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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 15, 2020 19:57:48 GMT
These travel to work areas strike me as a load of utter bollocks. I know hardly anyone in areas like St Albans or (especially) Watford who travel to work in Luton. Some do obviously, but it would hardly be the dominant place where people work. Far more would commute to London or to other nearby localities They're rather solidly based on evidence. I don't know that area, but perhaps people from Luton are rather more likely to travel to work in Watford or St Albans? And as has already been said, this can vary a lot according to age group, full-/part-time work, etc, so the people you know may not be typical. Even when you factor into account age group, the idea that most people in Kingston upon Thames work at Slough or Heathrow, as opposed to within London, is frankly risible. I'd need to see a lot of evidence before I accepted that.
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 15, 2020 23:28:55 GMT
This was the link for alternate TTWAs I meant to share: ons.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=397ccae5d5c7472e87cf0ca766386cc2I particularly enjoyed the travel by train one. There's a lot of noise where rail services are poor, but the South East of England grabs Dorset and Northants at that scale. Meanwhile, Cardiff and Bristol are sharply distinct, as if the border were an actual barrier. I suppose house prices on the English side are so high that you'd have to be mad to live in some shoebox in South Gloucestershire and commute to Cardiff. But it's interesting that Bristolians don't want to move to Wales. Liverpudlians seem to have no such scruples. I actually know someone who lives in Cardiff and commutes by train to Bristol. One major factor in Bristolians not wanting to move to Wales was the Severn Bridge tolls, but they were scrapped at the end of 2018. The TTWAs based on the 2021 census may well be different in this area than those based on the 2011 census..
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 16, 2020 8:26:41 GMT
They're rather solidly based on evidence. I don't know that area, but perhaps people from Luton are rather more likely to travel to work in Watford or St Albans? And as has already been said, this can vary a lot according to age group, full-/part-time work, etc, so the people you know may not be typical. Even when you factor into account age group, the idea that most people in Kingston upon Thames work at Slough or Heathrow, as opposed to within London, is frankly risible. I'd need to see a lot of evidence before I accepted that. I think that age is a big factor in this odd-looking split. At 16-24 and 25-34, both Kingston and Heathrow (but not Slough) are in London. At 35-49, Heathrow defects west, but Kingston stays with London. Then at 50-64, London splits into three, including a big West London including Kingston, Heathrow, and Slough. At 65-74, London just shatters, Kingston gets its own tiny TTWA, Heathrow goes in a tiny Hounslow one, and Slough goes with half of Buckinghamshire. I think that it's the way that London vanishes in the higher age groups that's resulting in the split overall.
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Post by alexrichards on Jan 16, 2020 13:08:01 GMT
Even when you factor into account age group, the idea that most people in Kingston upon Thames work at Slough or Heathrow, as opposed to within London, is frankly risible. I'd need to see a lot of evidence before I accepted that. I think that age is a big factor in this odd-looking split. At 16-24 and 25-34, both Kingston and Heathrow (but not Slough) are in London. At 35-49, Heathrow defects west, but Kingston stays with London. Then at 50-64, London splits into three, including a big West London including Kingston, Heathrow, and Slough. At 65-74, London just shatters, Kingston gets its own tiny TTWA, Heathrow goes in a tiny Hounslow one, and Slough goes with half of Buckinghamshire. I think that it's the way that London vanishes in the higher age groups that's resulting in the split overall. The 65-74 gets funky in other places as well- Leicester and Corby merge but also apparently contain a few odd bits in scattered central London, which is probably to do with very senior management people making up a larger proportion of stuff and not getting smoothed out by the secondary algorithim.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 16, 2020 13:29:57 GMT
