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Dorset
Aug 9, 2023 18:50:51 GMT
Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:50:51 GMT
Dorset
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Aug 9, 2023 18:59:35 GMT
No promises on the timetable, but I will be doing a series of ward by ward profiles for Dorset in a similar style to those I did for BCP this year. Most likely they will be geographically grouped starting at the eastern end.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Aug 10, 2023 21:55:00 GMT
Before the ward profiles, an overview of the whole council...
2019 Election Results Inaugural Election
Conservative 43 Liberal Democrats 29 Green Party 4 Independents 4 Labour Party 2
Current Composition
Conservative 42 Liberal Democrats 27 Green Party 5 Alliance for Local Living 4 Labour Party 2 Unaligned Independent 1
The Alliance for Local Living consists of the councillors elected as independents in 2019.
Changes Since 2019
In October 2019, Labour's Kate Wheller of the Rodwell and Wyke Ward left Labour to sit as an independent, depriving Labour of an official group on the Council.
In November 2021, Lib Dem Mike Barron of the Corfe Mullen Ward defected to the Conservatives.
In April 2022, the Green Party's Belinda Bawden took the Lyme and Charmouth Ward in a by election following the resignation of Conservative Daryl Turner.
In October 2022, David Gray of the Raidpole Ward left the Lib Dems to sit as an independent.
In June 2023, Lib Dem Richard Crabb held the Sherborne West Ward for the Lib Dems following the resignation of Matthew Hall.
In January 2024, Conservative Peter Dickenson held the Littlemoor and Preston Ward for the Conservatives following the death of Tony Ferrari. However, Dickenson could not take up his seat due to being disqualified for employment reasons. Additionally during this month, Labour's Kate Wheeler of the Rodwell and Wyke Ward rejoined Labour.
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It used to be Vote 2006
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Dorset
Aug 15, 2023 11:24:22 GMT
Post by It used to be Vote 2006 on Aug 15, 2023 11:24:22 GMT
Before the ward profiles, an overview of the whole council... 2019 Election ResultsInaugural ElectionConservative 43 Liberal Democrats 29 Green Party 4 Independents 4 Labour Party 2 Current CompositionConservative 43 Liberal Democrats 27 Green Party 5 Alliance for Local Living 4 Unaligned Independents 2 Labour Party 1 The Alliance for Local Living consists of the councillors elected as independents in 2019. Worth noting that the sole ALL councillor elected to Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole Council in 2019 (Felicity Rice, Oakdale) was re-elected in 2023 for Poole People. My sense is that this was in the nature of a merger, not a defection. It's not clear to me whether the BCP ALL and the Dorset ALL are branches of the same entity or distinctly constituted but allied groups, nor whether the Dorset one has any structure/organisation beyond the group of elected members.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Sept 11, 2023 15:35:52 GMT
Okay here goes. For now, to get the profiles up I'm just going to include the 2019 result and any by elections since. I will add results for the predecessor councils later if there's time since mapping the boundaries will take quite a while.
West Parley
1 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 3,585 2021 Census Population: 3,660 2011-2021 Population Change: +2.10% Area: 1.74 Square Miles Population Density: 2,103 Per Sqaure Mile Population by Age: Under 18 13.2%, 18-64 49.3%, 65 and Above 37.5% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.8% Largest Non-White Group: Asian 0.5% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.5% Gender: 50.9% Female, 49.1% Male
West Parley is a parished area and the parish is non-partisan.
2019 result: Con 611, UKIP 201, Lib Dem 165.
Sitting Councillor: Andrew Parry, Conservative. Parry is the Cabinet member for Assets and Property. He formerly held the Education portfolio on Dorset County Council.
Background: West Parley sits at the eastern extreme of Dorset Council bordering the Redhill and Northbourne Ward of Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole to the south, Christchurch to the east and Ferndown to the north and west. Ferndown and Parley have attracted numerous proposals for large developments in the past decade or so which have been hugely controversial and contributed towards impressive results in the area for UKIP including a 2013 county council win. One of these developments is currently underway in the centre of Parley which will add substantially to the electorate in the near future.
