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Post by redvers on Apr 17, 2019 4:25:15 GMT
Need to wake up more. That's 4 Calgary seats they're leading in, and they're 28 votes behind in another one.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 17, 2019 4:51:37 GMT
Only the fifth change of government ever in Albertan history. The NDP become the first party not to build a decades-long dynasty and instead lose after just one term, but still had one of their best results ever.
Notley says she'll stay on as Leader of HM Loyal Opposition. (Yes, her exact words!) It'll be a stronger opposition than the one her father once led. A 45%-40% result would've had them ruing the merger on the right. As it is, the polls were wrong and a 54%-32% result suggests the NDP would've lost anyway. In that respect it's a pity Notley didn't just unashamedly govern from the left, if she was only ever gonna get a single term.
Extraordinary that other PC/Wildrose breakaways, including some independent candidates, got nowhere. A few NDP incumbents in rural Alberta who benefited from a perfect split 4 years ago were utterly routed this time. The Liberal leader came 4th in his riding and the Alberta Party leader only finished 3rd in his. In 2015 there were five parties represented in the legislature (although only 3 in large enough numbers for a caucus); now there will only be two. One hopes that in 2023 a viable centrist party can emerge.
Kenney rants at the federal government and addresses Québec directly in his victory speech. He also referred to "foreign-funded special interest groups" apparently trying to undermine his campaign, which comes across as bizarre. Clearly a majority* of Albertan voters don't care about taking conspiracy theories out of the alt-right playbook.
*EDIT: Just saw on CBC coverage the turnout was just 56.6%, less than 5% up on 2015, so potentially under 30% of the eligible electorate is certifiably insane. The TV pundits also highlighted a handful of seats that could flip when advance votes are counted later in the week.
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Post by redvers on Apr 17, 2019 5:01:10 GMT
Notley comes into opposition with at least some advantages. They've managed to maintain a foothold in Calgary (remember, just 5 years ago, it would have been considered an achievement for the NDP to win just one Calgary seat), so they're not just an Edmonton-only party, although they'll have an extraordinarily difficult time breaking into the rest of Alberta anytime soon.
A usual feature of Alberta politics is a dominant conservative party, with a number of rump parties fighting over the scraps. At least the NDP will have the advantage of being the undisputed opposition, seeing as it's one of the very few results in Alberta's history where only two parties won seats.
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Post by redvers on Apr 17, 2019 5:08:22 GMT
Only the fifth change of government ever in Albertan history. The NDP become the first party not to build a decades-long dynasty and instead lose after just one term, but still had one of their best results ever. Notley says she'll stay on as Leader of HM Loyal Opposition. (Yes, her exact words!) It'll be a stronger opposition than the one her father once led. A 45%-40% result would've had them ruing the merger on the right. As it is, the polls were wrong and a 54%-32% result suggests the NDP would've lost anyway. In that respect it's a pity Notley didn't just unashamedly govern from the left, if she was only ever gonna get a single term. Extraordinary that other PC/Wildrose breakaways, including some independent candidates, got nowhere. A few NDP incumbents in rural Alberta who benefited from a perfect split 4 years ago were utterly routed this time. The Liberal leader came 4th in his riding and the Alberta Party leader only finished 3rd in his. In 2015 there were five parties represented in the legislature (although only 3 in large enough numbers for a caucus); now there will only be two. One hopes that in 2023 a viable centrist party can emerge. Kenney rants at the federal government and addresses Québec directly in his victory speech. He also referred to "foreign-funded special interest groups" apparently trying to undermine his campaign, which comes across as bizarre. Clearly a majority* of Albertan voters don't care about taking conspiracy theories out of the alt-right playbook. *EDIT: Just saw on CBC coverage the turnout was just 56.6%, less than 5% up on 2015, so potentially under 30% of the eligible electorate is certifiably insane. The TV pundits also highlighted a handful of seats that could flip when advance votes are counted later in the week. Yeah, whilst I dare say my seat prediction was pretty spot on, I had the NDP on around 38% so that was way off. I suppose, under the circumstances, the NDP concentrated their vote pretty okay.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 17, 2019 6:13:08 GMT
CTV had a list of ten interesting constituencies to watch; the list includes Drayton Valley/Devon, which is where my sister lives. It is a safe UCP seat, and the member was re-elected with 67% of the votes - but it was on the list of "interesting" constituencies because the MLA made some allegedly homophobic remarks several years ago.
In 2015 my sister was in Stony Plain constituency, but the new Spruce Grove/Stony Plain constituency is much smaller (despite the name) and she is now in Drayton Valley/Devon. In 2015 she supported the NDP but now I'm not sure what she thinks of the UCP. She isn't a Canadian citizen (yet) so wasn't able to vote; she is more involved in school/parent politics rather than Alberta/Canada politics.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 17, 2019 10:39:09 GMT
Well the polls got the popular vote here way out, which is slightly depressing. Proof positive that Alberta is part of "Jesusland".
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Post by redvers on Apr 17, 2019 11:58:19 GMT
And spare a thought for the poor Alberta Liberals. After making a serious challenge for power in 1993, they've lost seats at every election since bar one, and now they've finally run out of MLAs.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 17, 2019 12:20:43 GMT
Éric Grenier is also a well-known anti-NDP hack, so... Going to be honest, I didn't know he has that reputation. Always thought he was seen as a reputable guy. Anything you can link me to? Believe me, I'm hoping I'm wrong. My interest in Alberta is a long story and to me it seems Notley has been a commendable steward of the province and I hope she pulls off an upset! Well, the seat projection was good, it was assuming a much closer result (losing by 10 instead of 20).