Even when you factor into account age group, the idea that most people in Kingston upon Thames work at Slough or Heathrow, as opposed to within London, is frankly risible. I'd need to see a lot of evidence before I accepted that. I think that age is a big factor in this odd-looking split. At 16-24 and 25-34, both Kingston and Heathrow (but not Slough) are in London. At 35-49, Heathrow defects west, but Kingston stays with London. Then at 50-64, London splits into three, including a big West London including Kingston, Heathrow, and Slough. At 65-74, London just shatters, Kingston gets its own tiny TTWA, Heathrow goes in a tiny Hounslow one, and Slough goes with half of Buckinghamshire. I think that it's the way that London vanishes in the higher age groups that's resulting in the split overall. Slough definitely makes sense as an area on its own (possibly with some of its hinterland), since the trading estate provides a huge number of jobs and it tends not to have many commuters - Crossrail could change that when it comes to fruition. Heathrow and Kingston probably also have decent numbers of jobs, but would make more sense being grouped in with London than with Slough. There will be commuters from Slough to Heathrow but the likes of Hounslow, Staines, etc will look far more to London. The different breakdowns are fascinating though. I wasn't surprised to see London splitting into several pieces when you look at travel by bus, for example.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 16, 2020 14:54:37 GMT
This was the link for alternate TTWAs I meant to share: ons.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=397ccae5d5c7472e87cf0ca766386cc2I particularly enjoyed the travel by train one. There's a lot of noise where rail services are poor, but the South East of England grabs Dorset and Northants at that scale. Meanwhile, Cardiff and Bristol are sharply distinct, as if the border were an actual barrier. I suppose house prices on the English side are so high that you'd have to be mad to live in some shoebox in South Gloucestershire and commute to Cardiff. But it's interesting that Bristolians don't want to move to Wales. Liverpudlians seem to have no such scruples. I actually know someone who lives in Cardiff and commutes by train to Bristol. One major factor in Bristolians not wanting to move to Wales was the Severn Bridge tolls, but they were scrapped at the end of 2018. The TTWAs based on the 2021 census may well be different in this area than those based on the 2011 census.. I doubt that bridge tolls were a factor for travel by train.
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 16, 2020 23:51:02 GMT
Broxbourne 2019. No changes based on 2015. No split wards (not taking account of by-elections or defections).
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Post by David Ashforth on Jan 22, 2020 10:58:36 GMT
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 25, 2020 1:08:58 GMT
South Camridgeshire 2018. LD 30 C 11 Lab 2 Ind 2. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2018 were: Cambourne: 2C/1Lab Fen Ditton and Fulbourn: 2LD/1C Girton: Ind/C
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 25, 2020 22:47:35 GMT
Three Rivers 2019. Changes based on 2015: LD gain from C Chorleywood South and Maple Cross Dickinsons Gade Valley (confirming a by-election gain) Oxhey Hall and Hayling (confirming a by-election gain) Penn and Mill End No split wards (not taking account of by-elections or defections).
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 25, 2020 23:25:14 GMT
Those boundaries are really odd thanks to Watford. I'm surprised there haven't been more moves to merge the two as has been seen with other similarly linked councils like Bournemouth. While they apparently integrated some functions a few years ago, the mayor of Watford opposed a full merger then, so perhaps there's a degree of political resistance.
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 26, 2020 15:50:17 GMT
Brentwood 2019. Changes based on 2015: Lab gain from C Brentwood South LD gain from C Brentwood North Brentwood West Shenfield Warley Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Shenfield is 2C/1LD and the Conservatives are defending in May. Tipps Cross is C/Ind and the independent councillor is up in May. That completes Essex 2016 on LEAP.
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 26, 2020 18:43:44 GMT
Burrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrnley 2019. Changes based on 2015: Burrnley and Padiham Independent Parrty gain from C Whittlefield with Ightenhill Burrnley and Padiham Independent Parrty gain from Lab Rosegrove with Lowerrhouse Burrnley and Padiham Independent Parrty gain from LD Gannow Grn gain from Lab Trinity LD gain from Lab Rosehill with Burrnley Wood UKIP gain from Lab Hapton with Parrk Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections, as this is a but of a challenge in Burrnley): Gannow is 2BPIP/1LD and the Liberal Democrats are defending in May. Rosegrove with Lowerrhouse is 2Lab/1BPIP and Labour are defending in May. Trinity is 2Grn/1Lab and Labour are defending in May. Whittlefield with Ightenhill is BPIP/C/LD and the Liberal Democrats are defending in May. That completes the North of England 2016 on LEAP.
