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Post by redvers on May 16, 2019 23:16:30 GMT
Looks like the Liberals off to a good start. They'll be down on 2015 for sure, but considering the anti-Liberal wave across the country, the NL Liberals are having a good night by comparison.
2 independents in the lead so far. 1 has already been declared - a former Liberal booted out of caucus and has won re-election with ease.
Looks like, as expected, a poor night for the NDP.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 17, 2019 0:06:21 GMT
Despite being down all the count, NDP seems to have win Labrador West, the very last box giving them a lead of 5 votes. This will obviously go on recount.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 17, 2019 0:34:34 GMT
Seems like the Liberals have lost their majority, winning 20 out of 40 seats.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 17, 2019 0:42:06 GMT
Seems like the Liberals have lost their majority, winning 20 out of 40 seats. I suppose it’s slightly up in the air still as Labrador West, won on the night by the NDP, is in automatic recount territory and so could push the Liberals to a bare majority 21.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 17, 2019 0:45:25 GMT
Votes: Lib 92,822: PC 89,882.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 17, 2019 0:49:51 GMT
Votes: Lib 92,822: PC 89,882. Makes you wonder what the raw votes tally would've been if the PCs had managed to run a candidate in Waterford Valley...
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Post by johnloony on May 17, 2019 1:16:43 GMT
Ches Crosbie looks and sounds grumpy and cantankerous, a bit like a reactionary flinty grey-haired deep-south Republican in the USA (I'm thinking of Jeff Sessions actually). His speech says "It's the Liberal Party's fault that they lost their majority" but it sounds like he actually means "I'm annoyed because we didn't win".
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 17, 2019 1:27:38 GMT
Opposition Leader Ches Crosbie: "I had two speeches prepared, and neither of them applies."
Says Dwight Ball will be gone within a year. He could mean that Ball's own party will now turf him out after this result. Appeals (probably in vain) for the NDP and independent MHAs to help him bring down the government. In reality they will probably nod through the Liberal budget.
After his speech, Crosbie reiterates to the media that the viceregal representative has compromised her position. The district in which she is accused of campaigning was a Liberal hold by 177 votes (3.2%). Ooh er. Constitutional crisis incoming?
Lots of assumptions about the Liberals and Tories are often flipped in Newfoundland, such as religious denominations associated with them. Another in this campaign is that the Conservatives had a much smaller election war chest with which to fight a snap election.
Premiers who go to the voters early are often punished. That appears to be the case on this occasion, but it was only a slight castigation for going 6 months too soon rather than, say, 2 years. This is the second best provincial result for the Liberals in the past few years after Nova Scotia. On these numbers it's unlikely the federal Liberals would win every single seat in Atlantic Canada as they did last time, though.
The Speaker was re-elected as a Liberal in Lake Melville (a riding partly claimed by Québec). If he remains as Speaker, we're into an outright minority situation. If one of the PCs or independents can be persuaded to take the role, then the Liberals can act in effect as if they have a majority of one seat.
Family trivia update: Beth Crosbie failed to be elected in Virginia Waters—Pleasantville, the constituency nextdoor to her brother's. Brothers Jim and Paul Dinn were elected for the NDP and Tories respectively in St John's Centre and Topsail—Paradise. The CBC overage speculates (possibly in jest) that their mother, Mary, might have voted Liberal. Both the successful Liberal and the last-placed "non-affiliated" candidates in St. Barbe have the surname Mitchelmore.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 17, 2019 2:17:55 GMT
Dwight Ball blamed the deficit he inherited for difficulties in governing so far, by way of a partial explanation for the result (elsewhere in Canada, that would be straight out of the centre-right playbook). But overall he showed at least some humility, and was classier than Crosbie and his refusal to concede.