Prediction: Parley often suffers from a lack of serious opposition to the Tories. A strong local independent would be the most likely challenger.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Sept 24, 2023 23:09:40 GMT
Ferndown South
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 8,120 2021 Census Population: 8,805 2011-2021 Population Change: +8.10% Area: 3.63 Square Miles Population Density: 2,426 Per Sqaure Mile Population by Age: Under 18 17.9%, 18-64 49.0%, 65 and Above 33.1% Percentage Born Abroad: 6.7% Largest Non-White Group: Asian 1.5% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Muslim 0.7% Gender Breakdown: 51.9% Female, 48.1% Male
Prior to the 2019 election, Ferndown was a single division on Dorset County Council returning two councillors.
2019 result: Con 765/689, UKIP 536/487, Lib Dem 474, Ind 371, Lab 264
Sitting Councillors: Rod Atkins and Julie Robinson, both Conservatives.
Background: Ferndown has generally elected Conservative councillors to the predecessor authorities, however UKIP took one of the two county council seats in 2013. 2019 represents one of the better Lib Dem performances in recent years, whilst Labour support has been consistently modest. Although the departure of UKIP could consolidate Conservative support, the 371 votes scored by right wing independent Paul Graham could represent the possibility of continued challenges to the right splitting Conservative support and leading to more close contests in the future. Ferndown South is part of Ferndown Town Council, on which a small majority of Conservative members was returned in 2019. The remainder were almost all being members of a resident's group largely comprised of ex-UKIP supporters.
Prediction: Modest Conservative victory if there is a challenge from the right again, comfortable Conservative victory in any other event.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Sept 24, 2023 23:33:46 GMT
Ferndown North
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 8,513 2021 Census Population: 8,692 2011-2021 Population Change: +2.10% Area: 3.64 Square Miles Population Density: 2,389 Per Sqaure Mile Population by Age: Under 18 12.6%, 18-64 46.5%, 65 and Above 40.9% Percentage Born Abroad: 6.7% Largest Non-White Group: Asian 1.7% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Muslim 0.6% Gender Breakdown: 52.9% Female, 47.1% Male
Prior to the 2019 election, Ferndown was a single division on Dorset County Council returning two councillors.
2019 result: Con 1,312/1,221, Lib Dem 578/545, UKIP 521/492
Sitting Councillors: Cathy Lugg and Mike Parkes, both Conservative.
See above for background and prediction.
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peterl
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Dorset
Dec 12, 2023 2:31:50 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 12, 2023 2:31:50 GMT
Colehill and Wimborne Minster East
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 7,379 2021 Census Population: 7,285 2011-2021 Population Change: -1.30% Area: 3.01 Square Miles Population Density: 2,451 Per Sqaure Mile Population by Age: Under 18 19.3%, 18-64 52.7%, 65 and Above 28.0% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.1% Largest Non-White Group: Asian 0.8% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Buddhist 0.4% Gender Breakdown: 51.9% Female, 48.1% Male
2019 result: Lib Dem 1,616/1,073, Con 968/771, Green 477, UKIP 319, Lab 145
Sitting councillors: Janet Dover, Maria Angela Roe
Background: Colehill is a parish of a modest size bordering Longham, Ferndown and essentially forms a corridor between Ferndown and Wimborne. It was in the past the home of East Dorset District Council's rather rural offices adapted from an old school and now in the process of redevelopment. Wimborne itself is seeing large scale housing development in various locations, provoking significant local controversy. This ward is also home to Cobham, now part of the American Eaton Group, a significant defense contractor and major local employer. The Wimborne and Colehill area has sometimes voted Conservative during their stronger seasons, but more often favors the Lib Dems. The parish council is non-partisan.
Prediction: In the current climate, a solid Lib Dem hold.