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 27, 2020 8:06:53 GMT
Stevenage 2019. Changes based on 2015: Lab gain from C Bandley Hill Old Town LD gain from Lab Chells Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Chells is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending in May. Old Town is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in May. That completes Hertfordshire 2016 on LEAP.
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Post by David Ashforth on Jan 29, 2020 15:01:03 GMT
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 30, 2020 0:24:13 GMT
Runnymede 2019. C 26 Runnymede Independent Residents Group 6 LD 3 Ind 3 Lab 2 Grn 1. New ward boundaries. Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Addlestone North is C/Grn/Ind. In 2019 the Green and Independent councillors tied for second and third place; lots were drawn to see who got which term, and the result of that is that the Greens are defending in May. Egham Hythe is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in May. Ottershaw is 2Ind/1C and the Conservatives are defending in May. That completes the thirds councils for 2016 on LEAP. There are six result sets from that year still to do, all of which are halves councils.
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 2, 2020 18:02:41 GMT
First in a new series of halves councils is Nuneaton and Bedworth 2018. Changes based on 2014: C gain from Grn Weddington C gain from Lab Arbury Attleborough Bulkington (confirming a by-election gain) Exhall Galley Common Heath Poplar Slough Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Attleborough is C/Lab and Labour are defending in May. Bulkington is C/Lab and Labour are defending in May. Exhall is C/Lab and Labour are defending in May. Heath is C/Lab and Labour are defending in May. Poplar is C/Lab and Labour are defending in May. Slough is C/Lab and Labour are defending in May. Weddington is C/Grn and the Greens are defending in May.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,726
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Post by Adrian on Feb 3, 2020 0:45:20 GMT
Those boundaries are really odd thanks to Watford. I'm surprised there haven't been more moves to merge the two as has been seen with other similarly linked councils like Bournemouth. While they apparently integrated some functions a few years ago, the mayor of Watford opposed a full merger then, so perhaps there's a degree of political resistance. I've got nothing against LAs co-operating, but can we please stop bundling them together into supercouncils, least of all for reasons of cartographic aesthetics. Voters in towns are usually different to voters in the countryside, and it's much better for democracy if they have separate councils.
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 3, 2020 0:53:31 GMT
Those boundaries are really odd thanks to Watford. I'm surprised there haven't been more moves to merge the two as has been seen with other similarly linked councils like Bournemouth. While they apparently integrated some functions a few years ago, the mayor of Watford opposed a full merger then, so perhaps there's a degree of political resistance. I've got nothing against LAs co-operating, but can we please stop bundling them together into supercouncils, least of all for reasons of cartographic aesthetics. Voters in towns are usually different to voters in the countryside, and it's much better for democracy if they have separate councils. In the case of Watford and Three Rivers, the voters aren't that different in the two districts. Are people in Abbots Langley, Leavesden, or South Oxhey that different to people in Watford? For most of the length of the boundary, it barely seems to exist on the ground, and two of those fit very naturally into Watford's constituency anyway! Chorleywood and potentially Rickmansworth are a little further from Watford, but they could easily be put into Dacorum along with the more rural bits of Gade Valley ward. I agree that the rise of "supercouncils" isn't great - I instinctively flinch at the whole county unitaries, with the worst of all being Cornwall and Durham who span vast areas and incredibly varied communities. But the abolition of Three Rivers would be more like the creation of Somerset West and Taunton - two relatively small councils merging into a more typically sized one.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,726
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Post by Adrian on Feb 3, 2020 0:59:01 GMT
They're rather solidly based on evidence. I don't know that area, but perhaps people from Luton are rather more likely to travel to work in Watford or St Albans? And as has already been said, this can vary a lot according to age group, full-/part-time work, etc, so the people you know may not be typical. Even when you factor into account age group, the idea that most people in Kingston upon Thames work at Slough or Heathrow, as opposed to within London, is frankly risible. I'd need to see a lot of evidence before I accepted that. People within the areas are more likely to work within the area than outside it. It would appear that people in Luton/Kingston are more likely to work in Luton/Kingston (or elsewhere in the TTWA) than in Central London. There's enough commuting between the parts of the TTWA to make sense to combine it as one area rather than separate areas for the different towns, but that might not be more than a few percent.
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