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Post by andrewteale on Aug 16, 2019 19:06:53 GMT
Derby 2019. Changes based on 2015: C gain from Lab Chaddesden Derwent Ind gain from C Chellaston LD gain from Lab Abbey Blagreaves UKIP gain from Lab Alvaston Boulton Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Abbey is 2Lab/1LD and Labour are defending in 2020. Boulton is 2UKIP/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2020. Chellaston is 2C/1Ind and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Mackworth is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2020.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 17, 2019 11:11:06 GMT
This is a really interesting thread with a few pretty maps
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 17, 2019 12:07:17 GMT
My own constituency or Blaydon is listed as one of the worst Tory underperformances. Ex coal mining seat turned commuter belt with below average unemployment is usually a recipe for Tory success as seen in the Midlands and Yorkshire, but in Blaydon they are 28% behind and struggle to outpoll Labour in even the most upper middle class parts of Whickham. You can see a similar underperformance next door in North West Durham and the post below shows a map of Labour’s over/underperformances and shows neighbouring Hexham as a big Labour overperformance as well.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 17, 2019 12:17:37 GMT
Map of 2017 Labour performance in relation to expected performance based upon demographics.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 17, 2019 12:24:56 GMT
Map of 2017 Labour performance in relation to expected performance based upon demographics. Odd choice of colouring on this map, where the reddest areas are the, er, least red... Interesting though. Looks like Merseymike is in a little bubble of people who think like him. But then we know that already.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 17, 2019 12:50:01 GMT
If Labour are overperforming in North Norfolk and Westmorland I'd love to see what theye get there when they're underperforming. Or maybe the map doesn't show what it claims?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 17, 2019 12:53:24 GMT
If Labour are overperforming in North Norfolk and Westmorland I'd love to see what theye get there when they're underperforming. Or maybe the map doesn't show what it claims? As with the Conservative map, Labour overperformances are blue, underperformances are red.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 17, 2019 12:56:56 GMT
If Labour are overperforming in North Norfolk and Westmorland I'd love to see what theye get there when they're underperforming. Or maybe the map doesn't show what it claims? As with the Conservative map, Labour overperformances are blue, underperformances are red. I'm referring to the second map where the overperformances by Labour are Green. Both these seats (where Labour polled below 10% in 2017) are dark green. I assume it is a function of them being clearly Conservative underperformances due obviously to the unusual Lib Dem strength, but it indicates a flaw in the model
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Aug 17, 2019 20:13:15 GMT
And he's done a little slideshow of all the ultra-marginals:
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Post by johnloony on Aug 18, 2019 5:56:07 GMT
The areas are given as square miles but the numbers are actually square kilometres.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 18, 2019 16:18:11 GMT
Rochford 2019. Changes based on 2016 when the current ward boundaries were introduced: C gain from UKIP Foulness and the Wakerings Roche North and Rural Ind gain from C Wheatley Foulness and the Wakerings was uncontested. Split wards are (not taking account of defections): Foulness and the Wakerings is 2C/1UKIP and UKIP are defending in 2020. Hawkwell West is 2Rochford District Residents/1C but the Conservatives have gained a seat from the Residents in a by-election and will defend that gain in 2020. Hockley is 2Rochford District Residents/1C and the Residents are defending in 2020. Sweyne Park and Grange is 2C/1Rochford District Residents; the Rochford District Residents seat has a by-election pending and the winner of that by-election will be up in 2020. Wheatley is C/Ind/Rayleigh Ind and the Rayleigh Independent councillor is up in 2020.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 18, 2019 16:23:57 GMT
Rochford 2019. Changes based on 2016 when the current ward boundaries were introduced: C gain from UKIP Foulness and the Wakerings Roche North and Rural Foulness and the Wakerings. One of the great ward names.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2019 16:28:42 GMT
Rochford 2019. Changes based on 2016 when the current ward boundaries were introduced: C gain from UKIP Foulness and the Wakerings Roche North and Rural Foulness and the Wakerings. One of the great ward names. Could be a pagan metal band.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 23, 2019 23:02:38 GMT
The Greatest Town in the Known Universe 2019. Changes based on 2015: C gain from Lab Breightmet Hulton Farnworth and Kearsley First gain from Lab Farnworth Kearsley Horwich and Blackrod First gain from Lab Horwich and Blackrod Horwich North East LD gain from C Westhoughton North and Chew Moor LD gain from Lab Westhoughton South Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Breightmet is 2C/1Lab; the Labour seat is up in 2020 but their councillor has defected to the Liberal Democrats. Farnworth is 2FKF/1Lab, but Farnworth and Kearsley First have gained the Labour seat in a by-election and will defend that gain in 2020. Horwich and Blackrod is 2Lab/1HBF and Labour are defending in 2020. Horwich North East is 2Lab/1HBF and Labour are defending in 2020. Hulton is 2C/1Lab, but the Conservatives have gained the Labour seat in a by-election and will defend that gain in 2020. Kearsley is 2FKF/1UKIP and UKIP are defending in 2020. Little Lever and Darcy Lever is 2UKIP/1Lab and UKIP are defending in 2020. Westhoughton North and Chew Moor is 2C/1LD and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Westhoughton South is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2020.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 26, 2019 18:15:43 GMT
Plymouth 2019. Changes based on 2015: Lab gain from C Peverell Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Budshead is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2020. Moor View is 2C/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2020. Peverell is 2Lab/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Southway is 2Lab/1C and Labour are defending in 2020.
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 31, 2019 21:20:52 GMT
St Albans 2019. Changes based on 2015: Ind gain from C Redbourn Lab gain from C London Colney LD gain from C Batchwood Marshalswick North Marshalswick South Park Street St Peters Verulam LD gain from Lab Sopwell Split wards are (not taking account of by-elections or defections): Batchwood is 2Lab/1LD and Labour are defending in 2020. Marshalswick South is 2LD/1C and the Conservatives are defending in 2020. Park Street is 2LD/1C and the Liberal Democrats are defending in 2020. Redbourn is 2Ind/1C and the independents are defending in 2020. St Peters is 2LD/1Grn and the Green Party are defending in 2020. Sopwell is 2LD/1Lab and Labour are defending in 2020.
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yorkshireluke
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Post by yorkshireluke on Sept 1, 2019 15:20:21 GMT
I consider this one to be quite visually pleasing: South Gloucestershire, Post May 2019 Election.
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 1, 2019 23:50:07 GMT
I consider this one to be quite visually pleasing: South Gloucestershire, Post May 2019 Election. I have to say that given Bristol's "reputation" (for being rather left liberal leaning), it's surprising how much of its suburbia is staunchly Conservative - if anything they're stronger there than in the rural areas out towards Yate.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 2, 2019 6:34:42 GMT
Most of the wards in Bristol West are certainly rather left liberal leaning. The rest of the city is mostly not. There are quite Brexity Labour voting council estates in Bristol South. A classic suburban marginal in Bristol North West.
And then of course, as you say there is some Conservative leaning suburbia outside of the city boundary in Kingswood and in Filton and Bradley Stoke
Outside of London, Bristol probably has as wider variety of areas as any English City.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2019 10:42:01 GMT
Compared to 1992 the Tories have fallen back a lot but like in Brighton they have their holdouts in the city.
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