Post by Robert Waller on Dec 4, 2022 21:58:34 GMT
One sad loss in recent years was the Scottish novelist Alasdair Gray, whose best known work is Lanark. However this title refers to an imagined central character rather than a town, although it could be interpreted (it is not the easiest or most straightforward of books) to refer to a kind of personification of the tribulations and fate of Lanark(shire) as a county, for it historically encompassed Glasgow and many other towns, and was by a distance the most populous county in Scotland. From the mid 18th century until the local government reforms of 1889 Lanarkshire was divided into three ‘wards’. These were Upper, Middle and Lower, with their administrative headquarters at Lanark, Hamilton and Glasgow respectively. As this constituency contains both the town of Lanark and the centre of Hamilton, it can reasonably claim to be truly the heart of Lanarkshire.
In fact the boundaries at present look decidedly strained. The constituency is an unusual shape, a bit like a mirror image of Cyprus. To the south east there is a substantial area of rural terrain, surrounding Lanark and Carluke and extending as far east as Tarbrax, bordering the Livingston seat. But this is not where the majority of the electors live. As the seat moves northwestwards, it becomes narrower and narrower, starting with Larkhall, then passing through most of Hamilton, then squeezing to the west of Loch Strathclyde and ending in a kind of isthmus including Bothwell and finally Uddingston. At one point near where the A725 spur joins the M74 there is only enough room for the B7071 Bothwell-Hamilton road. It looks almost like one of the narrow nominal passageways created for the gerrymandered district lines in the USA.
Political advantage is highly unlikely to be the reason for the convoluted borders of Lanark & Hamilton East. Not only was it drawn by an impartial commission, but the electoral map here shows a phalanx of seats that were once held by Labour and now by the SNP. In this constituency as it is at present, Labour’s affable ex-miner Jimmy Hood won easily in it first two contests in 2005 and 2010, then was hammered by the Nationalists by 10,000 in their 2015 landslide. In 2017 there was a remarkable result, almost a three way tie: the SNP’s Angela Crawley polled 16,444, the Conservatives 16,178 and Labour 16,084. In 2019 Labour dropped well back, but the Tories exactly maintained their 32.1% share, while the SNP pulled ahead again. However with a majority of a little over 5,000 Angela Crawley’s seat still ranks as technically its 12th most vulnerable in terms of the swing it needs to defend against.
Internally, the pattern is different: the SNP secured more first preferences than any other party in most of the South Lanarkshire council wards in their most recent contests in May 2022, with Labour their main challengers and taking top spot in some wards as well. Specifically, the SNP were strongest in two of the Hamilton wards, taking over 40% on the first count in both North & East and West & Earnock; the ward boundaries do not align with those of the Westminster constituency here, and it contains parts of both. Essentially this seat contains the whole of the eastern half of Hamilton along with the town centre, including both stations (Central and, indeed, West) and the New Douglas Park football stadium on Cadzow Avenue, home at present to two severely underperforming teams: Hamilton Academical and Clyde FC. It is not surprising that the SNP have some success in Hamilton, for after all its unified constituency was the site of their first modern triumph, when Winnie Ewing won the 1967 byelection. Labour got a little over 30% in the two SNP dominated Hamilton wards in 2022, but did finish top with 45% in Hamilton South, although that figure as boosted by an abnormally thin candidate list; the SNP also scored over 40%.
Outside Hamilton the picture is also mixed. Labour were also top on first preferences in 2022 in Larkhall, Clydesdale North (based on Lanark itself but also including a wide range of villages) and Clydesdale West (the countryside round Carluke). Finally, in the ‘swan’s neck’ at the north end of the constituency, Bothwell & Uddingston saw a near three way tie between the SNP (32%), Labour (30%) and the Conservatives (28%), their best performance within the seat, who benefited from the extensive development of private housing estates, such as those along (Bothwell) Castle Avenue. The Conservatives did poll around a quarter of first preferences in the Clydesdale North and West wards. Although the Tories did easily win Clydesdale East, only a small section is included in this parliamentary seat. Overall, though , the Conservative strength is explicable. The Lanark & Hamilton East division is not as homogeneous as most ‘Lanarkshire’ seats, as it does extend beyond the main industrial belt and also because the upper Clyde valley harbours some attractive places to live.
Lanark itself, though only having a population of 9,000, has been a Royal Burgh since 1140 and has some of the aspect of a traditional rural market town. Further north, Larkhall (15,000) had coal mining and ironworks, and Hamilton, as befits a major urban unit of over 50,000, has a broad-based economy: local government as the headquarters of the South Lanarkshire authority, Philips electronics, retail parks and superstores, the Barncluith Business Centre, and a surprising number of hotels due to the proximity of multiple junctions of the M74, Scotland’s spinal motorway. The Uddingston/Bothwell section has trended decidedly upmarket in recent decades. Overall there are more employed in the Lanark & Hamilton East constituency in professional and managerial jobs than in routine and semi-routine employment. There is enough of a social basis for the Conservatives to have finished clearly second in 2019.
