goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
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Post by goose on Apr 23, 2019 12:01:33 GMT
PEI election today. The difficulty of polling as small a population as PEI (there have only been 4 polls since the election was called), plus the fact what polls there are show a good 3-way split, makes it hard to predict what's going to happen. Likliest outcome is no-one secures a majority, though what proportion of seats each party gets is anyone's guess - just to complicate things, the last poll had the Progressive Conservatives in the lead for the first time in years. After all the Green media hype it would make me chuckle to see a surprise PC victory.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,512
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 23, 2019 13:03:42 GMT
The problem the Greens have is that they start a long way back in most seats. Apparently their increase is coming from rural areas almost as much as the (relatively) large towns, but this could indicate that they're doing well enough to win a lot of close second places ad very few seats.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 23, 2019 13:29:23 GMT
PEI election today. The difficulty of polling as small a population as PEI (there have only been 4 polls since the election was called), plus the fact what polls there are show a good 3-way split, makes it hard to predict what's going to happen. Likliest outcome is no-one secures a majority, though what proportion of seats each party gets is anyone's guess - just to complicate things, the last poll had the Progressive Conservatives in the lead for the first time in years. After the accuracy of your Alberta prediction I'd have hoped for a bit less equivocation from you here
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Post by redvers on Apr 23, 2019 13:53:19 GMT
PEI election today. The difficulty of polling as small a population as PEI (there have only been 4 polls since the election was called), plus the fact what polls there are show a good 3-way split, makes it hard to predict what's going to happen. Likliest outcome is no-one secures a majority, though what proportion of seats each party gets is anyone's guess - just to complicate things, the last poll had the Progressive Conservatives in the lead for the first time in years. After the accuracy of your Alberta prediction I'd have hoped for a bit less equivocation from you here As would I. I tried working out some seat numbers on a bit of paper but promptly threw it away. PEI is normally an impregnable two-party system - there's nothing I can really work from in estimating this unprecedented three-way split. Combine that with the small electorates and the greater impact individual candidates can have, and I just gave up. I am very intrigued as to how this all ends.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,984
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Post by maxque on Apr 23, 2019 15:06:07 GMT
PEI is pretty much Isle of Wight but with a much wider Solent.
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Post by polaris on Apr 23, 2019 15:06:42 GMT
PEI was the last Canadian province to have multi-member constituencies. Until 1996, it had a parliament of 32 members - 2 each elected from 16 ridings. They were elected by FPTP on separate ballots. Those elected on the first ballot were called Assemblymen, and those elected on the second ballot were called Councillors, although there was no difference in status between them.
British Columbia used to have a couple of two-seaters although most of their MLAs were elected from single-member ridings; the two-seater ridings were abolished in time for the 1991 election.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,516
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 23, 2019 16:41:03 GMT
PEI is pretty much Isle of Wight but with a much wider Solent. Have you been to the Isle of Wight?!
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,507
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Post by Foggy on Apr 23, 2019 18:05:02 GMT
PEI was the last Canadian province to have multi-member constituencies. Until 1996, it had a parliament of 32 members - 2 each elected from 16 ridings. They were elected by FPTP on separate ballots. Those elected on the first ballot were called Assemblymen, and those elected on the second ballot were called Councillors, although there was no difference in status between them. This was a result of the two houses of the Parliament being merged. 'Councillors' was a reference to the former Legislative Council. Compare the legislatures of the Channel Islands with Senators and Deputies sitting together in the 'Estates'. In effect, then, the upper house was not fully abolished until 1996. The first elections held under the current system were also the only ones at which an NDP MLA was returned. Anyway, here are some ridings to watch tonight (it's actually more than half of them)... District 1. Souris—Elimra: No NDP candidate this time, whereas last time there was no Green. Has a Tory incumbent re-offering. District 3. Montague—Kilmuir: No incumbent here, though it's Liberal-held. The then-NDP leader foolishly stood here last time because it's where he was from, and finished a stronger third than a random NDP candidate would've done. District 4. Belfast—Murray River: No NDP candidate this year, and an independent withdrew too late to be off the ballot. There are signs up outside polling stations warning voters that he's pulled out. It's being reported in local media that votes for him will count as a spoilt paper, but it's not clear if that's legally sound. The seat has a Conservative incumbent. District 5. Mermaid—Stratford: Replaces Vernon River—Stratford. The Liberals won on a coin toss after a tied vote in 2015, but the incumbent