Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 24, 2019 2:40:55 GMT
We'll soon find out who is the "real" Mckay. That wasn't even among my ridings to watch, but for reference: Matthew MacKay (Tory) defeated Matthew J. MacKay (Green) easily, with 62.1% of the vote against 24.9%. Turnout was announced at 78% (-3% on 2015), but that was with a couple of areas still to report, and might not have taken into account the postponed poll. Elections PEI is not reporting how many people tried to vote for the independent candidate who pulled out with a week to spare, so I guess a late withdrawal is legal on the Island. The countermanded election must be held by the middle of July. If it were a true Canadian by-election, they could get away with delaying for 6 months to a year. It will not now be too contentious since: 1) a win for the PCs would not put them in majority territory; and 2) an unlikely victory for the Liberals would not see them overtake, or even draw level with, the Greens. The final result of the referendum was 51%-49% in favour of NO to MMP, but in terms of districts it was 15 YES to 12 NO. Biggest NO came in Tignish—Palmer Road with a stonking 79% against (they were worried about lack of rural representation with larger ridings, despite living under that system until 1996). O'Leary—Inverness was curiously the third largest NO on 72.4%, despite the fact it came far closer than anywhere else in the province to electing someone from a fourth party, which would've been unprecedented. The closest result was a NO by 11 votes in Summerside—South Drive (although it was a Green gain in the election). The widest YES margin was 65.7% to 34.3% in Kensington—Malpeque. It was a similar story in Charlottetown—Victoria Park. There's then quite the slide down to 59% in Charlottetown—Brighton and and 57.7% in Mermaid—Stratford. The fifth strongest YES came in Charlottetown—Hillsborough Park, but turnout was suppressed slightly there by the cancellation of the election part of the ballot. The last result to be declared, in District 14, saw Gord McNeilly finally win in his second bite at the cherry. He finished second as the NDP candidate in 2015. The Greens actually topped the poll on the day, but there were a tonne of advance votes there that broke overwhelmingly for the Liberals. The current NDP leader Joe Byrne was in fourth place in his riding as the party collapsed to 3% of the vote province-wide. All independent candidates garnered embarrassingly low numbers. The final seat count on the night is 12 PC, 8 Green, 6 Liberal.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 24, 2019 3:28:03 GMT
Final result:
36.5% ( -00.9%) = 12 (+04) "ProgressiveCons." (contradictio in se!) 30.6% (+19.8%) = 08 (+06) Greens 29.5% ( -11.3%) = 06 ( -10) Liberals 03.0% ( -08.0%) NDP 00.4% Independents
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 24, 2019 3:34:28 GMT
Concerming the pollsters ForumResearch underpolled the Tories once again only a little bit (as in Alberta), the other companies far more. Could be of interest next fall.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Apr 24, 2019 7:37:10 GMT
Concerming the pollsters ForumResearch underpolled the Tories once again only a little bit (as in Alberta), the other companies far more. Could be of interest next fall. The polls were wildly off in Alberta too (although, luckily for them, not in the 'other' direction thus most people didn't much notice it).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 24, 2019 10:43:33 GMT
As mentioned above, the Greens ultimately underpolling might in this case be partly down to organisation (or rather lack of it)
Will be very interesting to see where they go now that they are firmly established.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 24, 2019 10:50:34 GMT
As mentioned above, the Greens ultimately underpolling might in this case be partly down to organisation (or rather lack of it) Will be very interesting to see where they go now that they are firmly established. If Canadian elections are anything to go by - landslide victory followed by complete slump followed by spectacular recovery followed by historic defeat, followed by.....
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 24, 2019 10:53:21 GMT
Yes, their elections do seem rather more "swingy" than ours.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 24, 2019 11:10:28 GMT
As mentioned above, the Greens ultimately underpolling might in this case be partly down to organisation (or rather lack of it) Will be very interesting to see where they go now that they are firmly established. If Canadian elections are anything to go by - landslide victory followed by complete slump followed by spectacular recovery followed by historic defeat, followed by..... According to CBC’s website a PC government was statistically to be expected as PEI has gone three Liberal terms, three PC terms and last night was the end of another third Liberal term.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 24, 2019 11:46:51 GMT
Concerming the pollsters ForumResearch underpolled the Tories once again only a little bit (as in Alberta), the other companies far more. Could be of interest next fall. The polls were wildly off in Alberta too (although, luckily for them, not in the 'other' direction thus most people didn't much notice it). Yes, but ForumResearch had done by far best, missed the 4 main parties by "only" 9.1% (2.3% per party).
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goose
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Post by goose on Apr 24, 2019 11:59:06 GMT
After all the Green media hype it would make me chuckle to see a surprise PC victory. Prepare to chuckle. Chuckling has occurred.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 26, 2019 3:26:08 GMT
Full slate of Liberal candidates announced for the Newfoundland & Labrador election next month. PCs missing in Waterford Valley, a St John's-area seat where they finished third last time. There are only 14 NDP candidates, so they'll do well to stay in the legislature. The new Alliance party managed just 9 candidates in the end, whilst there are also 9 independents running.
