Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,231
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2019 16:29:03 GMT
In NB a regional Tory-MP passed away. It's a rural&remote area and the regional government isn't unpopular, but if LP or GP achieve a gain, they would have a majority.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,231
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 11, 2019 16:32:28 GMT
In OpinionPolls for the federal election NDP is polled very differently (8% vs. 16%). And despite various claims this is not caused by a interchange with the GREENS, who remain instead quite stable.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Sept 11, 2019 19:50:54 GMT
Liberals currently projected to be the largest party, but short of a majority.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,507
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Post by Foggy on Sept 11, 2019 21:29:35 GMT
In NB a regional Tory-MP passed away. It's a rural&remote area and the regional government isn't unpopular, but if LP or GP achieve a gain, they would have a majority. Former Premier Brian Gallant is also stepping down as an MLA. The Liberals would have to hold his seat and gain the one vacated by the passing of Greg Thompson (or the Greens gain both) for a red-green arrangement to have a majority in the legislature. Thompson was a former federal Veterans Affairs minister. I expect the by-elections won't be held until February or March anyway.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 12, 2019 19:58:05 GMT
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,507
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Post by Foggy on Sept 12, 2019 23:10:44 GMT
I wouldn't say Manitoba is the Liberals' outright weakest province, although their fortunes have fluctuated wildly in the Prairies. The provincial Liberals (unaffiliated to the federal party) in Saskatchewan and Alberta are currently in a much worse state than their Manitoban counterparts, and federally it's a close-run thing among those 3 provinces as to where the Liberal brand is the least popular too. I agree that the Greens' failure to run a full slate of candidates wasn't a good look for a party serious about government. You're right that overall not a lot happened, and the main talking points relate to the effects of the last review of riding boundaries. The federal election will certainly be more interesting...
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 14, 2019 1:13:02 GMT
I wonder if anyone's done a Conservative target list for the Canadian federal election.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,231
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2019 3:59:35 GMT
I wonder if anyone's done a Conservative target list for the Canadian federal election. Can offer only Manitoba.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,507
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Post by Foggy on Sept 14, 2019 4:49:53 GMT
I wonder if anyone's done a Conservative target list for the Canadian federal election. Unlike for Australian elections, there doesn't seem to be a 'pendulum' list of seats produced by media and election watchers that opposition parties would need to gain to form government, and that swings the governing party would need to avoid in order to stay in power. Nonetheless, based on the 2015 results, the top 5 low-hanging fruit ridings ought to be: Elmwood—Transcona, MB (0.08% swing needed) – currently held by the NDP; Edmonton Mill Woods, AB (0.1%) – held by Liberals; Regina—Lewvan, SK (0.14%) – held by NDP; Hastings—Lennox and Addington, ON (0.2%) – held by Liberals; and Kootenay—Columbia, BC (0.23%) – held by NDP. I think it's fair to say three of those only went or stayed for the Dippers because they went into the last election as the official opposition, and the other two narrowly turned red entirely because of the Trudeau surge (2010s edition). If the Tories fail to pick up any of those then they're in for a horrendous election night.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 14, 2019 6:08:35 GMT
I wonder if anyone's done a Conservative target list for the Canadian federal election. Unlike for Australian election, there doesn't seem to be a 'pendulum' list of seats produced by media and election watchers that opposition parties would need to gain to form government, and that swings the governing party would need to avoid in order to stay in power. Nonetheless, based on the 2015 results, the top 5 low-hanging fruit ridings ought to be: Elmwood—Transcona, MB (0.08% swing needed) – currently held by the NDP ; Edmonton Mill Woods, AB (0.1%) – held by Liberals ; Regina—Lewvan, SK (0.14%) – held by NDP ; Hastings—Lennox and Addington, ON (0.2%) – held by Liberals ; and Kootenay—Columbia, BC (0.23%) – held by NDP. I think it's fair to say three of those only went or stayed for the Dippers because they went into the last election as the official opposition, and the other two narrowly turned red entirely because of the Trudeau surge (2010s edition). If the Tories fail to pick up any of those then they're in for a horrendous election night. Thanks. In 2011 I did target lists for most of the parties, but the swings were so enormous that it rendered most of them a bit useless. For example I set up a target list of seats for the NDP up to a swing of 10%, and then they got swings of 20% in a lot of places.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 15, 2019 15:05:31 GMT
Have there been any boundary changes since the last election? Seems to be more difficult than you'd think to find out. If not I can get on with doing a Conservative target list.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 15, 2019 16:54:34 GMT
Have there been any boundary changes since the last election? Seems to be more difficult than you'd think to find out. If not I can get on with doing a Conservative target list. No, since the last redistribution in Canada was for the 2015 election; that was a major redistribution which also added as many as 30 extra seats.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Sept 19, 2019 0:55:50 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 19, 2019 1:00:31 GMT
Oh dear. "...he has wore..." "...racist scandal..." The world decaying into insanity before our eyes.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 19, 2019 1:03:45 GMT
Trudeau has been a cheerleader of Wokeness over the years so it's ironic if it bites him on the arse with these brownface photos surfacing.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 19, 2019 1:08:47 GMT
Trudeau has been a cheerleader of Wokeness over the years so it's a bit ironic if it bites him on the arse. Oh I agree with that and hate the little wanker, but it is trivial beyond belief, and I can't wish disgrace on him for it, if I dispute that there is anything at all wrong with it, far less than it being any teeny-weeny form of scandal. I am an equal opportunities abuser and defender.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 19, 2019 1:35:38 GMT
The leader of the New Democratic Party responds to the photo.
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 19, 2019 6:06:19 GMT
This is all very odd. Under what circumstances would anyone wear blackface? Other than the stage? I can't imagine any circumstances in which I would have done so.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 19, 2019 6:16:06 GMT
This is all very odd. Under what circumstances would anyone wear blackface? Other than the stage? I can't imagine any circumstances in which I would have done so. I was at a fair recently and I saw a guy applying black face-paint, and I thought that looked a bit dodgy. But then I noticed he was dressed completely in black, his hands were face-painted black and he was wearing a black skull-cap. He was one of those "living statues", preparing for his shift, so I guess that was OK.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 19, 2019 6:29:26 GMT
This is all very odd. Under what circumstances would anyone wear blackface? Other than the stage? I can't imagine any circumstances in which I would have done so. According to Sky News Radio on Eagle Radio 70’s 30 minutes ago he was playing Aladdin’s The Genie in an unofficial student play.
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