As we get closer to the elections, I will be aiming to complete these profiles within the next couple of months, and if time allows I will then move on to those parish/town councils that are partisanly contested.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Dec 12, 2023 3:03:34 GMT
Wimborne Minster
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 6,752 2021 Census Population: 8,097 2011-2021 Population Change: +18.0% Area: 1.94 Square Miles Population Density: 4,174 Per Sqaure Mile Population by Age: Under 18 19.6%, 18-64 52.7%, 65 and Above 27.6% Percentage Born Abroad: 6.3% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.7% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 1.1% Gender Breakdown: 53.3% Female, 46.7% Male
2019 result: Lib Dems 1,296/1,155, Con 514/509, Lab 192/182
Sitting councillors: Shane Kevin Bartlett, David Morgan
Background: Wimborne is a mid-sized market town at the heart of what was once East Dorset. The town is reasonably affluent largely middle class area and is growing in population rapidly following significant housing development. Wimborne Minster is home to a large and historically significant church that shares the ward's name. Originally a Benedictine abbey founded in 705, its claims to fame including being the burial place of King Alfred's older brother Æthelred. Also home to a small museum and a theater, Wimborne is a minor local cultural center. In common with neighboring Colehill, Wimborne largely votes Lib Dem, although has occasionally been won by the Conservatives. Wimborne Town Council is non-partisan.
Prediction: In the current climate, solid Lib Dem hold.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Dec 12, 2023 3:45:12 GMT
St Leonards and St Ives
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 6,859 2021 Census Population: 7,903 2011-2021 Population Change: +14.0% Area: 9.58 Square Miles Population Density: 825 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 13.7%, 18-64 47.0%, 65 and Above 39.3% Percentage Born Abroad: 7.2% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.7% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Buddhist 0.5% Gender: 51.4% Female, 48.6% Male
2019 result: Con 1,406/1,363, UKIP 604/482, Lib Dem 590, Lab 286
Sitting councillors: Barry Peter Goringe, Ray Bryan
Background: St Leonards and St Ives comprises a long, thin and for the most part sparsely populated area falling between Ferndown to the west and Dorset's border with the New Forest, specifically Ringwood, to the east. To the north is West Moors beyond which lies Verwood. The Ashley Heath estate around the ward's center is home to most of the population. St Leonards and St Ives generally votes Conservative, although UKIP have proved a strong challenger, in particular at the 2013 elections for the old county council when Robin Grey missed out by only 2 votes. The parish council is non-partisan.
Prediction: Unless an independent candidate can provide a strong challenge, St Leonards and St Ives seems a likely Conservative hold.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Dec 12, 2023 4:10:50 GMT
West Moors and Three Legged Cross
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 9,053 2021 Census Population: 8,870 2011-2021 Population Change: -2.0% Area: 4.94 Square Miles Population Density: 1,795 Per Sqaure Mile Population by Age: Under 18 12.7%, 18-64 46.5%, 65 and Above 40.8% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.7% Largest Non-White Group: Asian 0.8% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.5% Gender: 52.8% Female, 47.2% Male
2019 result: Con 1,412/1,323, UKIP 596/447, Lib Dem 541/432
Sitting councillors: David William Shortell, Michael Roy Dyer
Background: West Moors and Three Legged Cross sits between St Leonards and St Ives to the east, Stour and Allen Vale to the west, Verwood to the north and Ferndown to the south. The south western part of the ward houses a number of farms whilst a significant woodland occupies the south eastern area. The northern part of the ward is occupied by an MOD fuel depot. The middle and lower central part of the ward consists largely of modern housing with a reasonably high population density. The ward generally votes Conservative though in common with Ferndown and St Leonards and St Ives has had a history of reasonably high UKIP support. The parish council is non-partisan
Prediction: In common with much of the eastern part of the county, the only likely challenger to the Conservatives would be an independent able to command significant support.
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 12, 2023 9:08:50 GMT
thanks Peter, this is pretty insightful.
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peterl
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Dorset
Dec 12, 2023 23:03:25 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 12, 2023 23:03:25 GMT
Glad they are useful, I think election night is all the more enjoyable for having a little background in advance. Hopefully the first batch, covering the former East Dorset area, will be completed tonight.
Starting with...
