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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 14, 2019 13:53:06 GMT
Here's a question which has occurred to me. The Conservatives gained four seats in Bury, Bolton and Rochdale on very small majorities. On the proposed 600-seat boundaries how many of the successor seats are notionally Labour? I have a feeling the answer might be "all of them" but this looks like a nice exercise for those who are more skilled in calculating notional results than me. And would a new Tory seat instead emerge further east at Littleborough & Saddleworth?
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Post by redvers on Dec 14, 2019 21:17:26 GMT
Anyone got a list yet of seats where Labour increased its majority? Reading East, Canterbury, and Portsmouth South are three that come to mind.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 14, 2019 21:22:11 GMT
Anyone got a list yet of seats where Labour increased its majority? Reading East, Canterbury, and Portsmouth South are three that come to mind. Bristol North West, Cardiff North are another 2
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Post by andrewp on Dec 14, 2019 22:03:51 GMT
Anyone got a list yet of seats where Labour increased its majority? Reading East, Canterbury, and Portsmouth South are three that come to mind. The full list is 15 Battersea, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Bethnal Green and Bow, Bradford West, Bristol North West, Canterbury, Cardiff North, Croydon Central, Enfield Southgate, Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Liverpool Riverside, Poplar and Limehouse, Portsmouth South, Reading East
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,162
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 16, 2019 1:57:03 GMT
I try to find the constituency-results of GE'19 in a table (EXCEL/CSV/...) - can anyone help me, please?
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 16, 2019 2:55:09 GMT
Obviously this question has no definitive answer, but I'm curious. Is it likely that the Brexit Party were ahead in at least one ward? Looking at Barnsley (and its local results), somewhere like Darfield looks like a potential Brexit win, but how uniform is the vote likely to have been?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 16, 2019 8:30:44 GMT
I'd imagine it was fairly uniform in Barnsley - all the wards there are pretty similar in their demographic makeup
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Post by David Ashforth on Dec 16, 2019 8:56:24 GMT
I try to find the constituency-results of GE'19 in a table (EXCEL/CSV/...) - can anyone help me, please?
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 16, 2019 14:31:58 GMT
The errors in the Brexit vote in Middlesbrough, and the Green vote in Hull West have been picked up on the relevant threads.
However there are always errors on electorates, which are more difficult to correct as there is less interest in them. I’ve spotted 2 obvious ones, and would be grateful if anyone has the correct figures:
(a) Stoke North. The electorate is not 84,357. This would be at least 10,000 up on 2017 and gives a ludicrously low turnout even for Stoke. (b) Hazel Grove and Stockport are quoted as having the same electorate of 65,457. One of these is wrong.
I’d also like to know if anyone has spotted any other errors in the reported results. Unfortunately everyone uses the same feed for results these days so you can’t pick up errors by comparing sources.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,947
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Post by ColinJ on Dec 17, 2019 8:58:36 GMT
The errors in the Brexit vote in Middlesbrough, and the Green vote in Hull West have been picked up on the relevant threads. However there are always errors on electorates, which are more difficult to correct as there is less interest in them. I’ve spotted 2 obvious ones, and would be grateful if anyone has the correct figures: (a) Stoke North. The electorate is not 84,357. This would be at least 10,000 up on 2017 and gives a ludicrously low turnout even for Stoke. (b) Hazel Grove and Stockport are quoted as having the same electorate of 65,457. One of these is wrong. I’d also like to know if anyone has spotted any other errors in the reported results. Unfortunately everyone uses the same feed for results these days so you can’t pick up errors by comparing sources. Stockport electorate was 65,391 Hazel Grove electorate was 63,346 Some refined electorates from my neck of the woods: Harrow East: 72,106 Harrow West: 72,464 (up 2,667 from 2017 indicating the rate of housing development in central Harrow) Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: 72,816 I suspect if you trawl through all the local authority pages you will get the "true" electorates practically everywhere rather than the estimates produced for press and BBC etc. Sadly, Stoke council only give an electorate figure for their Central constituency, 55,419. They may of course update the others but the North figure in the papers is, as you say, bonkers.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 17, 2019 10:01:32 GMT