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Post by redvers on Apr 17, 2019 15:06:10 GMT
Going to be honest, I didn't know he has that reputation. Always thought he was seen as a reputable guy. Anything you can link me to? Believe me, I'm hoping I'm wrong. My interest in Alberta is a long story and to me it seems Notley has been a commendable steward of the province and I hope she pulls off an upset! Well, the seat projection was good, it was assuming a much closer result (losing by 10 instead of 20). Grenier's basically come out and effectively said his seat projection was a lucky guess - if he'd put the real vote share into his model, it would have had the NDP way down in seats.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 17, 2019 21:02:53 GMT
And spare a thought for the poor Alberta Liberals. After making a serious challenge for power in 1993, they've lost seats at every election since bar one, and now they've finally run out of MLAs. Yes, this was a poor show from them, although I think they were shut out of the legislature once before. At the time the Liberal brand wasn't as toxic as it was in Alberta now. At the very least someone will always be around to run a few candidates to keep the party registered and make sure the Liberal Party name lives on at provincial level. The Alberta Party, on the other hand, now face even more of an existential crisis. All the hard work they put into winning a seat in 2015 was thrown away by Greg Clark's sudden and unexpected resignation as leader in order to facilitate entryism from an eccentric but unpopular former Progressive Conservative. They're just as likely to be disbanded by 2023 as to make a comeback, in my opinion. Next time the televised debate might well involve only two leaders. That'll make things much tougher for third parties. You're correct that the NDP vote was actually surprisingly efficient. If you'd told me before what the popular vote would be, I'd have guessed it'd produce something more like a 75-12 blowout in terms of seats.
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Post by redvers on Apr 18, 2019 16:06:17 GMT
Two more provincial elections within the next 4 weeks: Prince Edward Island on April 23rd, and an election just called in Newfoundland and Labrador for May 16th. PEI discussed earlier - Greens stand a chance of electing their first government, though current polling suggests it could be a messy result. Last poll had the 3 main parties all within 6 points of each other!
N&L could also be interesting. Don't know very much about the politics there, except the polling suggests to an outsider like me that both the Liberals and PCs have a good shot. The NDP has been in steady decline in the polls since 2016 and the last-minute change in leader won't help at all. Suggests yet more of the NDP vote could be squeezed.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 18, 2019 22:58:04 GMT
There's no registered Green Party at provincial level in Newfoundland, and there probably won't be many independent candidates again either. A new party called the NL Alliance just about registered in time before dissolution and has put a few candidates in place, but will likely not be in a position to run a full slate. The NDP there is in disarray with both incuments retiring and, as mentioned, an unknown leader.
In PEI, the Green leader – a Scottish-born former dentist, no less – comes out on top in (admittedly rare) polls about voters' favoured Premier, but party voting intention could still see a virtual three-way tie. If it doesn't turn out to be a 'wave' election, then that almost certainly favours the existing main two parties. There will also be yet another referendum on reforming the electoral system held on the same day as the election.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 20, 2019 5:58:02 GMT
All campaigns suspended in PEI following the death of the Green candidate in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park. Greens have actually suspended theirs until election day.
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Post by redvers on Apr 20, 2019 12:21:35 GMT
All campaigns suspended in PEI following the death of the Green candidate in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park. Greens have actually suspended theirs until election day. Not sure how I feel about this. Whilst I suppose it's respectful to suspend campaigning for the day, suspending it until election day seems a little much. One has to assume a Green candidate would not begrudge his Green compatriots carrying on campaigning for what might be the first Green government.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 20, 2019 14:16:44 GMT
All campaigns suspended in PEI following the death of the Green candidate in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park. Greens have actually suspended theirs until election day. Not sure how I feel about this. Whilst I suppose it's respectful to suspend campaigning for the day, suspending it until election day seems a little much. One has to assume a Green candidate would not begrudge his Green compatriots carrying on campaigning for what might be the first Green government. Seems much smaller when you realize the election is on Tuesday, so that's like 3 days.
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Post by redvers on Apr 20, 2019 14:25:58 GMT
Not sure how I feel about this. Whilst I suppose it's respectful to suspend campaigning for the day, suspending it until election day seems a little much. One has to assume a Green candidate would not begrudge his Green compatriots carrying on campaigning for what might be the first Green government. Seems much smaller when you realize the election is on Tuesday, so that's like 3 days. Even still, a bit much.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 20, 2019 14:54:35 GMT
All campaigns suspended in PEI following the death of the Green candidate in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park. Greens have actually suspended theirs until election day. Not just "died", but specifically he, and his son, were killed in a canoeing accident.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Foggy on Apr 21, 2019 1:06:46 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Apr 21, 2019 3:45:29 GMT
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Post by redvers on Apr 23, 2019 10:22:56 GMT
PEI election today. The difficulty of polling as small a population as PEI (there have only been 4 polls since the election was called), plus the fact what polls there are show a good 3-way split, makes it hard to predict what's going to happen. Likliest outcome is no-one secures a majority, though what proportion of seats each party gets is anyone's guess - just to complicate things, the last poll had the Progressive Conservatives in the lead for the first time in years.
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