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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 26, 2019 9:19:01 GMT
The Conservatives won 49.7% of the vote in the 8 English regions outside of Greater London. Over 50% if you remove the city of Liverpool
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 27, 2019 19:47:10 GMT
Assuming that I've counted correctly the Tories have won 401 seats for this set of constituencies whereas Labour have won 308 (not counting by-elections). The Tory 'base' is 267, which is one hundred more than the Labour 'base':-
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pl
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Post by pl on Dec 27, 2019 20:35:34 GMT
Assuming that I've counted correctly the Tories have won 401 seats for this set of constituencies whereas Labour have won 308 (not counting by-elections). The Tory 'base' is 267, which is one hundred more than the Labour 'base':- Very interesting.. could you share the lists of which constituencies are in which groups.
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 28, 2019 19:34:30 GMT
Assuming that I've counted correctly the Tories have won 401 seats for this set of constituencies whereas Labour have won 308 (not counting by-elections). The Tory 'base' is 267, which is one hundred more than the Labour 'base':- Very interesting.. could you share the lists of which constituencies are in which groups. David www.dropbox.com/s/z40ri9hcrnyzauc/Con%20Lab%20seats%2010%20to%2019.ods?dl=0
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 28, 2019 20:23:17 GMT
Thanks. Digging in the data, for the smaller parties the bases are:
DUP 6 (North Antrim, East Antrim, Lagan Valley, East Londonderry, Strangford, Upper Bann) Sinn Fein 4 (Belfast West, Newry & Armagh, West Tyrone, Mid Ulster) SNP 3 (Dundee East, Na h-Eileanan An Iar, Perth & North Perthshire) Plaid Cymru 3 (Arfon, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Dwyfor Meirionnydd) Lib Dems 2 (Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale) Green 1 (Brighton Pavillion)
The current Scottish boundaries were introduced in 2005 but every seat returned the same party in 2005 & 2010 (with the arguable exception of Glasgow North East switching from Speaker to Labour, but the SNP gained it in 2015) so it doesn't make a difference.
There are only 35 seats that have not return Conservative or Labour MPs at any of the four elections:
* 18 Northern Ireland seats * 3 SNP base - Dundee East, Na h-Eileanan An Iar, Perth & North Perthshire * 3 Plaid base - Arfon, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Dwyfor Meirionnydd * 2 Lib Dem base - Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale * 1 Green base - Brighton Pavillion * 7 have returned Lib Dems or SNP - Argyll & Bute, Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross, East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, North East Fife, Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey, Ross Skye & Lochaber * 1 has returned Lib Dems or Plaid - Ceredigion
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 2, 2020 14:27:22 GMT
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 2, 2020 14:46:46 GMT
I like it! Does accentuate the rare positives out of the 2019 election, but the danger of course being that we kid ourselves into believing it means something!
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 2, 2020 14:54:30 GMT
Thanks. Digging in the data, for the smaller parties the bases are: DUP 6 (North Antrim, East Antrim, Lagan Valley, East Londonderry, Strangford, Upper Bann) Sinn Fein 4 (Belfast West, Newry & Armagh, West Tyrone, Mid Ulster) SNP 3 (Dundee East, Na h-Eileanan An Iar, Perth & North Perthshire) Plaid Cymru 3 (Arfon, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Dwyfor Meirionnydd) Lib Dems 2 (Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale) Green 1 (Brighton Pavillion) The current Scottish boundaries were introduced in 2005 but every seat returned the same party in 2005 & 2010 (with the arguable exception of Glasgow North East switching from Speaker to Labour, but the SNP gained it in 2015) so it doesn't make a difference. There are only 35 seats that have not return Conservative or Labour MPs at any of the four elections: * 18 Northern Ireland seats * 3 SNP base - Dundee East, Na h-Eileanan An Iar, Perth & North Perthshire * 3 Plaid base - Arfon, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Dwyfor Meirionnydd * 2 Lib Dem base - Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale * 1 Green base - Brighton Pavillion * 7 have returned Lib Dems or SNP - Argyll & Bute, Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross, East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, North East Fife, Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey, Ross Skye & Lochaber * 1 has returned Lib Dems or Plaid - Ceredigion Fascinating- the unlikely ones especially Perth & NP for SNP base, or Westmorland & Lonsdale for the Lib Dems- "bases "are clearly not the same thing as "safe seats"
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middyman
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"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
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Post by middyman on Jan 2, 2020 15:38:56 GMT
Do you know how they calculated increase in vote share? If a party went from 2% to 3%, it could be argued that they increased their vote share by 50%.