The errors in the Brexit vote in Middlesbrough, and the Green vote in Hull West have been picked up on the relevant threads. However there are always errors on electorates, which are more difficult to correct as there is less interest in them. I’ve spotted 2 obvious ones, and would be grateful if anyone has the correct figures: (a) Stoke North. The electorate is not 84,357. This would be at least 10,000 up on 2017 and gives a ludicrously low turnout even for Stoke. (b) Hazel Grove and Stockport are quoted as having the same electorate of 65,457. One of these is wrong. I’d also like to know if anyone has spotted any other errors in the reported results. Unfortunately everyone uses the same feed for results these days so you can’t pick up errors by comparing sources. Stockport electorate was 65,391 Hazel Grove electorate was 63,346 Some refined electorates from my neck of the woods: Harrow East: 72,106 Harrow West: 72,464 (up 2,667 from 2017 indicating the rate of housing development in central Harrow) Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner: 72,816 I suspect if you trawl through all the local authority pages you will get the "true" electorates practically everywhere rather than the estimates produced for press and BBC etc. Sadly, Stoke council only give an electorate figure for their Central constituency, 55,419. They may of course update the others but the North figure in the papers is, as you say, bonkers. Thank you. I have expressed elsewhere my puzzlement that figures on local authority websites almost never agree with published figures. If they were systematically lower I would assume it was to do with 18 year old qualifiers, but this isn’t the case. On one hand I really don’t trust the ability of local authorities to add up (from experience at working for them). On the other hand where do the PA or the BBC or whoever collates the published figures, get them from, if not from local authority electoral departments. More problems also seem to arise when constituencies spread across different local authorities. I know there is a “lead” council for every constituency, but not all seem interested in accurate figures from the part of the constituency outwith their authority ( and the other LA may not care much either as they are not administering the election). Can any of our psephological experts here give better information on how the process works, and where the published electorate figures come from? I know turnout is a somewhat niche interest, but it’s a niche in which many participants in this forum reside.
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Post by redvers on Dec 17, 2019 12:58:07 GMT
Anyone got a list yet of seats where Labour increased its majority? Reading East, Canterbury, and Portsmouth South are three that come to mind. The full list is 15 Battersea, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Bethnal Green and Bow, Bradford West, Bristol North West, Canterbury, Cardiff North, Croydon Central, Enfield Southgate, Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Liverpool Riverside, Poplar and Limehouse, Portsmouth South, Reading East Thanks for that. Surely though Liverpool Riverside was a reduced majority?
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Post by andrewp on Dec 17, 2019 18:48:43 GMT
The full list is 15 Battersea, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, Bethnal Green and Bow, Bradford West, Bristol North West, Canterbury, Cardiff North, Croydon Central, Enfield Southgate, Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Liverpool Riverside, Poplar and Limehouse, Portsmouth South, Reading East Thanks for that. Surely though Liverpool Riverside was a reduced majority? Yes, you are right, so it’s 14
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Post by David Ashforth on Dec 18, 2019 14:56:16 GMT
EDIT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Dec 19, 2019 16:55:46 GMT
Can anyone identify the young MP whom Theresa May was having a good conversation with on the way back from the Lords today? Attachment Deleted
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Post by tonyhill on Dec 19, 2019 17:26:40 GMT
Can anyone tell me what AMACDL stood for? They contested 14 out of the 15 Eastleigh Borough Council seats in 1987 winning a total of 177 votes, which must in itself be something of a record.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 19, 2019 17:29:15 GMT
Can anyone identify the young MP whom Theresa May was having a good conversation with on the way back from the Lords today? I think it's Sara Bratcliffe, new Conservative MP for Hyndburn timokane can probably confirm..
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 20, 2019 0:37:42 GMT
Can anyone identify the young MP whom Theresa May was having a good conversation with on the way back from the Lords today? I think it's Sara Bratcliffe, new Conservative MP for Hyndburn timokane can probably confirm.. Britcliffe, but yes it is. http://instagr.am/p/B6RODuxpeDb
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 20, 2019 8:13:59 GMT
Like the new MP for West Bromwich East, would be one for the good looking politicos thread were it not for the fact she's young enough to be my daughter
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,947
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Post by ColinJ on Dec 20, 2019 10:03:06 GMT
More on Stoke-on-Trent, especially for John Chanin There is a new page on their web site from which we can back calculate electorates. Stoke on Trent North: 40,231 ballots; 58.91% turnout. So electorate is 68,292 (give or take) Stoke on Trent Central: 32,137 ballots; 57.99% turnout. So electorate is 55,418 (55,419 on the constituency result page) Stoke on Trent South: 39,776 ballots; 61.68% turnout. So electorate is 64,488 (give or take)
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