Verwood
3 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 13,360 2021 Census Population: 13,709 2011-2021 Population Change: +2.6% Area: 5.13 Square Miles Population Density: 2,673 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 18.6%, 18-64 53.7%, 65 and Above 27.7% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.2% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 0.9% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.4% Gender: 51.3% Female, 48.7% Male
2019 result: Con 2,235/2,083/1,946, Green 736/546, Lib Dem 565, UKIP 499/480, Lab 306/228/227
Sitting councillors: Simon Gibson, Toni Bartley Coombs, Spencer Grant Flower
Background: Verwood is situated at the eastern extreme of Dorset Council, bordering the New Forest to the east, with the Cranborne and Alderholt Ward surrounding it to the north and west, Stour and Allen Vale to the south west and West Moors and Three Legged Cross to the south. It is amongst the larger towns within Dorset Council and one of the few wards with 3 councillors. Whilst Verwood can trace its origins to at least 1288, the present settlement is of largely modern construction. The name deriving from the Norman French meaning Fair Wood, Verwood was in the past a significant producer of pottery. Verwood is a largely Conservative voting area. Spencer Flower, the leader of Dorset Council, is one of the councillors for Verwood. Flower gained some notoriety a few years ago when he was convicted under the Localism Act for failing to disclose interests and as a result has to stand as an independent in 2015. Verwood has a non-partisan town council.
Prediction: Like many wards in this neck of the wards, the only potential challenger to the Conservatives would be an independent who can command sufficient support.
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peterl
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Dorset
Dec 13, 2023 0:00:22 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 13, 2023 0:00:22 GMT
Cranborne and Alderholt
1 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 5,037 2021 Census Population: 5,029 2011-2021 Population Change: -0.20% Area: 28.95 Square Miles Population Density: 174 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 18.6%, 18-64 56.3%, 65 and Above 25.1% Percentage Born Abroad: 4.3% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.0% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.5% Gender: 51.0% Female, 49.0% Male
2019 result: Lib Dem 689, Con 671, Lab 116
Sitting councillor: David Lawrence Tooke
Background: Cranborne and Alderholt is a large, sparsely populated ward bordering Verwood to the south east, Cranborne Chase to the west and south west, the New Forest to the north and east and Stour and Allen Vale to the south. Of the two eponymous settlements, Cranborne takes its name from a 10th century Benedictine abbey and whilst most of the buildings have since been demolished the abbey's church survives. Famous visitors to Cranborne have included King John and King Henry VIII. The village also houses a reproduction of an Iron Age roundhouse operated by Dorset Council as a "living museum". Alderholt is a slightly larger settlement very close to the county boundary with Hampshire but has less to note historically. Politically, the area usually votes Conservative though saw a narrow Lib Dem victory in 2019. The parish councils within the ward are non-partisan.
Prediction: In the current climate, a Lib Dem hold is likely, though this ward is winnable for the Conservatives during their more popular periods.
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peterl
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Dorset
Dec 13, 2023 0:33:56 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 13, 2023 0:33:56 GMT
Cranborne Chase
1 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 5,451 2021 Census Population: 5,180 2011-2021 Population Change: -5.1% Area: 46.19 Square Miles Population Density: 112 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 21.6%, 18-64 58.3%, 65 and Above 20.1% Percentage Born Abroad: 13.5% Largest Non-White Group: Asian 7.2% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Hindu 3.7% 2021 Gender: 53.8% Male, 46.2% Female
2019 result: Con 778, Lab 208, UKIP 200
Sitting councillor: Piers Brown
Background: Cranborne Chase is a rural and very sparsely populated area with most residents living in a spattering of villages dotted around the ward. It is named for an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty partially within the ward that is the home of several Neolithic monuments. The ward is bordered by Cranborne and Alderholt to the north east, the New Forest to the north and north west, Hill Forts & Upper Tarrants to the west, Blandford to the south west, Winterborne to the south and Stour and Allen Vale to the east and south east. For a ward in rural Dorset, there is an unusually high population of people born abroad, mostly of an Asian background. The area generally votes Conservative and all parish councils within the ward are non-partisan. This was one of very wards with no Lib Dem candidate at the 2019 elections.
