Hamilton and Clyde Valley
Sept 10, 2023 20:02:32 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 3 more like this
Post by yellowfox on Sept 10, 2023 20:02:32 GMT
Given the prominence of the 1967 Hamilton by-election in post-war Scottish political history it may surprise some observers that the last time the town of Hamilton voted in a single Westminster parliamentary constituency was in 1992. 32 years of firstly north-south and latter east-west division ends in 2024 with the creation of the Hamilton and Clyde Valley constituency. Both the geography of the new seat and the fact that the population division of the town of Hamilton was never equal means that this seat can reasonably be considered a continuation of the Lanark and Hamilton East constituency that had existed since 2005.
The first striking thing regarding this change in nomenclature is that for only the second time since 1707 (the first being from 1983 until 2005) that no parliamentary constituency with reference Lanark or Lanarkshire. This mirrors the sad recent loss of the novelist Alasdair Gray, whose best known work is Lanark. However this title refers to an imagined central character rather than a town, although it could be interpreted (it is not the easiest or most straightforward of books) to refer to a kind of personification of the tribulations and fate of Lanarkshire as a county, for it historically encompassed Glasgow and many other towns, and was clearly the most populous Scotland. From the mid 18th century until the 1889 local government reforms Lanarkshire was divided into three ‘wards’. These were Upper, Middle and Lower, with their administrative headquarters at Lanark, Hamilton and Glasgow respectively. As this constituency will continue to contain both the town of Lanark and the centre of Hamilton, it can reasonably claim to be truly the heart of Lanarkshire.
That's not to say, however, that the impact of the boundary review has been trivial, for one thing the removal of the Bothwell & Uddingston ward makes the boundaries of the seat much more pleasant to view. Nevertheless, the seat retains something of an urban-rural contrast between the terrain around Lanark and the new addition of Lesmahagow before becoming steadily more urban through the town of Larkhall and then reaching Hamilton itself. The rural area south of Larkhall does form the Clyde Valley tourist route, being recognised in the constituency name. This is only right in a constituency where this rural tranche of an electorate is reasonably important, as will become apparent when considering the electoral history of this seat.
To consider the political implications of the boundary review first of all, it is clear that the removal of Bothwell & Uddingston ward will harm the Conservatives relative to the other main parties. The seat gaining the rest of Hamilton town whilst losing the area around Carluke (indeed, being left with little of the Clydesdale West ward) will benefit the SNP over Labour as the nationalists’ typically perform better in larger towns across the Scottish central belt. Conversely, the addition of Lesmahagow in the Clydesdale South ward will benefit Labour compared with the SNP (even if this was the only Clydesdale ward in which the SNP led first preferences at the 2022 elections to the South Lanarkshire unitary authority).
Indeed the pattern of those 2022 elections in the wards comprising this seat is familiar to those watching Scottish electoral politics in recent years. The SNP were strongest in two of the Hamilton wards, taking over 40% on the first count in both North & East and West & Earnock (Labour surprisingly narrowly ahead of the SNP in Hamilton South), and Labour leading elsewhere in the seat, although with a reasonably strong Conservative presence in the Clydesdale part of the seat, including in Lanark (Clydesdale North ward). This means its reasonable to conclude that this seat is not as homogeneous as most ‘Lanarkshire’ seats, as it does extend beyond the main industrial belt and also because the upper Clyde valley harbours some attractive places to live, with the Conservative support reflective of this.
Lanark itself, though only having a population of 9,000, has been a Royal Burgh since 1140 and has some of the aspect of a traditional rural market town including its annual Lanimer Day celebration in June. Further north, Larkhall (15,000) had coal mining and ironworks and is (im)famously so small-u unionist that it is home to the only Subway franchise in the world that lacks a green colour scheme (its black). Hamilton, as befits a major urban unit of over 50,000, has a broad-based economy: the Lanarkshire campus of the University of the West of Scotland, local government as the headquarters of the South Lanarkshire authority, Philips electronics, retail parks and superstores, the Barncluith Business Centre, and a surprising number of hotels due to the proximity of multiple junctions of the M74, Scotland’s spinal motorway.
Hamilton’s political history is less dramatic than the well-storied by-election of 1967 might have observers expect. The Hamilton portion of this seat (excluding 1967) was continuously represented by Labour for 97 years between 1918 and 2015, surviving by just over 2,000 votes in Labour’s 1931 nadir but achieving almost a 47% majority and over 73% vote share in 1945. The SNP’s history in the seat was rather bleak prior to 1967, contesting only in 1959 and winning just 6% of the vote, although an early SNP leader, Andrew Dewar-Gibb, was the Unionist challenger to Labour in 1924. Annabelle Ewing (daughter of 1967 winner Winnie) coming within 3 percentage points of Labour in a 1999 Hamilton South by-election notwithstanding, It was therefore no surprise that Labour’s affable ex-miner Jimmy Hood won easily in it first two contests in 2005 and 2010, with the national trend carrying the Nationalists in by 10,000 in their 2015 landslide.
