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Post by John Chanin on Dec 20, 2019 10:10:28 GMT
More on Stoke-on-Trent, especially for John Chanin There is a new page on their web site from which we can back calculate electorates. Stoke on Trent North: 40,231 ballots; 58.91% turnout. So electorate is 68,292 (give or take) Stoke on Trent Central: 32,137 ballots; 57.99% turnout. So electorate is 55,418 (55,419 on the constituency result page) Stoke on Trent South: 39,776 ballots; 61.68% turnout. So electorate is 64,488 (give or take) Thanks, but I’d still like some responses to my general query up thread as to where the published electorate figures come from. Someone must know.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,964
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Post by ColinJ on Dec 20, 2019 10:14:21 GMT
Perhaps at the Press Association?
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 21, 2019 18:15:29 GMT
QUESTION Which constituency result most closely reflected the national vote share ? There are two ways of calculating it which give differing results (depending on whether you square the errors or take their absolute values). The two tend to give similar results, but not exactly the same. I've looked only at Great Britain so far. The closest to the national vote share is Wycombe, with Truro and Falmouth and Altrincham and Sale West taking second and third. Most of the seats in the top 20 are semi-safe Tory seats which have a decent Lib Dem presence: Bournemouth East, Colchester, Croydon South, Shrewsbury, Welwyn Hatfield, Monmouth, Rushcliffe, Derby North, Chipping Barnet, Filton and Bradley Stoke, Watford, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Bedford, Bournemouth West, Southport, and Hexham. Torridge and West Devon is exactly halfway through the list, being neither representative nor unrepresentative of the country. However, it is still a better reflection of vote share across Great Britain than any Scottish seat - East Lothian comes in at number 476 of 633, followed closely by Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath. The least representative seats (excluding Chorley) are Scottish seats with a big Lib Dem vote: the worst three are North East Fife, followed by Orkney and Shetland then Caithness, Sutherland, and Easter Ross. The worst in England are Brighton Pavilion, Liverpool Walton, and Knowsley, and the worst in Wales is Dwyfor Meirionnydd.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 21, 2019 18:25:48 GMT
QUESTION Which constituency result most closely reflected the national vote share ? The two closest were Penistone and Stocksbridge, closely followed by Wycombe.
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Post by edgbaston on Dec 22, 2019 0:05:18 GMT
Where was the historian David Starkey a Tory council candidate?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 22, 2019 1:15:30 GMT
Where was the historian David Starkey a Tory council candidate? Islington, 1986. He stood in Tollington ward in Islington North and came bottom of the three Tories, ninth overall, with 261 votes.
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Post by BossMan on Dec 22, 2019 8:41:50 GMT
Does a breakdown exist of 2019 general election results by county? Someone might have posted them already but it's impossible to keep up with everything.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 22, 2019 8:49:58 GMT
Does a breakdown exist of 2019 general election results by county? Someone might have posted them already but it's impossible to keep up with everything. It exists on my computer (1973 counties) I may have time to put it into some form that I can post on here this morning
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 22, 2019 9:06:08 GMT
| Con | Lab | LD | Brexit | Green | Nat | Oth | | | | | | | | | Cleveland | 43.2% | 40.3% | 4.0% | 8.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 3.3% | Durham | 40.6% | 40.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | Northumberland | 48.8% | 33.9% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | Tyne & Wear | 30.9% | 47.8% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 2.0% | Cheshire | 46.4% | 39.5% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | Cumbria | 52.5% | 29.0% | 14.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 1.1% | Greater Manchester | 34.9% | 47.9% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | Lancashie | 46.2% | 37.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 5.8% | Merseyside | 20.2% | 65.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 1.6% | Humberside | 55.7% | 29.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 1.0% | North Yorkshire | 54.4% | 25.5% | 14.7% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 2.5% | South Yorkshire | 32.3% | 42.3% | 7.8% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 1.7% | West Yorkshire | 39.7% | 46.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | Derbyshire | 52.3% | 34.7% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.5% | Leicestershire | 53.3% | 32.1% | 9.8% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.5% | Lincolnshire | 67.2% | 20.8% | 7.7% | 0.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 2.1% | Northamptonshire | 59.0% | 29.1% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.6% | Nottinghamshire | 47.4% | 37.