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Post by hullenedge on Dec 16, 2019 15:37:44 GMT
2019 Tory lead plotted against the 650 seats by descending majority:- Compared to 2017:- Also plotted the 1955-70 outcomes against the 1970 majorities:-
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Dec 16, 2019 16:09:30 GMT
Liverpool is also an exception. The South and East are historically the wealthy areas. For much the same reason too. If you have a large river/estuary on the western side of your city, that's inevitably going to be the industrial bit. And the well-to-do are not apt to live on houseboats.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Dec 16, 2019 16:11:11 GMT
First time since 1847 the "shire" part of Nottinghamshire has been all blue. Nottingham itself was all blue in 1983 but is now looking very red.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2019 16:20:33 GMT
First time since 1847 the "shire" part of Nottinghamshire has been all blue. Nottingham itself was all blue in 1983 but is now looking very red. A reverse of 1983 in Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Mansfield.
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Dec 16, 2019 16:27:08 GMT
I was looking for a thread on Electoral Reform but couldnt find one (!) so I thought this might be the best place to post this: In much of Europe there is a 4 or 5% Threshold and i think that,s the kind of level the UK would have on a regional level. Also the 4 nations are currently out of balance in terms of seats with England underweight in seats compared to the other 3.
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Post by ccoleman on Dec 16, 2019 18:59:02 GMT
Labour majorities in Leeds seats,1992 vs 2019:
Leeds East: 29.4% vs 14.4% Leeds West: 29.0% vs 26.2 Leeds Central: 39.5% vs 39.1% Leeds North East: -8.6% vs 32.9% Leeds North West: -15.7% vs 21.8%
if you had told me even 5 years ago that Leeds East would be the least safe Labour seat of the five, I’d have laughed.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2019 19:03:31 GMT
Liberal Democrat majority in Montgomeryshire
1992: +15.8 2019: -35.5
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 16, 2019 20:39:56 GMT
Liberal Democrat majority in Montgomeryshire 1992: +15.8 2019: -35.5 The Lembit factor
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Post by ccoleman on Dec 16, 2019 20:51:59 GMT
Seats where the Con vote was down over 4000:
Beaconsfield –4082 North East Fife –4127 Edinburgh North & Leith –4385 Ealing Central & Acton –4398 Brentford & Isleworth –4430 Leeds North East –4510 South West Hertfordshire –4801 Hampstead & Kilburn –5012 Maidenhead –5098
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 16, 2019 20:57:27 GMT
Liberal Democrat majority in Montgomeryshire 1992: +15.8 2019: -35.5 The Lembit factor Lembit only lost by 3.5%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2019 20:57:32 GMT
Labour majorities in Leeds seats,1992 vs 2019: Leeds East: 29.4% vs 14.4% Leeds West: 29.0% vs 26.2 Leeds Central: 39.5% vs 39.1% Leeds North East: -8.6% vs 32.9% Leeds North West: -15.7% vs 21.8% if you had told me even 5 years ago that Leeds East would be the least safe Labour seat of the five, I’d have laughed. Nottingham North is Labour's most marginal seat in Nottinghamshire which is also laughable. Labour were also closer to winning Rushcliffe than Mansfield (where Ken Clarke ran and lost in 1966).
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Post by mick745 on Dec 16, 2019 21:35:39 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Dec 17, 2019 1:56:35 GMT
2019 Tory lead plotted against the 650 seats by descending majority:- Compared to 2017:- Also plotted the 1955-70 outcomes against the 1970 majorities:- What is the x-axis? Tell us properly without being cryptic.
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 17, 2019 16:29:17 GMT
2019 Tory lead plotted against the 650 seats by descending majority:- Compared to 2017:- Also plotted the 1955-70 outcomes against the 1970 majorities:- What is the x-axis? Tell us properly without being cryptic. The x-axis is the rolling seat count whereas the y-axis is the rolling lead for the Tories. The sooner they cross the x-axis the greater their majority. This was a landslide. Screenshots of the calculations:-
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 17, 2019 16:30:55 GMT
We'll see more of this (especially Centre for Towns) in coming weeks:-
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 17, 2019 21:23:29 GMT
1997 was obviously a seismic year in British politics and it's also the first election I can remember - when I was 12.
There are now only 31 MPs who've served continually since before that election and 65 since it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2019 10:24:13 GMT
Ed Miliband was closer to losing his seat than Boris.
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 20, 2019 20:15:57 GMT
The most extreme Steed swings 2005-19 in England:-
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 20, 2019 20:32:32 GMT
As has been pointed out elsewhere the most baffling seat on this list is Devon Central.
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Post by froome on Dec 20, 2019 20:38:49 GMT
As has been pointed out elsewhere the most baffling seat on this list is Devon Central. And as has been discussed on that thread, it isn't really that baffling. Lots of movement out from Exeter, and a seat which is increasingly becoming more 'alternative'.
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