Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2019 20:42:14 GMT
As has been pointed out elsewhere the most baffling seat on this list is Devon Central. Time to rename that Exeter Outer.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 20, 2019 20:43:31 GMT
As has been pointed out elsewhere the most baffling seat on this list is Devon Central. And as has been discussed on that thread, it isn't really that baffling. Lots of movement out from Exeter, and a seat which is increasingly becoming more 'alternative'. I would still stay 25% is higher than most would think it would be. If it was Con 55, Lib Dem 25, Lab 15, Green 5, that would probably be about expected, even allowing for the Exeter influence,
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 20, 2019 20:50:52 GMT
Of the six seats held by the SNP in 2010, four are held by the SNP and two by the Conservatives. In those seats, the Conservatives had a vote share greater than the SNP (by 0.11%) in 2017 and a swing towards them of 14.27%.
In the eleven Scottish seats held by the Lib Dems in 2010, the Lib Dems finished third in the total vote across them in both 2017 and 2019. They won 23.8% of the vote in 2019, up from 22.4% in 2017. They won 41.1% across these seats in 2010.
In the 41 Scottish seats held by Labour in 2010, the Conservatives were only behind Labour's vote share across them by 1.1% in 2019, as Labour finished third in fourteen of those seats and fourth in one.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2019 12:25:13 GMT
Lib Dem vote share in 2019 in seats formerly held by Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem leaders
Orkney - 44.8% North Devon - 29.9% Berwickshire - 8.1% Yeovil - 31.1% Ross - 24.6% North East Fife - 43.1% Sheffield Hallam - 33.4% Westmorland - 48.9% Twickenham - 56.1% East Dunbartonshire - 36.8%
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 22, 2019 19:20:11 GMT
Tory net seat changes 1987/2019:-
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Post by greenhert on Dec 22, 2019 19:35:44 GMT
As has been pointed out elsewhere the most baffling seat on this list is Devon Central. Time to rename that Exeter Outer. Whilst parts of it can be considered satellite villages of Exeter, Okehampton most certainly is not.
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Post by greenhert on Dec 22, 2019 19:38:58 GMT
Tory net seat changes 1987/2019:- Keep in mind that most of those counties have acquired at least one extra seat since 1987 through major boundary changes. Also, you could have replaced the asterisks with zeros.
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Post by greenhert on Dec 22, 2019 20:02:23 GMT
Labour majorities in Leeds seats,1992 vs 2019: Leeds East: 29.4% vs 14.4% Leeds West: 29.0% vs 26.2 Leeds Central: 39.5% vs 39.1% Leeds North East: -8.6% vs 32.9% Leeds North West: -15.7% vs 21.8% if you had told me even 5 years ago that Leeds East would be the least safe Labour seat of the five, I’d have laughed. Nottingham North is Labour's most marginal seat in Nottinghamshire which is also laughable. Labour were also closer to winning Rushcliffe than Mansfield (where Ken Clarke ran and lost in 1966). Also look at Leicester. Leicester West still remained the most marginal for Labour despite being the only Labour seat in Leicester in 1983. Leicester South, held by the Conservatives in February 1974, is now easily the safest Labour seat in Leicester.
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 22, 2019 20:03:37 GMT
Tory net seat changes 1987/2019:- Write that up for Labour as well? Hilarious London figure, of course.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2019 23:02:09 GMT
Tory net seat changes 1987/2019:- In 1987 Labour had a Welsh leader and Thatcher was MP for a London seat but 87 is still the Tory peak in London.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,056
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 23, 2019 14:07:22 GMT
But the incumbent government was a minority LAb govt who were ejected...
Perhaps I wasn't clear what I meant. I meant a government once they're in and reached their peak majority once they've started to lose seats haven't kept on losing seats until they are finally ejected from office
Yeah it wasn't a very good example, though from one election to the next it kind of works. Otherwise I think 1865 maybe well history was made after 154 years!
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,056
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 23, 2019 14:19:18 GMT
For completeness I thought I'd finish off my exit poll series-until 2024!
2019:
Again unchanged boundaries from 2017. GB shares Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, Lib Dem 11.8%, Brexit Party 2.1%, Green 2.8%, Oth 5.6%. UK seats Con 365, Lab 203, Lib Dem 11, SNP 48,Plaid Cymru 4, Green 1, Northern Ireland 18-Con majority of 80 BBC/ITN/Sky News:
Again done by IPSOS MORI(they have bought out the part of GFK NOP who previously joined with them on the exit poll). This time at 144 polling stations which may have been the same ones from 2017. The sample size was quoted by IPSOS MORI as 19607 but other sources give 22790 or 23790 voters.