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 4.3% | Hereford and Worcester | 61.8% | 21.8% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | Shropshire | 60.3% | 25.9% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 0.7% | Staffordshire | 61.6% | 28.2% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | Warwickshire | 57.1% | 26.9% | 12.0% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | West Midlands | 44.4% | 44.1% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | Bedfordshire | 49.8% | 34.2% | 9.0% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 3.0% | Cambridgeshire | 50.1% | 24.3% | 21.5% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% | Essex | 64.5% | 21.2% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 1.4% | Hertfordshire | 52.7% | 23.5% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 3.0% | Norfolk | 57.6% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.8% | Suffolk | 60.1% | 23.9% | 8.3% | 0.4% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 0.9% | Berkshire | 50.1% | 26.1% | 19.7% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | Buckinghamshire | 52.7% | 25.4% | 13.7% | 0.3% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 4.9% | East Sussex | 44.2% | 27.3% | 16.9% | 1.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | Hampshire | 57.0% | 20.4% | 17.3% | 0.3% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 1.0% | Kent | 60.1% | 25.0% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% | Oxfordshire | 46.6% | 20.8% | 29.4% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | Surrey | 53.7% | 12.7% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 2.2% | West Sussex | 56.3% | 22.6% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.9% | Avon | 41.7% | 35.7% | 15.8% | 0.9% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | Cornwall | 53.8% | 23.1% | 19.3% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 1.6% | Devon | 53.9% | 22.8% | 14.7% | 0.7% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 4.7% | Dorset | 58.3% | 18.4% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.5% | Gloucestershire | 54.2% | 22.9% | 17.1% | 0.3% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 0.7% | Somerset | 56.7% | 10.6% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 1.5% | Wiltshire | 57.8% | 20.5% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | Greater London | 32.0% | 48.1% | 14.9% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% | | | | | | | | | Borders | 48.4% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 38.8% | 0.0% | Central | 32.7% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 50.0% | 0.2% | Lothian | 20.8% | 23.9% | 11.6% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 40.8% | 0.3% | Fife | 17.8% | 21.0% | 15.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 42.6% | 0.0% | Grampian | 39.9% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 44.1% | 0.1% | Highland & Islands | 20.4% | 8.6% | 23.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 43.6% | 0.5% | Tayside | 29.0% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 51.8% | 0.3% | Strathclyde | 20.6% | 24.3% | 7.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 46.6% | 0.3% | Dumfries and Galloway | 45.0% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39.5% | 0.0% | | | | | | | | | Clwyd | 45.4% | 39.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 0.2% | 5.5% | 0.0% | Gwynedd | 32.8% | 29.8% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 31.9% | 0.0% | Dyfed | 38.3% | 30.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 0.3% | 21.9% | 0.0% | Powys | 55.6% | 12.6% | 30.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | Gwent | 37.0% | 41.9% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 0.2% | Mid Glamorgan | 27.5% | 47.6% | 2.6% | 9.1% | 0.8% | 10.2% | 2.2% | West Glamorgan | 30.2% | 48.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 1.0% | 7.3% | 0.8% | South Glamorgan | 33.5% | 51.5% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 0.5%
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(Scottish regions don't quite match constituency boundaries, ie there are cross 'region' constituencies such as Ochil & South Perthshire and D,C&T which I've assigned to the dominant region in each case)
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Post by BossMan on Dec 22, 2019 9:19:14 GMT
Thank you Pete Whitehead. I thought it might be you who would reply. I never thought I'd see the Conservatives ahead in Cleveland, County Durham and Northumberland.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 22, 2019 9:32:59 GMT
Thank you Pete Whitehead. I thought it might be you who would reply. I never thought I'd see the Conservatives ahead in Cleveland, County Durham and Northumberland. We've been ahead in Northumberland since 2015 (when we 'gained' it from the Lib Dems) though by extremely narrow margins in 2015 and 2017. Durham is extraordinary
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Post by BossMan on Dec 22, 2019 12:05:04 GMT
Wake up Swan. Past experience sometimes serves me ill. On occasion I subconciously think we're only capable of winning Hexham in that county.
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 22, 2019 12:43:25 GMT
Thank you Pete Whitehead . I thought it might be you who would reply. I never thought I'd see the Conservatives ahead in Cleveland, County Durham and Northumberland. West Midlands, Gwynedd.