Prediction: This may be one of the safest Conservative wards in Dorset and a very likely hold even under the current political conditions.
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peterl
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Dorset
Dec 13, 2023 2:34:07 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 13, 2023 2:34:07 GMT
Stour and Allen Vale
1 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 4,868 2021 Census Population 4.963 2011-2021 Population Change: +1.9% Area: 37.98 Square Miles Population Density: 131 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 17.7%, 18-64 54.9%, 65 and Above 27.4% Percentage Born Abroad: 4.2% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 0.8% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.6% Gender: 50.7% Female, 49.3% Male
2019 result: Con 606, Lib Dem 328, Ind 201, UKIP 165, Lab 94
Sitting councillor: Robin David Cook
Background: Stour and Allen Vale is another large and sparsely populated ward, bordering Cranborne Chase to the west, Cranborne and Alderholt to the north, Verwood to the north east, West Moors to the east, and at different points Ferndown, Colehill, Wimborne and Corfe Mullen to the east and south east, with Lychett Matravers and Puddletown falling to the south. Sturminster Marshall, at the southern end, is one of the largest settlements in the ward. The village houses another of Dorset's historic churches dating from the 13th century. The area is typically Conservative voting, though may present a slightly better prospect for the Lib Dems than many wards in the eastern part of Dorset. All parish councils within Stour and Allen Vale are non-partisan.
Prediction: Likely Conservative Hold.
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peterl
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Dorset
Dec 13, 2023 2:53:58 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 13, 2023 2:53:58 GMT
Corfe Mullen
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 10,133 2021 Census Population: 10,374 2011-2021 Population Change: +2.4% Area: 4.74 Square Miles Population Density: 2,188 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 19.6%, 18-64 56.2%, 65 and Above 24.3% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.1% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.2% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.5% Gender: 50.6% Female, 49.4% Male
2019 result: Lib Dem 1,388/1,138, Con 1,292/1,093, Green 374, Lab 222
Sitting councillors: Mike Barron, Paul Ronald Harrison
Background: Corfe Mullen is a small town bordered by Stour and Allen Vale to the north and west, Lychett Matravers to the south west and Poole's Bearwood and Marley and Broadstone wards to the east. The name is derived from the Old English for a cutting and the Old French for a mill. The mill in question was recorded in the Doomsday Book and there has been a settlement on this site going back to the Bronze Age. In more recent times, famous residents of Corfe Mullen include World War Two traitor Lord Haw-Haw. Like Wimborne and Colehill, Corfe Mullen generally leans Lib Dem though sometimes elects Conservative councillors. Whilst one councillor from each party was elected in 2019, Lib Dem Mike Barron defected to the Conservatives in December 2021. Corfe Mullen Town Council is non-partisan.
Prediction: In the current climate I would expect the Lib Dems to win both seats.
That concludes the area formerly known as East Dorset.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Dec 13, 2023 19:58:19 GMT
Now a look at the one partisanly contested minor authority in the eastern part of Dorset
Ferndown Town Council
Ferndown Town Council has 17 councillors representing 7 wards. Historically, the council has been non-partisan, and although many of the councillors have been known Conservative members they did not before 2019 stand under a party label. For some years starting with my own election in 2010 and ending by the 2019 election, the council was a nexus of UKIP support, rising to 6 councillors at the peak. The remaining members of the former UKIP group have since aligned with local residents groups especially in Longham to form the Independent Voice faction, whilst Conservative members now stand under their party name. Independent Voice is mostly concerned with limiting development on greenfield sites along with various ecological initiatives, and has an agenda that is essentially somewhere between a rather animated residents group and the CPRE. Most of the non-aligned councillors either stood down or lost their seats in 2019. The council has increased its responsibilities substantially in recent years and now runs the town's youth center as well as the Barrington Center, a meeting venue that doubles as a theater where the council also meets and has its offices.
Ameysford Ward 3 seats
A modern estate lying north of the town center.
