Foggy
Non-Aligned
Inactivist
Posts: 5,551
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Post by Foggy on Apr 13, 2019 18:39:13 GMT
I suspect that outside of the two cities, it'll only be Lethbridge East and West, plus a few seats like Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville around Edmonton on a good night. On a very good night they might hold on to Lesser Slave Lake or Red Deer North (eating up the Liberal vote there.) Personally I'm hoping the NDP don't gain too much, because I wouldn't mind them losing in Edmonton-McClung. Any particular reason why Edmonton-McClung? The leader of the Alberta Party is running there. Ex-leader Greg Clark is more likely to win in his seat in Calgary. The former used to be a Tory; the latter emphasised centrist and broadly progressive credentials. The party is the only one other than the UCP and NDP to be running a full slate of 87 candidates. Liberal leader Dave Khan might just win the riding vacated by Wayne Swann, but that party is mainly confined to standing in urban constituencies these days.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,460
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Post by mboy on Apr 15, 2019 9:35:13 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 15, 2019 9:36:43 GMT
So.....its the fault of "the left" that Trudeau could be about to blow an "unloseable" election? I see
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 15, 2019 9:40:29 GMT
So.....its the fault of "the left" that Trudeau could be about to blow an "unloseable" election? I see It's a Quillette article. It says what Quillette articles always say. And mboy likes it. Says all I need to know.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,460
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Post by mboy on Apr 15, 2019 9:55:45 GMT
So.....its the fault of "the left" that Trudeau could be about to blow an "unloseable" election? I see Are you pulling a MerseyMike and arguing Trudeau is not of the Left, but of the Right? You recall he outflanked the NDP on the Left?
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 15, 2019 9:56:17 GMT
So.....its the fault of "the left" that Trudeau could be about to blow an "unloseable" election? I see Well in Canada, a significant proportion of "the left" is ensconced in the Liberal party in a way that isn't true elsewhere. If it spends a large amount of time attacking itself it is bound to have an effect.
I would say that the major factor in the Liberal poll decline is the bribery scandal, where Trudeau has contrived to present himself as a PM trying to cover up a cover up. Never a good look.
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Post by redvers on Apr 16, 2019 10:43:11 GMT
The Alberta election is today. The NDP will lose. Although they have gained in polls since the campaign started, it's nowhere near enough to win; although the NDP look to have secured a lead in Edmonton, most of the Calgary seats are now out of their hands. The only saving grace is some of the more hysterical conservatives look to have their hopes dashed - their early dreams that the NDP would be wiped out do not look to be realised, and the NDP should emerge with an okay-sized opposition caucus and live to fight another day.
I'm going with the NDP on 24, the UCP on 62, and the Alberta Party on 1.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Apr 16, 2019 14:27:05 GMT
I'm going with the NDP on 24, the UCP on 62, and the Alberta Party on 1. NDP stands to get around 20 of 27 ridings in Edmonton, 8 of 30 ridings in Calgary and 2 of 30 in the rest of the province (the two Lethbridge seats). So 24 is very low.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Apr 16, 2019 14:49:10 GMT
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Post by redvers on Apr 16, 2019 15:05:44 GMT
I'm going with the NDP on 24, the UCP on 62, and the Alberta Party on 1. NDP stands to get around 20 of 27 ridings in Edmonton, 8 of 30 ridings in Calgary and 2 of 30 in the rest of the province (the two Lethbridge seats). So 24 is very low.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the NDP doing better than I expect, but I fear 30 is really pushing it.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,129
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Post by maxque on Apr 16, 2019 18:02:18 GMT
NDP stands to get around 20 of 27 ridings in Edmonton, 8 of 30 ridings in Calgary and 2 of 30 in the rest of the province (the two Lethbridge seats). So 24 is very low.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the NDP doing better than I expect, but I fear 30 is really pushing it.
Éric Grenier is also a well-known anti-NDP hack, so...
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Post by redvers on Apr 16, 2019 20:16:59 GMT
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the NDP doing better than I expect, but I fear 30 is really pushing it.
Éric Grenier is also a well-known anti-NDP hack, so... Going to be honest, I didn't know he has that reputation. Always thought he was seen as a reputable guy. Anything you can link me to? Believe me, I'm hoping I'm wrong. My interest in Alberta is a long story and to me it seems Notley has been a commendable steward of the province and I hope she pulls off an upset!
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Apr 16, 2019 21:59:40 GMT
So.....its the fault of "the left" that Trudeau could be about to blow an "unloseable" election? I see Well in Canada, a significant proportion of "the left" is ensconced in the Liberal party in a way that isn't true elsewhere. If it spends a large amount of time attacking itself it is bound to have an effect.
I would say that the major factor in the Liberal poll decline is the bribery scandal, where Trudeau has contrived to present himself as a PM trying to cover up a cover up. Never a good look.
Indeed, this scandal has probably reminded Canadians why they abandoned the Liberals in the first place.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 17, 2019 0:34:44 GMT
NDP stands to get around 20 of 27 ridings in Edmonton, 8 of 30 ridings in Calgary and 2 of 30 in the rest of the province (the two Lethbridge seats). So 24 is very low.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see the NDP doing better than I expect, but I fear 30 is really pushing it.
I'd guess: rather 40 than 30.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 17, 2019 2:38:30 GMT
GlobalNews has already called it for UCP.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 17, 2019 2:41:04 GMT
GlobalNews has already called it for UCP. As have CBC.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 17, 2019 3:04:25 GMT
CBC - who are quite openly biased - provided some numbers: NDP is at 34.9% and lost only 0.9% in Calgary, but 11.?% in Edmonton and CentralAlberta.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 17, 2019 3:05:38 GMT
...nontheless most of Calgary fell to UCP (except the central area), while NDP held up well in Edmonton proper.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,274
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 17, 2019 3:55:56 GMT
53%:33%:10%(AP) - the OpinionPolls were far off and the NDP can be pleased by defending ~26 seats.
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Post by redvers on Apr 17, 2019 4:19:18 GMT
The UCP leads or elected in 62, the NDP in 25. Unexpectedly, the lone Alberta Party MLA is comfortably defeated. From the election map, looks like the NDP won a fair majority of ridings in Edmonton, but only fighting for 3 seats in Calgary at this point. As expected, total bloodbath outside the big cities - only Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge West has a chance of holding on.
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