2017, however, saw a remarkable result, almost a three-way tie and the tightest three-way marginal in the UK: the SNP’s Angela Crawley polled 16,444, the Conservatives 16,178 and Labour 16,084. To say this was a shock would be an understatement, the Conservatives haven’t represented Hamilton since 1857 and hadn’t even come second since 1987, although of course this would have been driven by electors outside of Hamilton itself. In 2019 Labour dropped well back, but the Tories exactly maintained their 32.1% share, while the SNP pulled ahead again, much as the Scottish story was in that election.
This means that the Hamilton and Clyde Valley seat is rather vulnerable for the SNP (even if the boundary changes strengthen their notional lead somewhat), with Angela Crawley standing down and depriving them of any incumbency bonus compounding their challenges further. Naturally, given the changes in boundaries and the national environment, in 2024 at least however, this challenge will not be from the Conservatives but from Labour, even if they are still notionally third in terms of their 2019 result. The Tories have lost their favourable areas at point ends of the seat: the rural Clydesdale section in the south east and Uddingston/Bothwell in the north west and may, in time, rue 2017 as a missed opportunity to put down roots in a part of the country where they have been given short shrift for as long as elections in the UK could reasonably be described as “democratic”.
The extraordinary 2017 three way split, however, suggests that there may be scope for ‘unionist’ tactical voting, now clearly to Labour’s advantage. The 2014 referendum result in the (broadly comparable) Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Scottish Parliament constituency is estimated to have matched the national, 55%-45% decision to remain in the United Kingdom. This seat could therefore reasonably be expected to be something of a bellwether for Scottish political opinion, at least for the time being.
One place that does remain within the new Hamilton and Clyde Valley seat is New Lanark mill, a fascinating UNESCO World Heritage Site of a very early socialist experiment under the auspices of Robert Owen – a man with a vision, but one very different form the apocalyptic view of Alasdair Gray’s Lanark. Labour must surely hope that their version of socialism may entice this seat to make an opposing cross of the constitutional divide from that of Andrew Dewar-Gibb and to change its political colours at a UK general election for only the third time in 167 years.
2011 Census: Lanark and Hamilton East
Age 65+ 18.0% 234/650
Owner-occupied 67.3% 313/650
Private rented 8.3% 630/650
Social rented 23.2% 141/650
White 98.2% 90/650
Black 0.2% 546/650
Asian 1.3% 451/650
Born in Scotland 91.7% 9/650
Managerial & professional 30.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.9%
Degree level 23.6% 388/650
No qualifications 30.0% 98/650
Students 6.4% 403/650
General Election 2019: Lanark and Hamilton East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Angela Crawley 22,243 41.9 +9.3
Conservative Shona Haslam 17,056 32.1 0.0
Labour Andrew Hilland 10,736 20.2 -11.7
Liberal Democrats Jane Pickard 3,037 5.7 +3.3
SNP Majority 5,187 9.8 +9.3
2019 electorate 77,659
Turnout 53,072 68.3 +3.0
SNP hold
Swing 4.6 C to SNP
The first striking thing regarding this change in nomenclature is that for only the second time since 1707 (the first being from 1983 until 2005) that no parliamentary constituency with reference Lanark or Lanarkshire. This mirrors the sad recent loss of the novelist Alasdair Gray, whose best known work is Lanark. However this title refers to an imagined central character rather than a town, although it could be interpreted (it is not the easiest or most straightforward of books) to refer to a kind of personification of the tribulations and fate of Lanarkshire as a county, for it historically encompassed Glasgow and many other towns, and was clearly the most populous Scotland. From the mid 18th century until the 1889 local government reforms Lanarkshire was divided into three ‘wards’. These were Upper, Middle and Lower, with their administrative headquarters at Lanark, Hamilton and Glasgow respectively. As this constituency will continue to contain both the town of Lanark and the centre of Hamilton, it can reasonably claim to be truly the heart of Lanarkshire.
That's not to say, however, that the impact of the boundary review has been trivial, for one thing the removal of the Bothwell & Uddingston ward makes the boundaries of the seat much more pleasant to view. Nevertheless, the seat retains something of an urban-rural contrast between the terrain around Lanark and the new addition of Lesmahagow before becoming steadily more urban through the town of Larkhall and then reaching Hamilton itself. The rural area south of Larkhall does form the Clyde Valley tourist route, being recognised in the constituency name. This is only right in a constituency where this rural tranche of an electorate is reasonably important, as will become apparent when considering the electoral history of this seat.
To consider the political implications of the boundary review first of all, it is clear that the removal of Bothwell & Uddingston ward will harm the Conservatives relative to the other main parties. The seat gaining the rest of Hamilton town whilst losing the area around Carluke (indeed, being left with little of the Clydesdale West ward) will benefit the SNP over Labour as the nationalists’ typically perform better in larger towns across the Scottish central belt. Conversely, the addition of Lesmahagow in the Clydesdale South ward will benefit Labour compared with the SNP (even if this was the only Clydesdale ward in which the SNP led first preferences at the 2022 elections to the South Lanarkshire unitary authority).