Anyway, with one legally mandated judicial recount to come in Menihek (Labrador City), this is the result, with the percentages 'scaled up' to the average share of the vote each party got where it actually stood:
Lib 93,608 43.94% PC 90,791 43.71% NDP 13,434 18.03% NLA 5,086 10.62% Others 10,096 18.96%
Turnout: 60.1% (+4.9%)
Figures, for reasons explained above, total well over 100%.
The Liberal vote was quite efficient. The fact that the NDP might've made a net gain in the circumstances shows how absurd FPTP can be, but also how bizarre and surprising Canadian politics can still be sometimes.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 17, 2019 2:18:08 GMT
Opposition Leader Ches Crosbie: "I had two speeches prepared, and neither of them applies." Says Dwight Ball will be gone within a year. He could mean that Ball's own party will now turf him out after this result. Appeals (probably in vain) for the NDP and independent MHAs to help him bring down the government. In reality they will probably nod through the Liberal budget. After his speech, Crosbie reiterates to the media that the viceregal representative has compromised her position. The district in which she is accused of campaigning was a Liberal hold by 177 votes (3.2%). Ooh er. Constitutional crisis incoming? Lots of assumptions about the Liberals and Tories are often flipped in Newfoundland, such as religious denominations associated with them. Another in this campaign is that the Conservatives had a much smaller election war chest with which to fight a snap election. Premiers who go to the voters early are often punished. That appears to be the case on this occasion, but it was only a slight castigation for going 6 months too soon rather than, say, 2 years. This is the second best provincial result for the Liberals in the past few years after Nova Scotia. On these numbers it's unlikely the federal Liberals would win every single seat in Atlantic Canada as they did last time, though. The Speaker was re-elected as a Liberal in Lake Melville (a riding partly claimed by Québec). If he remains as Speaker, we're into an outright minority situation. If one of the PCs or independents can be persuaded to take the role, then the Liberals can act in effect as if they have a majority of one seat. Family trivia update: Beth Crosbie failed to be elected in Virginia Waters—Pleasantville, the constituency nextdoor to her brother's. Brothers Jim and Paul Dinn were elected for the NDP and Tories respectively in St John's Centre and Topsail—Paradise. The CBC overage speculates (possibly in jest) that their mother, Mary, might have voted Liberal. Both the successful Liberal and the last-placed "non-affiliated" candidates in St. Barbe have the surname Mitchelmore. Just through watching a bit of CBC about an hour ago it seems the Speaker is a political appointee as they said he’s also Environment Minister, so it sounds like it wouldn’t affect the balance of power as they vote anyway. CBC’s panel also seemed to think your assessment of Dwight Ball’s future was about 51 weeks too generous; they seemed to believe he’d be gone, if not voluntarily tomorrow, within a week.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 17, 2019 4:37:34 GMT
That wasn't my assessment, but rather that of Ches Crosbie. Ball looks determined to hang on for the moment.
My understanding of the CBC conversation was that the Speaker was rumoured to have taken the post as a 'consolation prize' having been overlooked for Cabinet 4 years ago. He was earmarked for a move into the executive as Minister for the Environment, but only in the expectation that the Liberals would win a majority government. A minority administration complicates matters considerably.
I'm fairly certain that, since all Canadian provincial legislatures are unicameral and partisan, none of their Speakers ordinarily has a deliberative vote.
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Post by polaris on May 17, 2019 12:42:43 GMT
The last time there was a hung parliament in Newfoundland was in 1971, when Joey Smallwood's Liberals - who had been in power since Confederation - won 20 seats against 21 for the Progressive Conservatives and one for the Labrador party. Smallwood struggled on in office for three months until giving way to Frank Moores of the PCs. There was another general election in 1972 which the Tories won by a landslide (33 seats to 9) - they remained in power for seventeen years, until 1989.
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Post by finsobruce on May 17, 2019 13:56:52 GMT
The last time there was a hung parliament in Newfoundland was in 1971, when Joey Smallwood's Liberals - who had been in power since Confederation - won 20 seats against 21 for the Progressive Conservatives and one for the Labrador party. Smallwood struggled on in office for three months until giving way to Frank Moores of the PCs. There was another general election in 1972 which the Tories won by a landslide (33 seats to 9) - they remained in power for seventeen years, until 1989. The Labrador party - always dogged by controversy!