isn't pushing his luck this time. District 8. Stanhope—Marshfield: The Premier's seat. Shifts regions from rural Malpeque to the capital city area and replaces York—Oyster Bed. District 11. Charlottetown—Belvedere: Replaces Charlottetown—Parkdale. Won by the Liberals 4 years ago but since gained by Green Party in a by-election. District 12. Charlottetown—Victoria Park: Has a Liberal incumbent, but the current NDP leader is trying his luck here. District 13. Charlottetown—Brighton: Has a Liberal incumbent, but the then-PC leader lost by only 0.8% (22 votes) last time out. District 14. Charlottetown—West Royalty: No incumbent here. The NDP runner-up from 2015 Gord McNeilly is now looking to hold it for the Liberals, whilst another previously Liberal MLA, the terrifically named Bush Dumville, from a different seat is running as independent candidate. District 15. Brackley—Hunter River: Notionally Liberal, replaces West Royalty—Springvale. No incumbent, and the present PC leader is running here. District 17. New Haven—Rocky Point: Replaces Kellys Cross–Cumberland. No NDP candidate this time. The Green leader is seeking re-election. He ought to hold safely. District 19. Borden—Kinkora: A Tory incumbent and should be a hold. Notable as the only seat other than District 14 with 5 candidates standing, as an independent has thrown their hat into the ring. District 25. O'Leary—Inverness: Has a Liberal incumbent, but the aforementioned ex-NDP leader Herb Dickieson is looking to regain the modern equivalent of his former seat. District 26. Alberton—Bloomfield: Replaces Alberton—Roseville and has a Liberal incumbent. No Green last time, so they're unlikely to win starting from zero. Under normal circumstances the remaining 12 constituencies should all be clear and comfortable holds for either the Liberals or PC, but with a Green surge in the polls, who knows?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 23, 2019 18:18:43 GMT
PEI elections are a perfect graveyard of buried hopes.
(Now who can tell us what that's a quote from)
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,507
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Post by Foggy on Apr 23, 2019 19:11:59 GMT
PEI elections are a perfect graveyard of buried hopes. (Now who can tell us what that's a quote from) Google tells me it was Lucy Maud, but I should really have recognised a quotation from Anne with an E without resorting to a search engine. Peter Bevan-Baker noted in the 2015 TV debate that Anne Shirley dyed her hair green because she was tired of being a redhead!
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 23, 2019 22:42:53 GMT
Seat nr.25 is in: LPC ahead of the NDP-leader!
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 23, 2019 23:27:56 GMT
Surprising turn: The Tories are presently at over 41% (40.8% are needed according to CBC for an OverallMajority). The leads in the seats point rather to a hung parliament.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 23, 2019 23:40:59 GMT
SeatsLeads: 11 CPC 09 Greens 06 LPC 01 -
The Tories are close in 1 LPC-seat, but will probably end below the 14 seats needed. (Resulting in a GREENS-minority supported by LPC?)
The referendum on PR or FPTP seems to be clear: PR is not far away from 50%, but it won't get the 60% of seats, which are required too.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 23, 2019 23:45:05 GMT
CBC predicting Minority Government, but unclear whether it’ll be a PC or Green minority.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 23, 2019 23:47:54 GMT
As was expectable, CBC has proclaimed a hung parliament.
Wonder, whom the Lib.s - who are in danger of being squeezed in future - will tolerate; perhaps they'll see the GREENS as more dangerous for them and prefer their old arch-enemies?
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 24, 2019 0:10:28 GMT
The PM has lost his seat to the Tories!
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Post by redvers on Apr 24, 2019 0:20:57 GMT
PEI election today. The difficulty of polling as small a population as PEI (there have only been 4 polls since the election was called), plus the fact what polls there are show a good 3-way split, makes it hard to predict what's going to happen. Likliest outcome is no-one secures a majority, though what proportion of seats each party gets is anyone's guess - just to complicate things, the last poll had the Progressive Conservatives in the lead for the first time in years. After all the Green media hype it would make me chuckle to see a surprise PC victory. Prepare to chuckle.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Apr 24, 2019 0:22:22 GMT
Election night coverage here:
edit: nevermind. the stream has ceased to be. Much like the liberal government.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,507
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Post by Foggy on Apr 24, 2019 0:42:02 GMT
The referendum is a definite NO to MMP, by the way, for the second time in 14 years.
Elections PEI are reporting that 11 of the 27 districts have voted against reform. The law was written in such a way that electoral reform would not be adopted if at least 11 districts blocked it, even if there is a majority province-wide.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 24, 2019 1:23:34 GMT
The referendum is a definite NO to MMP, by the way, for the second time in 14 years. Elections PEI are reporting that 11 of the 27 districts have voted against reform. The law was written in such a way that electoral reform would not be adopted if at least 11 districts blocked it, even if there is a majority province-wide. ...and the last time i saw the PerCentages on CBC MMP was at 48.?%, what means, that the PR/...-crowd will have to wait with putting up another referendum for some time.
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