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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 24, 2019 12:32:50 GMT
I count 17, which is surely the highest since 1983?
Altrincham and Sale West: former Penistone MP Smith (LD) Beaconsfield: Grieve (Ind) Broxtowe: Soubry (TIG) Bury South: Lewis (Ind) Birkenhead: Field under his own party label Cities of London and Westminster: former Stretham MP Umunna (LD) Derby North: Williamson (Ind) Eddisbury: Sandbach (LD) Finchley and Golders Green: former Wavertree MP Berger (LD) Guildford: Milton (Ind) Ilford South: Gapes (TIG) Kensington: outgoing East Surrey MP Gyimah (LD) Luton South: Shuker (Ind) Nottingham East: Leslie (TIG) SW Hertfordshire: Gauke (Ind) Totnes: Wollaston (LD) Wokingham: former Bracknell MP Lee (LD) Thank you for this! 18. You missed Roger Godsiff in Hall Green. I wouldn't have thought that anyone will miss him but there you are.
Also, if we're counting the Tory Purge whip withdrawals as defections, strictly speaking four MPs are standing for reelection after having defected twice, from the Tories to independent and back again - Steve Brine (Winchester), Greg Clark (Tunbridge Wells), Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon), Caroline Nokes (Romsey).
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,848
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Post by jamie on Nov 25, 2019 17:32:13 GMT
Has anybody got estimates for what lead the Conservatives and Labour would have needed to win a majority in 2017 (assuming UNS)? Preferably a vaguely credible source if possible.
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 25, 2019 18:38:16 GMT
Has anybody got estimates for what lead the Conservatives and Labour would have needed to win a majority in 2017 (assuming UNS)? Preferably a vaguely credible source if possible. You can experiment with a UNS calculator to work it out yourself. Here's the UK Polling Report one.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 25, 2019 18:42:02 GMT
18. You missed Roger Godsiff in Hall Green. I wouldn't have thought that anyone will miss him but there you are.
Also, if we're counting the Tory Purge whip withdrawals as defections, strictly speaking four MPs are standing for reelection after having defected twice, from the Tories to independent and back again - Steve Brine (Winchester), Greg Clark (Tunbridge Wells), Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon), Caroline Nokes (Romsey).
Seven. Anne-Marie Morris was temporarily suspended early on in the Parliament, Mike Hill was suspended and had the whip restored later, and Stephen Lloyd resigned the whip in 2018, sitting as an independent up until the end of the Parliament.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,055
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 26, 2019 9:46:09 GMT
Has anybody got estimates for what lead the Conservatives and Labour would have needed to win a majority in 2017 (assuming UNS)? Preferably a vaguely credible source if possible. 2017:Con lead for bare majority 3.1%,Lab lead for bare majority 7.3% and 0.7% Lab lead needed to draw level on seats From the Nuffield study on the election
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,848
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Post by jamie on Nov 26, 2019 11:25:27 GMT
Has anybody got estimates for what lead the Conservatives and Labour would have needed to win a majority in 2017 (assuming UNS)? Preferably a vaguely credible source if possible. 2017:Con lead for bare majority 3.1%,Lab lead for bare majority 7.3% and 0.7% Lab lead needed to draw level on seats From the Nuffield study on the election Exactly what i was looking for, thank you.
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 26, 2019 17:38:54 GMT
18. You missed Roger Godsiff in Hall Green. I wouldn't have thought that anyone will miss him but there you are.
Also, if we're counting the Tory Purge whip withdrawals as defections, strictly speaking four MPs are standing for reelection after having defected twice, from the Tories to independent and back again - Steve Brine (Winchester), Greg Clark (Tunbridge Wells), Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon), Caroline Nokes (Romsey).
Seven. Anne-Marie Morris was temporarily suspended early on in the Parliament, Mike Hill was suspended and had the whip restored later, and Stephen Lloyd resigned the whip in 2018, sitting as an independent up until the end of the Parliament. Point taken - while the first two of these are of a somewhat different character than the "purge", I simply hadn't noticed Lloyd was back in the LD fold. I had blithely assumed he was standing down!
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,055
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 4, 2019 13:56:49 GMT
2017:Con lead for bare majority 3.1%,Lab lead for bare majority 7.3% and 0.7% Lab lead needed to draw level on seats From the Nuffield study on the election Exactly what i was looking for, thank you. I was looking at the Nuffield Study last night and on a straight swing with no change in other parties shares a 12.5% Tory lead would yield a 98 seat majority-it shows the leads needed for 3 figure majorities nowadays have to be pretty big!
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Post by BossMan on Dec 5, 2019 17:57:29 GMT
Does a list or spreadsheet exist online for the constituency estimates of the YouGov MRP poll?
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Post by greatkingrat on Dec 5, 2019 19:37:42 GMT
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Post by BossMan on Dec 5, 2019 19:51:41 GMT
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Post by nobodyimportant on Dec 13, 2019 8:27:01 GMT
In a seat with candidates from all three of Con, Lab and Lib/Lib Dem, has there ever been a candidate who was defeated despite getting a vote share that was higher than the 46.3% that the Lib Dems got in Cheltenham this time?
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Post by warofdreams on Dec 13, 2019 8:33:18 GMT
In a seat with candidates from all three of Con, Lab and Lib/Lib Dem, has there ever been a candidate who was defeated despite getting a vote share that was higher than the 46.3% that the Lib Dems got in Cheltenham this time? Yes, only in 2017, the Conservatives took 46.4% and lost in Dudley North.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Dec 13, 2019 8:35:38 GMT
In a seat with candidates from all three of Con, Lab and Lib/Lib Dem, has there ever been a candidate who was defeated despite getting a vote share that was higher than the 46.3% that the Lib Dems got in Cheltenham this time? Yes, only in 2017, the Conservatives took 46.4% and lost in Dudley North. My complete ignorance of the midlands strikes again. edit: actually, it's worse than just that. I misread Winchester which is apparently 46.6% LD. Any that beat that one?
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Post by warofdreams on Dec 13, 2019 8:40:20 GMT
Yes, only in 2017, the Conservatives took 46.4% and lost in Dudley North. My complete ignorance of the midlands strikes again. edit: actually, it's worse than just that. I misread Winchester which is apparently 46.6% LD. Any that beat that one? Yep, the Conservatives in Newcastle under Lyme in 2017 lost with 48.1%.
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 13, 2019 16:56:51 GMT
Does someone have a list of constituencies by area? Is Canterbury actually the largest Labour seat by area? Or Lancaster & Fleetwood? Or somewhere else?
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Post by edgbaston on Dec 13, 2019 17:17:45 GMT
Does someone have a list of constituencies by area? Is Canterbury actually the largest Labour seat by area? Or Lancaster & Fleetwood? Or somewhere else? Its Lancaster
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Post by andrewteale on Dec 13, 2019 19:32:51 GMT
Here's a question which has occurred to me.
The Conservatives gained four seats in Bury, Bolton and Rochdale on very small majorities. On the proposed 600-seat boundaries how many of the successor seats are notionally Labour? I have a feeling the answer might be "all of them" but this looks like a nice exercise for those who are more skilled in calculating notional results than me.
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Post by greatkingrat on Dec 13, 2019 21:01:18 GMT
BossMan what has happened to the post Corbyn election analysis and chat thread? It seems to have disappeared?
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Post by BossMan on Dec 13, 2019 23:09:23 GMT
BossMan what has happened to the post Corbyn election analysis and chat thread? It seems to have disappeared? You should be able to find it in General UK Politics now if you search for it. I had moved it the other week due to moderation issues.
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