The days are numbered for this interesting constituency, with its three-way political characteristics. In the revised boundary proposals it is split multiple ways. Most (58%) of it will be art of the new Hamilton and Clyde Valley – still long and thin, but on more logical and compact lines than Lanark & Hamilton East. Essentially Hamilton will be reunited, and the Clyde followed through Larkhall to Lanark, with the addition of Kirkmuirhill and Lesmahagow. The last section is now in the unwieldy East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow. The Bothwell & Uddingston ward is transferred to Rutherglen. Clydesdale West and part of Clydesdale North will now be in Motherwell & Clydesdale North.
Overall the political effect should be to strengthen the SNP’s hold in the short term, particularly against the Tories, who lose their favourable areas at both ends of the seat - the rural Clydesdale section in the south east and Uddingston/Bothwell in the north west. With the travails of the government at Westminster and the party as a whole they looked unlikely to challenge in any case, and Labour will hope to recover at the very least their second place and ultimately to challenge again for victory. The extraordinary 2017 three way split suggests that there may be scope for ‘unionist’ tactical voting, as well. The 2014 referendum result in South Lanarkshire was 55%-45% to remain in the United Kingdom. One place that does remain within the new Hamilton & Clyde Valley seat is New Lanark mill, the dramatic and fascinating site of a very early socialist experiment under the auspices of Robert Owen – a man with a vision, but one very different form the apocalyptic view of Alasdair Gray’s Lanark. Labour may hope that their version of socialism may play a role in the political future in these parts.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.0% 234/650
Owner-occupied 67.3% 313/650
Private rented 8.3% 630/650
Social rented 23.2% 141/650
White 98.2% 90/650
Black 0.2% 546/650
Asian 1.3% 451/650
Born in Scotland 91.7% 9/650
Managerial & professional 30.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.9%
Degree level 23.6% 388/650
No qualifications 30.0% 98/650
Students 6.4% 403/650
General Election 2019: Lanark and Hamilton East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Angela Crawley 22,243 41.9 +9.3
Conservative Shona Haslam 17,056 32.1 0.0
Labour Andrew Hilland 10,736 20.2 -11.7
Liberal Democrats Jane Pickard 3,037 5.7 +3.3
SNP Majority 5,187 9.8 +9.3
2019 electorate 77,659
Turnout 53,072 68.3 +3.0
SNP hold
Swing 4.6 C to SNP
In fact the boundaries at present look decidedly strained. The constituency is an unusual shape, a bit like a mirror image of Cyprus. To the south east there is a substantial area of rural terrain, surrounding Lanark and Carluke and extending as far east as Tarbrax, bordering the Livingston seat. But this is not where the majority of the electors live. As the seat moves northwestwards, it becomes narrower and narrower, starting with Larkhall, then passing through most of Hamilton, then squeezing to the west of Loch Strathclyde and ending in a kind of isthmus including Bothwell and finally Uddingston. At one point near where the A725 spur joins the M74 there is only enough room for the B7071 Bothwell-Hamilton road. It looks almost like one of the narrow nominal passageways created for the gerrymandered district lines in the USA.
Political advantage is highly unlikely to be the reason for the convoluted borders of Lanark & Hamilton East. Not only was it drawn by an impartial commission, but the electoral map here shows a phalanx of seats that were once held by Labour and now by the SNP. In this constituency as it is at present, Labour’s affable ex-miner Jimmy Hood won easily in it first two contests in 2005 and 2010, then was hammered by the Nationalists by 10,000 in their 2015 landslide. In 2017 there was a remarkable result, almost a three way tie: the SNP’s Angela Crawley polled 16,444, the Conservatives 16,178 and Labour 16,084. In 2019 Labour dropped well back, but the Tories exactly maintained their 32.1% share, while the SNP pulled ahead again. However with a majority of a little over 5,000 Angela Crawley’s seat still ranks as technically its 12th most vulnerable in terms of the swing it needs to defend against.
