-ever winning share in an Iowa caucus is and whether this time out will beat it? Paging Richard Allen.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 8, 2019 14:16:15 GMT
Joe Sanberg recently ruled himself out, which leaves Abrams as the only major Democrat speculated to enter the race at a late stage.
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Post by thisguy on Jun 9, 2019 20:00:54 GMT
Politico article on the Trump campaign deploying staffers very early on to the Dem leaning states of New Mexico, New Hampshire and Nevada as an alternative route to 270 due to flagging approval ratings in some rust belt states. New Mexico and Nevada seem ambitious with Nevada especially trending blue with a fast growing Hispanic population. Although the Trump campaign will likely spend $1bn+ for this election so probably has much more money to throw at punts this time than in 2016. www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/06/04/trump-campaign-2020-election-map-1352437
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 9, 2019 20:24:27 GMT
Yeah, I seriously doubt New Mexico or Nevada will be more Republican than Michigan or Wisconsin. If you’re a Republican and winning New Mexico then you’ve already won the electoral college. Theres no point spending money on states that won’t affect the outcome of the election.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 9, 2019 20:27:13 GMT
Yeah, I seriously doubt New Mexico or Nevada will be more Republican than Michigan or Wisconsin. If you’re a Republican and winning New Mexico then you’ve already won the electoral college. Theres no point spending money on states that won’t affect the outcome of the election. They could probably tip Nevada but not Wisconsin if Nevada received particular attention and with the right candidate matchup (I can just about see it), but a financial advantage only got Clinton so far, so surely it alone can't do much more for Trump.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 9, 2019 20:40:24 GMT
They could probably tip Nevada but not Wisconsin if Nevada received particular attention and with the right candidate matchup (I can just about see it), but a financial advantage only got Clinton so far, so surely it alone can't do much more for Trump. Nevada barely trended Republican in 2016 while the tipping point states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan trended much harder. On a good night Trump could win Nevada, but I find it difficult to see how Nevada could end up as the tipping point state.
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 9, 2019 20:41:55 GMT
They could probably tip Nevada but not Wisconsin if Nevada received particular attention and with the right candidate matchup (I can just about see it), but a financial advantage only got Clinton so far, so surely it alone can't do much more for Trump. Nevada barely trended Republican in 2016 while the tipping point states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan trended much harder. On a good night Trump could win Nevada, but I find it difficult to see how Nevada could end up as the tipping point state. It might not be the tipping point, but it could be an aberration - let's say the Dems pick a rust belt-friendly candidate (Biden?) and campaign very hard in Wisconsin. If Trump took a slightly more libertarian approach and then focused attention on it, I could see it being less likely to turn Dem than Wisconsin.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 9, 2019 20:52:12 GMT
It might not be the tipping point, but it could be an aberration - let's say the Dems pick a rust belt-friendly candidate (Biden?) and campaign very hard in Wisconsin. If Trump took a slightly more libertarian approach and then focused attention on it, I could see it being less likely to turn Dem than Wisconsin. Nevada is actually quite white working class and very union heavy. I struggle to see a strategy that sees it trend relatively hard in the Republican direction compared to the rust belt.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 9, 2019 22:25:15 GMT
It might not be the tipping point, but it could be an aberration - let's say the Dems pick a rust belt-friendly candidate (Biden?) and campaign very hard in Wisconsin. If Trump took a slightly more libertarian approach and then focused attention on it, I could see it being less likely to turn Dem than Wisconsin. Nevada is actually quite white working class and very union heavy. I struggle to see a strategy that sees it trend relatively hard in the Republican direction compared to the rust belt. The only way to win Nevada is to depress Hispanic turnout in Clark County (Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno) to the point of the big rural turnout in the remainder of the State outweighs them. The last time it worked was the 2014 midterms. The only rationale really behind this spending is likely to be to help downballot candidates, specifically the House - two swingy Districts in Nevada, one ancestraly Republican in New Mexico they lost last year, one in New Hampshire that seems to alternate almost every two years, and to give the impression of being a team player.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 8:39:57 GMT
Arizona could go Dem and Minnesota GOP in 2020. A blue Sun Belt and a red Rust Belt would be a reverse of the 2004 election.
I can see three states going from Dem to GOP in 2020: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire. That's 16 Electoral Votes up for grabs.
Trump only wins Colorado, Nevada and Virginia if Bernie runs independently and gets 10%. New Mexico isn't going red.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 24, 2019 8:45:02 GMT
Retired Admiral Joe Sestak, who served a term in Congress from Pennsylvania before challenging the late Arlen Spector in the Democratic Senate primary, has announced he’s seeking the Democratic nomination for President.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jun 24, 2019 11:26:15 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2019 12:54:15 GMT
Trump will have his own "bribes" to offer the base, no doubt.....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 12:56:58 GMT
Or he can point to jobs created in states like Wisconsin etc...
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 24, 2019 16:56:17 GMT
Arizona could go Dem and Minnesota GOP in 2020. A blue Sun Belt and a red Rust Belt would be a reverse of the 2004 election. I can see three states going from Dem to GOP in 2020: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire. That's 16 Electoral Votes up for grabs. Trump only wins Colorado, Nevada and Virginia if Bernie runs independently and gets 10%. New Mexico isn't going red. There's no way Bernie runs as an independent.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2019 16:56:50 GMT
Arizona could go Dem and Minnesota GOP in 2020. A blue Sun Belt and a red Rust Belt would be a reverse of the 2004 election. I can see three states going from Dem to GOP in 2020: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire. That's 16 Electoral Votes up for grabs. Trump only wins Colorado, Nevada and Virginia if Bernie runs independently and gets 10%. New Mexico isn't going red. There's no way Bernie runs as an independent. Schulz might!
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 24, 2019 18:04:22 GMT
Georgia's Presidential Primary will be held on March 24th next year. No other state will hold a primary on that date thus giving it extra importance.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 24, 2019 18:57:36 GMT
There's no way Bernie runs as an independent. Schulz might! Apparently ill health has forced him to lay off all his staff and he’s saying he’ll only consider running if the Democrats nominate Sanders.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Jun 28, 2019 15:25:17 GMT
I didn't see the debates, but according to social media Biden/Sanders were the big losers, Harris/Booker/Buttigieg came out best & there's a lot of love for Marianne Williamson.
I can't find the tweet, but apparently Biden's staff are furious with him for going off script & being overly combative.
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