Indeed the pattern of those 2022 elections in the wards comprising this seat is familiar to those watching Scottish electoral politics in recent years. The SNP were strongest in two of the Hamilton wards, taking over 40% on the first count in both North & East and West & Earnock (Labour surprisingly narrowly ahead of the SNP in Hamilton South), and Labour leading elsewhere in the seat, although with a reasonably strong Conservative presence in the Clydesdale part of the seat, including in Lanark (Clydesdale North ward). This means its reasonable to conclude that this seat is not as homogeneous as most ‘Lanarkshire’ seats, as it does extend beyond the main industrial belt and also because the upper Clyde valley harbours some attractive places to live, with the Conservative support reflective of this.
Lanark itself, though only having a population of 9,000, has been a Royal Burgh since 1140 and has some of the aspect of a traditional rural market town including its annual Lanimer Day celebration in June. Further north, Larkhall (15,000) had coal mining and ironworks and is (im)famously so small-u unionist that it is home to the only Subway franchise in the world that lacks a green colour scheme (its black). Hamilton, as befits a major urban unit of over 50,000, has a broad-based economy: the Lanarkshire campus of the University of the West of Scotland, local government as the headquarters of the South Lanarkshire authority, Philips electronics, retail parks and superstores, the Barncluith Business Centre, and a surprising number of hotels due to the proximity of multiple junctions of the M74, Scotland’s spinal motorway.
Hamilton’s political history is less dramatic than the well-storied by-election of 1967 might have observers expect. The Hamilton portion of this seat (excluding 1967) was continuously represented by Labour for 97 years between 1918 and 2015, surviving by just over 2,000 votes in Labour’s 1931 nadir but achieving almost a 47% majority and over 73% vote share in 1945. The SNP’s history in the seat was rather bleak prior to 1967, contesting only in 1959 and winning just 6% of the vote, although an early SNP leader, Andrew Dewar-Gibb, was the Unionist challenger to Labour in 1924. Annabelle Ewing (daughter of 1967 winner Winnie) coming within 3 percentage points of Labour in a 1999 Hamilton South by-election notwithstanding, It was therefore no surprise that Labour’s affable ex-miner Jimmy Hood won easily in it first two contests in 2005 and 2010, with the national trend carrying the Nationalists in by 10,000 in their 2015 landslide.
2017, however, saw a remarkable result, almost a three-way tie and the tightest three-way marginal in the UK: the SNP’s Angela Crawley polled 16,444, the Conservatives 16,178 and Labour 16,084. To say this was a shock would be an understatement, the Conservatives haven’t represented Hamilton since 1857 and hadn’t even come second since 1987, although of course this would have been driven by electors outside of Hamilton itself. In 2019 Labour dropped well back, but the Tories exactly maintained their 32.1% share, while the SNP pulled ahead again, much as the Scottish story was in that election.
This means that the Hamilton and Clyde Valley seat is rather vulnerable for the SNP (even if the boundary changes strengthen their notional lead somewhat), with Angela Crawley standing down and depriving them of any incumbency bonus compounding their challenges further. Naturally, given the changes in boundaries and the national environment, in 2024 at least however, this challenge will not be from the Conservatives but from Labour, even if they are still notionally third in terms of their 2019 result. The Tories have lost their favourable areas at point ends of the seat: the rural Clydesdale section in the south east and Uddingston/Bothwell in the north west and may, in time, rue 2017 as a missed opportunity to put down roots in a part of the country where they have been given short shrift for as long as elections in the UK could reasonably be described as “democratic”.
The extraordinary 2017 three way split, however, suggests that there may be scope for ‘unionist’ tactical voting, now clearly to Labour’s advantage. The 2014 referendum result in the (broadly comparable) Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Scottish Parliament constituency is estimated to have matched the national, 55%-45% decision to remain in the United Kingdom. This seat could therefore reasonably be expected to be something of a bellwether for Scottish political opinion, at least for the time being.
One place that does remain within the new Hamilton and Clyde Valley seat is New Lanark mill, a fascinating UNESCO World Heritage Site of a very early socialist experiment under the auspices of Robert Owen – a man with a vision, but one very different form the apocalyptic view of Alasdair Gray’s Lanark. Labour must surely hope that their version of socialism may entice this seat to make an opposing cross of the constitutional divide from that of Andrew Dewar-Gibb and to change its political colours at a UK general election for only the third time in 167 years.
2011 Census: Lanark and Hamilton East
Age 65+ 18.0% 234/650
Owner-occupied 67.3% 313/650
Private rented 8.3% 630/650
Social rented 23.2% 141/650
White 98.2% 90/650
Black 0.2% 546/650
Asian 1.3% 451/650
Born in Scotland 91.7% 9/650
Managerial & professional 30.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.9%
Degree level 23.6% 388/650
No qualifications 30.0% 98/650
Students 6.4% 403/650
General Election 2019: Lanark and Hamilton East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Angela Crawley 22,243 41.9 +9.3
Conservative Shona Haslam 17,056 32.1 0.0
Labour Andrew Hilland 10,736 20.2 -11.7
Liberal Democrats Jane Pickard 3,037 5.7 +3.3
SNP Majority 5,187 9.8 +9.3
2019 electorate 77,659
Turnout 53,072 68.3 +3.0
SNP hold
Swing 4.6 C to SNP