Looks like by far the best chance of a Liberal win in a provincial election since the Trudeau honeymoon period ended.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on May 5, 2019 23:51:21 GMT
I chatted yesterday with my sister, who has lived in Alberta since 2012. She says that the NDP victory in 2015 was basically an accident, with lots of MLAs getting elected unexpectedly after being paper candidates. Lots of voters voted for the NDP in protest at the incumbent administration but without expecting their numbers to be sufficient to win.
The UCP victory this time was a return to normality. She says that UCP people are all very nice and friendly as individuals, and it's only when they herd together in packs that they suddenly look like homophobic Trump supporters. Even then, being distinctly Canadian (and not USA) is more important than anything else.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 8, 2019 4:41:01 GMT
The last by-election of the current federal Parliament has taken place. There are a couple more vacancies outstanding, but the former MPs in question resigned late enough for their seats not to have to be filled before the general election in October.
This final ballot was the latest to be caused by the NDP merry-go-round stemming from municipal elections last year. Leonard Krog was elected mayor of the city of Nanaimo on Vancouver Island, so he had to resign the provincial seat of the same name. Sheila Malcolmson therefore decided to resign as MP for the federal riding of Nanaimo—Ladysmith in order to replace him, and was successful. This in turn caused the further vacancy that was filled earlier this week.
Long story short, the Greens now have two elected MPs in the Canadian Commons in an unprecedented triumph. They've had a few defections before (Blair Wilson from the Liberals on the BC mainland, Bruce Hyer from the NDP in northern Ontario, and a couple more Dippers in Québec on the eve of dissolution in 2015) but this is the first time more than one member elected as a Green will sit in the House, if only for 4 months before the next campaign gets underway.
The present Nanaimo—Ladysmith constituency was created from parts of two seats, which were both NDP-Conservative semi-marginals. One was slightly more favourable to the latter party than the other. At the last federal election, the Liberals had surprisingly finished second 116 votes and 0.1% ahead of the Conservatives, at the height of Trudeaumania II. The Green Party were only fourth but on a healthy 19.8%, in line with many good performances in that area of the island.
At the provincial by-election, the Green vote had cratered by 12.5 percentage points to just 7.3%, but the dynamics were different. The Greens are propping up an NDP minority government, and a New Democrat loss would've seen it fall there. This time the Green vote ballooned to 37.3%, although only a little over a thousand raw votes more than at the general election. A turnout of 41% was not to be sniffed at, but pales in comparison to the 75% of 2015.
Paul Manly is the new MP for the riding and will sit with Elizabeth May (who represents nearby Saanich—Gulf Islands) in Parliament. The Tories' John Hirst finished ahead of local chief Bob Chamberlin of the NDP in the race for second place. The Liberal vote fell to 11% with Michelle Corfield as their candidate, but that's still more than the Liberals got, by any metric, in the transposed result for the seat from the 2011 election. The People's Party got 3.1% of the vote, the Progressive Canadians (who never accepted the PCs' merger with Reform/the Alliance 15+ years ago) managed 0.6% and micro-party the National Citizens Alliance garnered a mere 66 votes, or 0.2% of the total.
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Post by redvers on May 8, 2019 12:53:03 GMT
Bad omens for the NDP. Despite the Liberal decline, they're still polling worse than 2015.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 12, 2019 4:14:11 GMT
There are only 111 candidates in the Newfoundland & Labrador election. This is the same number as in PEI, which has 13 fewer seats and less than a third of the population. Before the 2015 election, there was a hasty boundary review that cut the number of constituencies on the mainland from 44 to 36. At the time there was a bit of an outcry, but if it's proved that difficult to recruit candidates, I can understand why the then-government went ahead with it.
Fun bit of trivia: this will be the 50th general election, but the subsequent House of Assembly will only be the 49th (going back to colonial times; it'll be the 21st as a province). In 1836 the Chief Justice of the colony voided the election result and the resultant legislature never set. A new election was held the following year.
Anyway, here are some seats to watch in the coming week:
Possible NDP
St John's Centre: Vacated by former NDP leader Gerry Rogers after just one term. Jim Dinn is hoping to succeed her as MHA in a three-way fight. St John's East—Quidi Vidi: Vacated by former NDP leader Lorraine Michael after considerably longer than her colleague. New leader Alison Coffin has a good chance of holding on, but the Liberals have high hopes of wiping them out via their candidate George Murphy. Waterford Valley: A nomination papers cock-up by the PCs means this is a direct battle between Liberal incumbent Tom Osborne and New Democrat challenger Matthew Cooper, so if people are fed up with the Liberals it could flip to the Dippers by default. West Labrador: The only NDP candidate on the peninsula, Jordan Brown (in a seat they've held before) is confident of knocking off incumbent Graham Letto in a tri-cornered contest.
Possible independent
Humber—Bay of Islands: Former Liberal Eddie Joyce is attempting to retain his seat as an independent candidate in a four-way race. Mount Pearl—Southlands: Confused Tory-turned-Liberal incumbent Paul Lane is now not representing either party. He might have enough of a personal vote to carry him past candidates from the 3 main parties this time.
