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Post by Antiochian on Feb 21, 2017 19:04:58 GMT
Ahhh.. so its a race between her finishing off the Euro or the Euro finishing off France? The Euro is a ticking bomb. France is incapable of reform. It is all just a question of time. France's economy is a complete mess and its banks are in a dire state I can't but agree.. The damn bomb has a wet fuse though as the wretched thing never goes off. The IMF are not going to give money to Greece (Trump will crucify them if he found out.. but he has other distractions) so the Germans are trying to eke the Greek crisis beyond both the Dutch and the French elections. Can they hold it beyond the German elections? If the Euro goes off like a vial of financial nitroglycerine there won't be any EU for the UK to Brexit from..
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 21, 2017 19:40:50 GMT
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Post by Antiochian on Feb 21, 2017 20:04:07 GMT
I agree... but that is also nothing I did not know before.
As someone up close and personal with the IMF's behaviour in Argentina there is a big difference indeed. The IMF has given Greece a free pass that it only would have given to the most indigent African country and yet the size of Greece's debt well exceed Argentina's. The IMF have pulled their punches on this one for years. My reference to Trump is not that he knows a damn about what's going on in Greece but that it will be much harder for the IMF (despite its preemptive mutterings) to get away with giving Greece another go around the Monopoly Board with Washington in a hostile mood. Do you think that Obama would have pushed the IMF to stick it to Greece? No way...
Going back to the Argentine example history shows that the IMF has one mantra and that is that the IMF gets paid. Argentina knew that. It paid of the IMF and then Argentina had no more trouble on that front. The rest of the creditors ended up with 15 years in the courts and ultimately got skimmed (skinned?) by the hedge funds. The IMF here made the mistake of re-upping with the Germans and for the first time looks like losing its shirt with the lesser mortals of the financial biosphere. Could not happen to a better pack of financial drug-pushers.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 21, 2017 21:06:18 GMT
I see that Madame LePen is setting her stall out. Having gone to Lebanon meet religious and other leaders of what was once French colonial territory, obviously wanting to be seen in a presidential way, LePen was due to meet the Grand Mufti, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian. His office instructed that she must attend with her head covered.....so she told him to get stuffed and cancelled the meeting. I think she did absolutely right and its a shame that Theresa May doesn't take a similar stand rather than bowing and scraping to a bunch of misogynistic head cases who live in the dark ages. www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-lepen-idUSKBN1600R6Thought this was a great way for MLP to make a point. However I initially wondered why the Grand Mufti would have agreed to have taken part in this particular bit of agitprop. After all it must have been obvious that something like this would happen, given Le Pen's political platform. Which suggests that the Grand Mufti was on board with this obviously staged event but then why would the Grand Mufti agree to this? Why wouldn't he just avoid a meeting to avoid being made the butt of a political point scoring? Then I remembered. Syria dominates Lebanon and the Lebanese government is allied to Assad. Assad wants MLP to win the French election, for obvious reasons. My guess is that the Grand Mufti got instructions from important people to go along with this bit of political theatre. That's probably about it, really. Another thing for her is that this isn't just an obvious dog-whistle to the usual places, it's a fairly powerful message to the large Armenian and Lebanese Maronite populations in France (the former often are from Armenia via Lebanon). These are communities that have tended to vote in a Gaullist manner in the past- indeed, the infamous Patrick Devedjian is an example, or Balladur. If Le Pen wants to win, we're talking several hundred thousand keen voters who could be swayed.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 21, 2017 21:55:40 GMT
If true then something to deplore surely - the pollution of democracy is hardly a positive - not to applaud like a performing seal.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,306
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 21, 2017 22:05:05 GMT
(not that dodgy leaflets are exactly comparable)
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 21, 2017 23:17:47 GMT
My view is simple....this can't go on for ever. It can as long as there's money to be squeezed out of Germany. Re-education and penance for their grandfathers' sins will see to that.
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Post by Antiochian on Feb 21, 2017 23:21:33 GMT
(not that dodgy leaflets are exactly comparable) I wouldn't know. I can't read it. I am not familiar with it so I can't comment Something about Blair? Without my magnifying glass I am sure the grey suit is Tony!