Again no vote shares were broadcast(I'll post them if I find them in the future as I will for 2010-2017).
The UK seat forecast was close again:Con 368, Lab 191, Lib Dem 13, SNP 55,Plaid Cymru 3,Green 1,Northern Ireland 18,Other 1. Con majority of 86.
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 23, 2019 19:29:55 GMT
Tory net seat changes 1987/2019:- Write that up for Labour as well? Hilarious London figure, of course. 1983 for Labour 209 v 202:-
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,186
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Post by Chris from Brum on Dec 23, 2019 21:14:36 GMT
Lib Dem vote share in 2019 in seats formerly held by Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem leaders Orkney - 44.8% North Devon - 29.9% Berwickshire - 8.1% Yeovil - 31.1% Ross - 24.6% North East Fife - 43.1% Sheffield Hallam - 33.4% Westmorland - 48.9% Twickenham - 56.1% East Dunbartonshire - 36.8% I suppose for completeness you ought to include the modern equivalents of Glasgow Hillhead, Plymouth Devonport, Tweeddale Ettrick and Lauderdale, and Caithness and Sutherland. And I'm not sure that Berwickshire qualifies. (If you want to be a true completist wrt the Gang of Four, there's also Stockton-on-Tees and Crosby, neither of which exist as such nowadays.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2019 21:45:56 GMT
Lib Dem vote share in 2019 in seats formerly held by Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem leaders Orkney - 44.8% North Devon - 29.9% Berwickshire - 8.1% Yeovil - 31.1% Ross - 24.6% North East Fife - 43.1% Sheffield Hallam - 33.4% Westmorland - 48.9% Twickenham - 56.1% East Dunbartonshire - 36.8% I suppose for completeness you ought to include the modern equivalents of Glasgow Hillhead, Plymouth Devonport, Tweeddale Ettrick and Lauderdale, and Caithness and Sutherland. And I'm not sure that Berwickshire qualifies. (If you want to be a true completist wrt the Gang of Four, there's also Stockton-on-Tees and Crosby, neither of which exist as such nowadays. Why doesn't Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk qualify when David Steel sat for Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles from 1965 to the seat's abolition in 1983?
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,186
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Post by Chris from Brum on Dec 23, 2019 22:04:45 GMT
I suppose for completeness you ought to include the modern equivalents of Glasgow Hillhead, Plymouth Devonport, Tweeddale Ettrick and Lauderdale, and Caithness and Sutherland. And I'm not sure that Berwickshire qualifies. (If you want to be a true completist wrt the Gang of Four, there's also Stockton-on-Tees and Crosby, neither of which exist as such nowadays. Why doesn't Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk qualify when David Steel sat for Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles from 1965 to the seat's abolition in 1983? For that time Berwickshire was a separate seat from Steel's. After 1983 he sat for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale, while Archie Kirkwood sat for Berwickshire. Now the reorganisation of the Scottish seats post-devolution creates issues, but I don't think that a seat that is mostly Berwickshire would be the best fit for Steel's final area.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2019 22:06:16 GMT
Why doesn't Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk qualify when David Steel sat for Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles from 1965 to the seat's abolition in 1983? For that time Berwickshire was a separate seat from Steel's. After 1983 he sat for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale, while Archie Kirkwood sat for Berwickshire. Now the reorganisation of the Scottish seats post-devolution creates issues, but I don't think that a seat that is mostly Berwickshire would be the best fit for Steel's final area. I disagree. Tweeddale is in David Mundell's seat but Ettrick and Lauderdale are not.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 23, 2019 23:32:18 GMT
David Steel represented a majority of the current BRS constituency before 1983, but not afterwards. Despite the non existance of the eponymous town, Roxburgh has the largest population of the historic counties in the borders - it was moved out of Steel's seat in 1983.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2019 23:47:45 GMT
David Steel represented a majority of the current BRS constituency before 1983, but not afterwards. Despite the non existance of the eponymous town, Roxburgh has the largest population of the historic counties in the borders - it was moved out of Steel's seat in 1983. David Steel's seat from 1965 to 1983 (including most of his time as Liberal leader) covered a majority of the Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk seat. Steel was Liberal leader from 1976 to 1988 and spent 7 of those 12 years as MP for Roxburgh, Selkirk & Peebles.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2019 15:48:02 GMT
In the 1950s, 1970s and 2010s there were four elections and a Balliol Oxford man was Prime Minister.
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