Internally, the pattern is different: the SNP secured more first preferences than any other party in most of the South Lanarkshire council wards in their most recent contests in May 2022, with Labour their main challengers and taking top spot in some wards as well. Specifically, the SNP were strongest in two of the Hamilton wards, taking over 40% on the first count in both North & East and West & Earnock; the ward boundaries do not align with those of the Westminster constituency here, and it contains parts of both. Essentially this seat contains the whole of the eastern half of Hamilton along with the town centre, including both stations (Central and, indeed, West) and the New Douglas Park football stadium on Cadzow Avenue, home at present to two severely underperforming teams: Hamilton Academical and Clyde FC. It is not surprising that the SNP have some success in Hamilton, for after all its unified constituency was the site of their first modern triumph, when Winnie Ewing won the 1967 byelection. Labour got a little over 30% in the two SNP dominated Hamilton wards in 2022, but did finish top with 45% in Hamilton South, although that figure as boosted by an abnormally thin candidate list; the SNP also scored over 40%.
Outside Hamilton the picture is also mixed. Labour were also top on first preferences in 2022 in Larkhall, Clydesdale North (based on Lanark itself but also including a wide range of villages) and Clydesdale West (the countryside round Carluke). Finally, in the ‘swan’s neck’ at the north end of the constituency, Bothwell & Uddingston saw a near three way tie between the SNP (32%), Labour (30%) and the Conservatives (28%), their best performance within the seat, who benefited from the extensive development of private housing estates, such as those along (Bothwell) Castle Avenue. The Conservatives did poll around a quarter of first preferences in the Clydesdale North and West wards. Although the Tories did easily win Clydesdale East, only a small section is included in this parliamentary seat. Overall, though , the Conservative strength is explicable. The Lanark & Hamilton East division is not as homogeneous as most ‘Lanarkshire’ seats, as it does extend beyond the main industrial belt and also because the upper Clyde valley harbours some attractive places to live.
Lanark itself, though only having a population of 9,000, has been a Royal Burgh since 1140 and has some of the aspect of a traditional rural market town. Further north, Larkhall (15,000) had coal mining and ironworks, and Hamilton, as befits a major urban unit of over 50,000, has a broad-based economy: local government as the headquarters of the South Lanarkshire authority, Philips electronics, retail parks and superstores, the Barncluith Business Centre, and a surprising number of hotels due to the proximity of multiple junctions of the M74, Scotland’s spinal motorway. The Uddingston/Bothwell section has trended decidedly upmarket in recent decades. Overall there are more employed in the Lanark & Hamilton East constituency in professional and managerial jobs than in routine and semi-routine employment. There is enough of a social basis for the Conservatives to have finished clearly second in 2019.
The days are numbered for this interesting constituency, with its three-way political characteristics. In the revised boundary proposals it is split multiple ways. Most (58%) of it will be art of the new Hamilton and Clyde Valley – still long and thin, but on more logical and compact lines than Lanark & Hamilton East. Essentially Hamilton will be reunited, and the Clyde followed through Larkhall to Lanark, with the addition of Kirkmuirhill and Lesmahagow. The last section is now in the unwieldy East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow. The Bothwell & Uddingston ward is transferred to Rutherglen. Clydesdale West and part of Clydesdale North will now be in Motherwell & Clydesdale North.
Overall the political effect should be to strengthen the SNP’s hold in the short term, particularly against the Tories, who lose their favourable areas at both ends of the seat - the rural Clydesdale section in the south east and Uddingston/Bothwell in the north west. With the travails of the government at Westminster and the party as a whole they looked unlikely to challenge in any case, and Labour will hope to recover at the very least their second place and ultimately to challenge again for victory. The extraordinary 2017 three way split suggests that there may be scope for ‘unionist’ tactical voting, as well. The 2014 referendum result in South Lanarkshire was 55%-45% to remain in the United Kingdom. One place that does remain within the new Hamilton & Clyde Valley seat is New Lanark mill, the dramatic and fascinating site of a very early socialist experiment under the auspices of Robert Owen – a man with a vision, but one very different form the apocalyptic view of Alasdair Gray’s Lanark. Labour may hope that their version of socialism may play a role in the political future in these parts.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.0% 234/650
Owner-occupied 67.3% 313/650
Private rented 8.3% 630/650
Social rented 23.2% 141/650
White 98.2% 90/650
Black 0.2% 546/650
Asian 1.3% 451/650
Born in Scotland 91.7% 9/650
Managerial & professional 30.2%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.9%
Degree level 23.6% 388/650
No qualifications 30.0% 98/650
Students 6.4% 403/650
General Election 2019: Lanark and Hamilton East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Angela Crawley 22,243 41.9 +9.3
Conservative Shona Haslam 17,056 32.1 0.0
Labour Andrew Hilland 10,736 20.2 -11.7
Liberal Democrats Jane Pickard 3,037 5.7 +3.3
SNP Majority 5,187 9.8 +9.3
2019 electorate 77,659
Turnout 53,072 68.3 +3.0
SNP hold
Swing 4.6 C to SNP