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Post by redvers on May 20, 2019 10:13:19 GMT
Looks like the Liberals off to a good start. They'll be down on 2015 for sure, but considering the anti-Liberal wave across the country, the NL Liberals are having a good night by comparison. 2 independents in the lead so far. 1 has already been declared - a former Liberal booted out of caucus and has won re-election with ease. Looks like, as expected, a poor night for the NDP. Well that post was a big pile of donkey dung.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on May 30, 2019 12:01:46 GMT
this might interest you, a discussion of the current polling for the GE. Not sure if the tweet is showing for everyone, but heres the link: link
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 30, 2019 19:52:47 GMT
The last time there was a hung parliament in Newfoundland was in 1971, when Joey Smallwood's Liberals - who had been in power since Confederation - won 20 seats against 21 for the Progressive Conservatives and one for the Labrador party. Smallwood struggled on in office for three months until giving way to Frank Moores of the PCs. There was another general election in 1972 which the Tories won by a landslide (33 seats to 9) - they remained in power for seventeen years, until 1989. The Labrador party - always dogged by controversy! You jest, but the probable winner in West Labrador for the NDP basically seems to be a continuation of the Labrador Party in all but name, mainly because they're not a registered party anymore. The earliest possible date for the judicial recount there is the 19th of June (on the CBC election night coverage, someone suggested it had to happen within a week – lulz). The wheels of democracy turn painfully slowly elsewhere, yet again. The Liberals have sworn in a new Cabinet without waiting for that result to be finalised, so whatever happens they've avoided the ignominy of becoming the first one-term government since Newfoundland became a province. In another part of the peninsula, Torngat Mountains was a surprise Tory gain. Randy Edmunds had won it in 2011 by visiting each coastal community in the riding by speedboat. It's since emerged that he no longer lives in the district, which covers northern Labrador. New Conservative MHA Lela Evans had promised to move there if elected. The PCs failed to gain Harbour Grace—Port de Grave and actively lost Fortune Bay—Cap la Hune. If they'd won either of those seats, the Liberals would've been in an even shakier situation right now. One last note on the nepotism front: the winner in Waterford Valley is the brother of the runner-up in Windsor Lake. Anyway, that was the final major electoral test before the federal poll in October. The only remaining definite forks in the road before then are the deferred election in Hillsborough Park, PEI and a by-election in Cobequid, Nova Scotia caused by a resignation. The second of those seats has been held by the NDP since 1984. There are also persistent rumours of an early election call in Manitoba, plus several pending vacancies among the already tiny Liberal caucus in the Ontario Parliament. The latter could potentially wait until November, though.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 3, 2019 15:42:59 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jun 20, 2019 23:10:56 GMT
Some recent developments: - The Tories unexpectedly took a provincial seat from the NDP in Nova Scotia in a by-election this week.
- A surprise snap provincial general election has been called in Manitoba for September.
- The writ has been moved for the postponed election in PEI that was delayed due to the death of the Green candidate a few days before the poll. It will happen next month.
- The judicial recount in Newfoundland & Labrador is ongoing. The outcome will mean the difference between a majority and minority government for the Liberals, who have already recalled the legislature and re-submitted their budget.
- A Conservative MP in BC has passed away. Since we're only a few months out from a federal general election, no by-election will take place.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 21, 2019 16:03:53 GMT
Some recent developments: - The judicial recount in Newfoundland & Labrador is ongoing. The outcome will mean the difference between a majority and minority government for the Liberals, who have already recalled the legislature and re-submitted their budget.
Recount is finished. NDP margin of victory in Labrador West went from 5 votes to 2 votes, so Liberals will lead a minority government.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 21, 2019 16:12:03 GMT
Liberals must have thought they could retrieve their majority there
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