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Post by BossMan on Dec 22, 2019 14:35:54 GMT
Thank you Pete Whitehead . I thought it might be you who would reply. I never thought I'd see the Conservatives ahead in Cleveland, County Durham and Northumberland. West Midlands, Gwynedd. I would agree they were impressive, although they have been Conservative inclined more recently. The Tories had a narrow lead over Plaid in Gwynedd in 1983 and carried West Midlands in 1983 and 1987.
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Post by froome on Dec 23, 2019 21:48:55 GMT
What are the rules regarding privacy at polling stations? I always assumed polling stations would be in a room or building that was used just for that purpose on that day.
I know there were many difficulties for authorities finding polling stations for this year's December election, but I was surprised when I was in Bristol to find that the main entrance to the central library was acting as a polling station. This meant that everyone who was going into the library had to walk right past the polling booths (the entrance is not large, so they would pass by quite close), which would have certainly made me feel uncomfortable had I had to vote there.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 23, 2019 21:53:10 GMT
What are the rules regarding privacy at polling stations? I always assumed polling stations would be in a room or building that was used just for that purpose on that day. I know there were many difficulties for authorities finding polling stations for this year's December election, but I was surprised when I was in Bristol to find that the main entrance to the central library was acting as a polling station. This meant that everyone who was going into the library had to walk right past the polling booths (the entrance is not large, so they would pass by quite close), which would have certainly made me feel uncomfortable had I had to vote there. Rule 32 of the Parliamentary Elections Rules ( Schedule 1 to the Representation of the People Act 1983) states: "32 (1)The presiding officer shall exclude all persons from the polling station except— (a)voters; (b)persons under the age of 18 who accompany voters to the polling station; (c)the candidates and their election agents; (d)the polling agents appointed to attend at the polling station; (e)the clerks appointed to attend at the polling station; (f)persons who are entitled to attend by virtue of any of sections 6A to 6D of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000; (g)the constables on duty; and (h)the companions of voters with disabilities. (1A)The presiding officer shall regulate the total number of voters and persons under the age of 18 who accompany them to be admitted to the polling station at the same time. (2)Not more than one polling agent shall be admitted at the same time to a polling station on behalf of the same candidate. (3)A constable or person employed by a returning officer shall not be admitted to vote in person elsewhere than at his own polling station under the relevant provision of this Act, except on production and surrender of a certificate as to his employment, which shall be in the prescribed form and signed by the prescribed officer of police or by the returning officer, as the case may be. (4)Any certificate surrendered under this rule shall forthwith be cancelled."
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Post by froome on Dec 24, 2019 9:17:00 GMT
Thanks David, that is what I assumed the rules would say. What they don't appear to say is what a polling station actually is, or rather how it is defined within a building that has other uses at the same time.
In the Bristol example, both voters and library users entered the building by the same door, to reach the foyer. Here, the polling booths were set up along the wall to the left. The library is reached by a door to the right, but the upstairs level is reached by walking straight ahead, so passing the polling booths. I can't recall precisely where the polling staff were, where the voters had to go first to get their ballot papers, but I think they may have been on the right hand side just past the library access. If so, it meant that library users heading for the upstairs level were walking between the polling staff and the polling booths.
However, even if that were not the case, I found myself (as a library user walking straight to the staircase), walking within a few feet of the polling booths, and could probably have touched the back of the person who was voting in the nearest one. There were many other people making the same journey at the same time.
So in this case the presiding officer couldn't have excluded anyone, as no polling station was defined on the ground, and they had a right of access through what constituted the polling station.
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Post by mick745 on Dec 26, 2019 21:05:03 GMT
Where could i get the seats in order of declaration from the recent general election please?
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Post by greenhert on Dec 27, 2019 1:04:21 GMT
You could download the Excel spreadsheet of constituency statistics from the Parliament website and it gives the declaration times within said spreadsheet. Use the sort function to list the declaration times from earliest to latest.
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 27, 2019 1:07:26 GMT
You could download the Excel spreadsheet of constituency statistics from the Parliament website and it gives the declaration times within said spreadsheet. Use the sort function to list the declaration times from earliest to latest. The one danger (potentially) is dealing with constituencies which declares before midnight, since sorting may put those last.
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