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 2, 2020 15:41:24 GMT
I assume it meant actual increase not increase by percentage (so 25% to 30% would beat 2% to 3%) but I dont know fur sure, I just posted the link
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Post by johnloony on Jan 2, 2020 21:31:13 GMT
If they think there are 3 constituencies with a "draw" then they must have been lazy in calculating the percentages to not-enough decimal places. e.g. East Ham has a Conservative increase of +3.82% and a Lib Dem increase of +3.79% (according to the percentages given in the Daily Telegraph results page) but the person who did the map obviously only counted 1 decimal place.
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Post by syorkssocialist on Jan 2, 2020 21:33:48 GMT
Just seen it pointed out on Twitter that Fine Gael had a candidate in the Park ward for the 1980 Highland District Council election in Scotland and received 21 votes. They also seem to have stood in the Inverness constituency at the October 1974 and 1979 general elections, if Wikipedia is accurate on this. I'm well aware of Basingstoke's DUP MP and Liverpool's Irish Nationalist but had never heard about this until tonight. Anyone have information on why?
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Post by johnloony on Jan 2, 2020 21:38:34 GMT
They also seem to have stood in the Inverness constituency at the October 1974 and 1979 general elections, if Wikipedia is accurate on this. The candidate U. Bell is described as "Ind" in the F.W.S. Craig book and in Whitaker's Almanac. He got 155 votes and 112 votes respectively. I haven't heard of any FG link either.
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 2, 2020 21:40:06 GMT
"U Bell Ind" - this is a piss-take surely
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Post by syorkssocialist on Jan 2, 2020 21:43:19 GMT
They also seem to have stood in the Inverness constituency at the October 1974 and 1979 general elections, if Wikipedia is accurate on this. The candidate U. Bell is described as "Ind" in the F.W.S. Craig book and in Whitaker's Almanac. He got 155 votes and 112 votes respectively. I haven't heard of any FG link either. I've now seen some newspaper articles from the time and it seems he started his own movement called Fine Gael, with no connection to the Irish party. A bizarre read to say the least!
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 2, 2020 21:55:16 GMT
Did anyone else read the paragraph starting "Yesterday.." and have to do a second-take at reading the word "dirk"!
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Post by johnloony on Jan 2, 2020 22:43:47 GMT
I think we gain Great Grimsby on this system bump
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Post by johnloony on Jan 2, 2020 22:46:50 GMT
I also have a view that the PM of the UK alternatives between flamboyant characters and sober characters. Flamboyant : Cameron, Blair, Thatcher, Wilson *2, Macmillan, Churchill Sober : Brown, Major, Callaghan, Heath (not sure here), Douglas Home, Attlee, Chamberlain Not sure about Eden. Update: Flamboyant : Johnson, Cameron, Blair, Thatcher, Wilson *2, Macmillan, Churchill Sober : May, Brown, Major, Callaghan, Heath (not sure here), Douglas Home, Attlee, Chamberlain
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 11:30:00 GMT
24% of Labour MPs represent London seats.
The current PLP has the highest ever proportion of female MPs and the highest ever proportion of London MPs.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 12:01:16 GMT
MPs with alliterative names elected in 2019:
Adam Afriyie Ben Bradley Ben Bradshaw Bob Blackman Chris Clarkson Christopher Chope Claire Coutinho David Davis David Davies Dave Doogan David Duguid Dehenna Davidson Harriet Harmann Helen Hayes Kwasi Kwarteng Mark Menzies Maria Miller Priti Patel Rachel Reeves Selaine Saxby Tom Tugendhat Valerie Vaz William Wragg
Colin Clark, David Drew and Frank Field all lost their seats.
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