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 21, 2017 23:45:01 GMT
I wouldn't know. I can't read it. The relevant part is easier to read than the text on this forum. Conservative leaflet from the Hodge Hill by-election.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 2:58:46 GMT
I can not find a head-to-head in the article. Their first round numbers are: With Bayrou Marine Le Pen 27% (+1.5) Francois Fillon 20% (+3) Emmanuel Macron 17% (-5) Benoît Hamon 12% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12% Francois Bayrou 6% Without Bayrou Marine Le Pen 28% François Fillon 21% Emmanuel Macron 18.5% Benoît Hamon 13% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13%
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Feb 22, 2017 7:16:50 GMT
I can not find a head-to-head in the article. Their first round numbers are: With Bayrou Marine Le Pen 27% (+1.5) Francois Fillon 20% (+3) Emmanuel Macron 17% (-5) Benoît Hamon 12% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12% Francois Bayrou 6% Without Bayrou Marine Le Pen 28% François Fillon 21% Emmanuel Macron 18.5% Benoît Hamon 13% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% The head-to-head is mentioned in the last paragraph and is shown in the slideshow. Fillon 56% to Le Pen 44%.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 22, 2017 7:29:42 GMT
Not really on subject, but I'm amazed by the amount of posters who can read French.
And obviously, Le Figaro reports on this poll, it fits the editor line.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 11:08:27 GMT
Latest Opinion Way poll
Le Pen 26 Macron 22 Fillon 21 Hamon 14 Melenchon 11
2nd round:
Macron 59 Le Pen 41 Fillon 58 Le Pen 42
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 22, 2017 11:16:19 GMT
The evidence for that in previous elections is at best partial. FN have *over*performed in the polls as often as underperformed recently.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 22, 2017 11:27:15 GMT
Latest Opinion Way poll Le Pen 26 Macron 22 Fillon 21 Hamon 14 Melenchon 11 2nd round: Macron 59 Le Pen 41 Fillon 58 Le Pen 42 I wonder if there are any shy LePen voters in that? It's accounted for, if Le Pen is on 26 in a poll, it means she is around 22 in raw numbers (pollsters are known for adding 4 to FN score, roughly, to account for that).
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Feb 22, 2017 11:30:40 GMT
Not really on subject, but I'm amazed by the amount of posters who can read French. For a long time in the UK it's been the default foreign language taught in school. That started to change about ten years ago. I dropped it as soon as I could but have retained a fair amount. Speaking and definitely writing it is a different story for most posters, I imagine. It's easier to keep basic skills up to scratch these days with the availability of online newspapers, I think, as they're written in a more accessible style than some of the turgid grammatically correct stuff you get fed at school. There's a language skills thread somewhere- it might be interesting to revisit it if I can find it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 12:12:20 GMT
I've started trying to re-learn French again recently, having done it at GCSE and had a few (fairly unsuccessful) classes a few years ago.
Reading is the most straightforward and I can understand most of most articles. Listening I'm getting better at, but "full speed" regular spoken French is still very difficult. Actually listening to political speeches can be very useful as they tend to speak slowly and with clarity - Valls and Macron are especially good. Hamon mumbles a bit.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 22, 2017 12:59:55 GMT
I've started trying to re-learn French again recently, having done it at GCSE and had a few (fairly unsuccessful) classes a few years ago. Reading is the most straightforward and I can understand most of most articles. Listening I'm getting better at, but "full speed" regular spoken French is still very difficult. Actually listening to political speeches can be very useful as they tend to speak slowly and with clarity - Valls and Macron are especially good. Hamon mumbles a bit. Have you tried Michel Thomas's language courses?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 15:19:40 GMT
I've started trying to re-learn French again recently, having done it at GCSE and had a few (fairly unsuccessful) classes a few years ago. Reading is the most straightforward and I can understand most of most articles. Listening I'm getting better at, but "full speed" regular spoken French is still very difficult. Actually listening to political speeches can be very useful as they tend to speak slowly and with clarity - Valls and Macron are especially good. Hamon mumbles a bit. Have you tried Michel Thomas's language courses? My copy of his intermediate course arrived the day before my son was born so I've been a bit short of time to listen to it but I've heard good things.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 15:49:02 GMT
Bayrou has endorsed Macron. edit: in fact he has offered to form an "alliance".
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