Possible NL Alliance
Mount Scio: Well, this is where they're putting up their leader. The election call genuinely appeared to catch them off guard. Seems like they were preparing for a November ballot. The sole poll that prompted for them had them on just 2% of voting intentions... and that didn't take into account that they're only running in under a quarter of ridings. This district in the north of the capital (or 'Town' as the locals call it) is an open seat since political chameleon Dale Kirby is standing down, and there are 3 other candidates vying to replace him.
Probable Liberal
Cartwright—L'Anse au Clair: Conservatives have withdrawn their endorsement from homophobic candidate Michael Normore. He says he'll sit as an independent if elected, though he won't appear as such on the ballot paper. In any case, incumbent Lisa Dempster will sail him in this, er... straight fight. Incidentally, Cartwright is a mainly francophone town and L'Anse au Clair is a largely English-speaking one, despite the respective names. Humber—Gros Morne: The Premier's seat. Surprisingly, only the Tories have put up a challenger to him here. Virginia Waters—Pleasantville: In a sign of how tough it's been to recruit candidates, the PCs' contender to incumbent Bernard Davis is the sister of party leader Ches Crosbie. There is also an NDP candidate.
Probable Conservative
Ferryland: Incumbent Keith Hutchings is hanging up his lanyard, and notably there is also an independent candidate in the running. Fortune Bay—Cape La Hune: Tracey Perry is also calling it a day, but this is a simple two-way fight. Charlene Walsh should hold for the Conservatives, but it's worth drawing attention to the terrifically named Liberal challenger, Elvis Loveless. Windsor Lake: The Leader of the Opposition's seat, and currently his party's only one in the St John's area. He should comfortably see off Liberal and NDP opponents, but knows the PCs must do better in the wider region.
Possible Tory gain
Burin—Grand Bank: Bill Matthews of the PCs would need a huge swing to take this one back from incumbent Carol Anne Haley, but he might just pull it off. Harbour Grace—Port de Grave: The only seat on the Avalon peninsula with only 2 candidates. The Tories fancy their chances of knocking out incumbent Pam Parsons.
Overall the conditions are in place for a Liberal win. All 27 incumbents are re-offering, and they can afford for up to 6 of them to fall (assuming no gains, which also aren't out of the question) but I'm only predicting 4 losses. Their decline in eastern Canada has not been as precipitous as it was in Ontario, Québec or the Prairies. Polls have them around the 40-45% mark and show voters are generally satisfied with the government and that Dwight Ball is favoured as best possible Premier over the other leaders.
The NDP is simply looking for survival in the legislature. Three years ago, they actually led in one poll! Now those surveys place them at 11-15%, which is not bad in the circumstances. Their leader impressed in the TV debate, but an easy attack line from the main two parties is that they can't even theoretically build a majority government (and in the case of an orange surge, would still be extremely unlikely to even form the largest caucus), so a vote for them is wasted. They are a bit of a shambles and could be punished for not managing to run a full slate.
The Alliance will be praying for a foothold in the House, but not realistically expecting one. They weren't even invited to the debate. Where they're running they could be enough of a spoiler to prevent further Conservative gains, as they seem to be trying to appeal to disaffected Tories most of all. Some independent candidates are potential wild cards, and if they are successful a hung Assembly is not totally unthinkable.
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Post by redvers on May 13, 2019 12:37:49 GMT
Interesting analysis, Foggy. Many thanks.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 14, 2019 5:37:02 GMT
Interesting analysis, Foggy. Many thanks. You're welcome. Now let's see how much egg I have on my face on Friday morning!
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 16, 2019 2:18:42 GMT
An eve-of-election poll in Newfoundland gives a 4-point Conservative lead, with the NDP tanking on 8% and the Alliance up slightly to 3%.
Time to prepare for more Liberal humiliation after all??
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 16, 2019 22:26:39 GMT
Polling stations are about to close in Newfoundland (they might still be open for a bit longer in Labrador, which is half an hour behind). Coverage from the public service broadcaster can be found here. The NDP has been ridiculed for suggesting that voters who support them spoil their ballot by writing their own name on the piece of paper in the 26 ridings where they aren't running this time, although they seem to have stepped back from that position now. The PCs took the unusual step of criticising the ostensibly politically neutral Lieutenant-Governor, who is ex-Liberal MP Judy Foote. This arrangement isn't that unusual in the province. Foote visited her former constituency at the start of the week, but claimed it was just to visit her elderly aunts. She then made an impromptu stop at a local school which, although the pupils are too young to vote, does look a little more like campaigning. Either the Tories are spooked to resort to such a desperate accusation, or there's actually some substance to it and it's the Liberals who must be very worried if they've stooped to that sort of tactic. I guess we're about to find out which it is...
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 16, 2019 22:41:03 GMT
It seems the Labrador peninsula has finished voting as well. Bit harsh to make them all pack up half an hour early there, really.
I forgot that in this province, the advance votes are counted early and then the result is 'sat on' and released as soon as polls close. So we have one set of figures for all 40 seats, but they might be misleading as there's a long way still to go.
The CBC says the Liberals are down 7, but they are using 2015 as the baseline rather than the standings at dissolution.
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