2019 result: Independent Voice 388/350, Con 454/319/252
Elected councillors:
John Baxter Independent Voice - Ex-UKIP and regular candidate for many years most recently in Verwood at the 2019 Dorset Council elections. Councillor since 2011 and former chairman of the Planning Committee. Lives in Longham Ward and known for his interest in vintage cars. At one point in the distant past, ran a hotel in Bournemouth. Lawrence Wilson Independent Voice - Another Ex-UKIP member and a local to the Ameysford Ward, Wilson is a young man who last I heard worked as a courier. He has also stood several times under the UKIP banner including in Ferndown South at the 2019 Dorset Council elections. Cathy Lugg Conservative - Cathy Lugg is a long standing member of the council and a former Mayor. Having previously served on both Dorset County Council and East Dorset District Council, she was elected to Dorset Council for Ferndown North in 2019.
Ferndown Central 3 seats
The town center, mostly modern built with many bungalows.
2019 result: Con 460/454/399, Independent Voice 364/339/312
Elected councillors:
Mike Parkes Conservative - A town councillor since 1997 apparently, Parkes is a fireman by profession. He is a former mayor and was elected to Dorset Council for Ferndown North in 2019. Stuart Fleetham Conservative - Fleetham was a newcomer at the 2019 elections and I know little about him. From his declaration of interests, it seems he may own a local copy shop. Stephen Drinkall Conservative - A former councillor who had stood down and resigned from the council again in the spring of 2021.
May 2021 by election result: Con 474, Independent Voice 428
Elected councillor: Grant Parrott, newcomer to Ferndown politics who I know little about asides from that his address is local. The defeated candidate Lyn Ovens was formerly UKIP councillor for Hampreston and Longham.
Hampreston and Longham 3 seats
Hampreston and Longham consists of a sizable modern estate bordering a more sparsely populated rural area. The rural area in particular was once regarded as a fertile area for UKIP and is home to a militant residents group concerned with greenfield development proposals and the disturbance of HGVs traveling through the area. This group has largely aligned itself with Independent Voice, although the Independent Local Residents councillor is also a leading member.
2019 result: Independent Local Resident 383, Independent Voice 306, Con 233/168, UKIP 193
Elected councillors: Mandy Willis Independent Local Resident - A middle aged woman who works for an insurance company, Willis is a leader in the aforementioned residents group. She resigned from the council in the autumn of 2021. Paul Hanson Graham Independent Voice - A retired photographer and hirer of wedding cars, Graham is an ex-UKIP member and concerned mainly with planning and ecological issues. Whilst he has a fanbase in Longham, he has attracted some controversy although complaints about his conduct were ultimately proven unfounded. Graham is essentially the defacto leader of Independent Voice. Matthew Stickley Conservative - a newcomer to the council and a local, I otherwise know little about Stickley.
2021 by election result: Independent Voice 207, Green 39.
Elected councillor: Stephen Selby, a local farmer.
Links 3 seats
Links Ward runs from the town center through an affluent area of large homes towards a large council estate at Ferndown's eastern extreme.
2019 result: Independent Voice 416, Con 386/317, Ind 311/253
Elected councillors: James Bellamy Independent Voice - A retired GP who stood down almost immediately after his election. Julie Robinson Conservative - A sitting councillor and former mayor, Robinson was elected to Dorset Council for Ferndown South in 2019 Krissy Stamp Conservative - A newcomer with a local address, Stamp is the current mayor.
2019 by election result: Independent Voice 202, Independent Links Ward Resident 112
Elected councillor: Ann Miller lives in nearby West Parley and is a former UKIP member.
Links South 2 seats
Links South is a small modern area with many bungalows bordering Links and Central Wards.
2019 result: Con 268/223, Ind 251/143, Independent Voice 195
Elected councillors: Rod Atkins Conservative - Atkins was elected to Dorset Council for Ferndown South in 2019. Atkins appears to have stood down from the town council during 2023. Terry Cordery Independent - A long serving councillor and retired fireman, Cordery was the only completely unaffiliated councillor elected in 2019.
Co-opted councillor: Matthew White was co-opted in June 2023. He is employed by the local bus company. His proposer and seconder when co-opted might indicate he is or at least is friendly to the Conservatives.
