Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jun 21, 2019 17:51:49 GMT
There's a whole Twitter thread about the judicial recount here:
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Post by redvers on Jun 28, 2019 13:11:17 GMT
Not mentioned yet is an election's been called in Manitoba. Was supposed to have been in 2020, but Progressive Conservative Premier Brian Pallister's weak sauce excuse that he didn't want an election to conflict with Canada's 150th birthday celebrations hasn't fooled anyone. He's comfortably ahead in the polls and wants to take advantage of it. Polling so far suggests it's a much ado about nothing election. Tories are down on 2016, but then 2016 was an exceptional high for the Tories after defeating a hugely unpopular NDP government. The Manitoba Liberals had a successful election by their standards, topped off by a by-election win later on in the NDP ex-Premier's seat. However, the national anti-Liberal mood surely won't help. The NDP elected a former musician and broadcaster as its leader...but his past is a constant thorn. This article gives a good idea as to why this election may be more treading water for them than anything else: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-ndp-defining-wab-kinew-provincial-election-1.5188296My gut says Tories down, NDP slightly up, Liberals about the same. Greens will hope they'll get a boost as elsewhere, but don't know Manitoba well enough to judge. Still, election isn't until September, so long time for everything to change!
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 28, 2019 13:55:16 GMT
Most observers, i think, didn't expect Pallister to remain popular.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jun 28, 2019 21:11:27 GMT
Some recent developments: - A surprise snap provincial general election has been called in Manitoba for September.
Not mentioned yet is an election's been called in Manitoba.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 28, 2019 21:46:48 GMT
Liberals must have thought they could retrieve their majority there It was actually a legally mandated recount, not one requested by a candidate. Obviously when it’s that close anything can happen, but I don’t think they had any great expectation the result would go the other way.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 28, 2019 22:41:27 GMT
Liberals must have thought they could retrieve their majority there It was actually a legally mandated recount, not one requested by a candidate. Obviously when it’s that close anything can happen, but I don’t think they had any great expectation the result would go the other way.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 15, 2019 23:37:54 GMT
In PrinceEdwardIsland the postponed election in Charlottetown-HillsboroughPark was won by the PC (although many had expected more the Greens or Liberals to succeed).
27 seats:
13 "ProgressiveConservatives" 08 Greens 06 Liberals
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 16, 2019 2:22:10 GMT
We'll never know for certain, but I get the feeling that the seat would've broken for the Greens had the candidate not passed away. The Tory minority government is now in its honeymoon period, and whatever local personal vote the original choice (a schoolteacher and father of two infant sons) carried with him was lost. Dr. John Andrew proved a much less inspiring choice.
The PCs apparently had a big lead on advance votes, which accounted for about half the total votes cast in the end. The final tallies were: Conservative – 1,080 (43.7%) Green – 709 (28.7%) Liberal – 635 (25.7%) NDP — 46 (1.9%)
I can't find a turnout figure anywhere but those numbers look lower than what would've been expected on a general election day. Natalie Jameson is the new MLA for District 9 (the constituency, not the film).
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Aug 3, 2019 1:23:31 GMT
Three expected provincial by-elections have been called in Nova Scotia. They will take place in a month's time, before the federal campaign officially gets underway.
All have been caused by Conservative resignations. The Liberals hold a majority in the legislature there, so it won't affect the balance of power anyhow.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 19, 2019 23:03:13 GMT
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 20, 2019 19:05:01 GMT
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 23, 2019 4:55:12 GMT
Another poll by Mainstreet Research (17-19/8) which has the NDP closing in, just a bit, but seemingly for as real as polling gets this time. PC 42.5% (-2.3) [-10.5] NDP 34.7% (+2.6) [+9.0] Liberal 11.9% (-1.2) [-2.6] Green 9.6% (+2.9) [+4.5] Other 1.4% (-1.9) [-0.3]
Changes are from their last poll (24/3) and from the last provincial election (9/4/16). Sample size is 810. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Manitoba_general_election#Opinion_pollsSadly i can't offer any take due to having lost them when Radio Canada went off the satellite in Europe some time ago. No volcanic activity to report in Manitoba either, even if the name sounds like a volcano from the southern tip of the Peloponnese. But they have a few really old volcanic belts, which is good for their trade balance. In 2004, Manitoba produced 20.1% of Canada’s nickel, 20.1% of its cobalt, 13.6% of its zinc, 7.3% of the country’s copper, 3.4% of its gold and all of Canada’s tantalum and cesium. Manitoba Mining (pdf) - Province of Manitoba website
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Post by redvers on Sept 4, 2019 22:26:19 GMT
An election has been called in the Northwest Territories for October 1st. 19 seats up for grabs. Like neighbouring Nunavut, elections are non-partisan.
Interestingly, assuming Premier Bob McLeod runs again, he'd be standing for election same time his brother Michael is running for re-election as the territory's Liberal MP.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 6, 2019 0:11:41 GMT
Three expected provincial by-elections have been called in Nova Scotia. They will take place in a month's time, before the federal campaign officially gets underway. As expected, they were three Tory holds. Turnout was healthy by provincial by-election standards, ranging from the high 30s to the high 40s in percentage terms. One seat out in the countryside was a clear PC hold. In another on Cape Breton Island, the Liberal vote held up well; whilst in the riding closest to the capital city region, the NDP at least managed a decent third place. The Greens will be disappointed with their returns in the province where their federal leader grew up (and stood back in 2008). The Atlantica Party also put up a candidate who garnered well under 100 votes. Any lessons for the federal and provincial elections were complicated by the presence of strong independent candidates. One constituency saw the independent score dwarf that of the winner's majority, whilst another district had two independent candidates whose share of the vote combined was more than that of the eventual victor. The standings in the legislature are now: Liberal 27, PCs 17, NDP 5, Independent* 2. *One elected as a Tory but suspended, the other elected as NDP but tried to run for a Liberal nomination federally.An election has been called in the Northwest Territories for October 1st. 19 seats up for grabs. Like neighbouring Nunavut, elections are non-partisan. Interestingly, assuming Premier Bob McLeod runs again, he'd be standing for election same time his brother Michael is running for re-election as the territory's Liberal MP. I'd heard about the election call, but not about the family connections! It seems in the territories it's fine for a general election campaign to overlap with the federal one. There are calls to make the NWT legislature formally partisan anyway, like in the Yukon. In Nunavut it's already transparently not always been above party politics. In 2011 former 'independent' health minister Leona Aglukkaq held her seat as a Conservative against 'non-partisan' ex-Premier Paul Okalik... who was standing as a Liberal. As for Manitoba: boundary changes have made previews a bit of a mess. There is a bizarre mix of seat-swapping, carpetbagging, outright chicken runs and even a couple of cases that look like kamikaze runs afoot (I don't know what the law on severance payments for defeated sitting MLAs is there, nor if there are any loopholes). What is certain is that anything other than a PC win would be a surprise. One rogue poll a couple of weeks ago had the NDP ahead by 1% (which still might not have left them the largest party in terms of seats) – then the polling company that carried out and published it said they'd done their weighting wrong and sent out another media release with revised figures, confirming that the Tories had been in the lead all along. All other polls point to an even clearer victory for Brian Pallister and his team. They do not look like being punished for dropping the writ a year early.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 6, 2019 14:49:31 GMT
Three expected provincial by-elections have been called in Nova Scotia. They will take place in a month's time, before the federal campaign officially gets underway. As expected, they were three Tory holds. Turnout was healthy by provincial by-election standards, ranging from the high 30s to the high 40s in percentage terms. One seat out in the countryside was a clear PC hold. In another on Cape Breton Island, the Liberal vote held up well; whilst in the riding closest to the capital city region, the NDP at least managed a decent third place. The Greens will be disappointed with their returns in the province where their federal leader grew up (and stood back in 2008). The Atlantica Party also put up a candidate who garnered well under 100 votes. Any lessons for the federal and provincial elections were complicated by the presence of strong independent candidates. One constituency saw the independent score dwarf that of the winner's majority, whilst another district had two independent candidates whose share of the vote combined was more than that of the eventual victor. The standings in the legislature are now: Liberal 27, PCs 17, NDP 5, Independent* 2. *One elected as a Tory but suspended, the other elected as NDP but tried to run for a Liberal nomination federally.An election has been called in the Northwest Territories for October 1st. 19 seats up for grabs. Like neighbouring Nunavut, elections are non-partisan. Interestingly, assuming Premier Bob McLeod runs again, he'd be standing for election same time his brother Michael is running for re-election as the territory's Liberal MP. I'd heard about the election call, but not about the family connections! It seems in the territories it's fine for a general election campaign to overlap with the federal one. There are calls to make the NWT legislature formally partisan anyway, like in the Yukon. In Nunavut it's already transparently not always been above party politics. In 2011 former 'independent' health minister Leona Aglukkaq held her seat as a Conservative against 'non-partisan' ex-Premier Paul Okalik... who was standing as a Liberal. As for Manitoba: boundary changes have made previews a bit of a mess. There is a bizarre mix of seat-swapping, carpetbagging, outright chicken runs and even a couple of cases that look like kamikaze runs afoot (I don't know what the law on severance payments for defeated sitting MLAs is there, nor if there are any loopholes). What is certain is that anything other than a PC win would be a surprise. One rogue poll a couple of weeks ago had the NDP ahead by 1% (which still might not have left them the largest party in terms of seats) – then the polling company that carried out and published it said they'd done their weighting wrong and sent out another media release with revised figures, confirming that the Tories had been in the lead all along. All other polls point to an even clearer victory for Brian Pallister and his team. They do not look like being punished for dropping the writ a year early. The common opinion is than a 1% win for the NDP would be a clear majority for them. The tipping point is estimated to be a PC of 4% (PC is getting 75% in most rural Southern ridings, which is very inefficient). Anyways, NDP should gains seats, PC lead by between 8 and 16 points in polls (while they won by 27 points last election).
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 6, 2019 23:06:48 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Sept 10, 2019 17:35:33 GMT
"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to visit Governor-General Julie Payette on Wednesday morning to kick off the election campaign, Liberal sources said. Liberal campaign workers told The Globe that they have been told that Mr. Trudeau will visit Rideau Hall in Ottawa on Wednesday morning to seek a dissolution of Parliament. Mr. Trudeau is expected to hold a rally shortly after the campaign launch and then take off on the Liberal plane. According to Canada’s fixed-date elections law, the vote is scheduled to be held on Oct. 21." www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-election-campaign-set-to-begin-wednesday/
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Post by johnloony on Sept 11, 2019 3:30:29 GMT
Manitoba
Progressive Conservative: down from 40 to 35 New Democrats Party: up from 14 to 19 Liberal: staying on 3
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2019 3:53:20 GMT
In % the "Progressive Conservatives" lost not more than ~5% (from 53.0% to ~48.3%), NDP gained ~5% (from 25.7% to ~30.4%). Quite a success, especially for PM Pallister, whom many saw 2016 as someone becoming soonly inpopular. (What was perhaps not so untrue, but was outbalanced by an unpopular NDP-leader [whose children had during their father's speech ChewingGums in their mouths...].)
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 11, 2019 16:12:49 GMT
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