Central North 2 seats
Central North is an affluent area close to the town center. The election for the ward was unopposed in 2019.
Elected councillors: Ian Flay Independent Voice - A sitting councillor originally co-opted and to my knowledge the only pre-2019 councillor to join Independent Voice who was not at any time UKIP. Flay stood down from the council in March 2023. Harry Worth Conservative - A former councillor who spends a lot of time traveling. Worth appears to have stood down at some point since 2019.
Co-opted councillors: George Philips - A Conservative and currently deputy mayor. Philip Leach - Co-opted in June 2023, his proposer and seconder when co-opted might indicate he is or at least is friendly to the Conservatives.
Stapehill 1 seat
Stapehill is a rural area to the west of the town and adjoining Longham. The election for the ward was unopposed in 2019.
Elected councillor:
Nick Wellstead Independent Voice - A builder and fairly long serving councillor first joining the council in a 2012 by election. Wellstead is another ex-UKIP councillor and was the Parliamentary candidate for Poole in 2010.
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peterl
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Dorset
Dec 14, 2023 0:22:33 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 14, 2023 0:22:33 GMT
And now we move onto the Purbeck area.
Lytchett Matravers & Upton
3 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 11,730 2021 Census Population: 12,537 2011-2021 Population Change: +6.7% Area: 16.68 Square Miles Population Density: 752 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 19.5%, 18-64 54.9%, 65 and Above 25.7% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.2% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.2% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.4% Gender: 51.7% Female, 48.3% Male
2019 result: Lib Dem 1,441/1,339/1,092, Con 1,472/1,312/1,235, Green 702, Lab 314
Sitting councillors: Andrew James Starr, Alex Brenton, Bill Pipe.
Background: Lytchett Matravers & Upton is a fairly large and sparsely populated ward bordering Corfe Mullen and Vale of Allen and Stour to the east, Poole's Hamworthy ward to the south east, Wareham to the south, West Purbeck to the south west and Puddletown to the west. The Upton end of the ward is almost an extension of Poole's suburbs. A sizable country park lies a little further out from the conurbation. Lychett Matravers, is the other major settlement in the ward, the name deriving from a Celtic dialect meaning Grey Wood and from the last name of the local feudal lord following the Norman Conquest. The ward is amongst the council's most marginal as between the Lib Dem and Conservatives. Lytchett Minster and Upton Town Council has two Lib Dem members but otherwise comprises of independent councillors.
Prediction: In the current climate, I would expect the Lib Dems to sweep the ward and win all three seats.
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peterl
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Dorset
Dec 14, 2023 1:26:04 GMT
Post by peterl on Dec 14, 2023 1:26:04 GMT
Wareham
2 seat ward.
2011 Census Population: 9,567 2021 Census Population: 9,855 2011-2021 Population Change: +3.0% Area: 23.56 Square Miles Population Density: 418 Per Square Mile Population by Age: Under 18 16.5%, 18-64 51.5%, 65 and Above 32.0% Percentage Born Abroad: 5.3% Largest Non-White Group: Mixed 1.0% Largest Non-Christian Religion: Other 0.4% Gender: 52.4% Female, 47.6% Male
2019 result: Lib Dem 1,837/1,308, Con 965/942, UKIP 431, Lab 365/219
Sitting councillors: Beryl Rita Ezzard, Ryan David Holloway
Background: The Wareham Ward comprises the town of Wareham itself, which lies to the south east, and a significant sparsely populated rural area. The ward borders Lychett Matravers to the east, South East Purbeck to the south and south west and West Purbeck to the west. The town of Wareham is ancient, having been inhabited in some form since the Mesolithic Era. The settlement grew significantly when it was established as one of Alfred the Great's burghs or fortified towns. It has a rich history, playing a role in the Saxon-Viking conflicts, the Norman Conquest, the Civil War and the Monmouth Rebellion. Politically, Wareham leans towards the Lib Dems. Wareham Town Council has a partisan town council that will be the subject of a separate profile.
Prediction: I would expect the Lib Dems to comfortably hold both seats.
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