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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:13:23 GMT
Worthing
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Post by carolus on Dec 12, 2023 21:08:46 GMT
Current council: 24 Lab, 11 Con, 1 Green, 1 LD Up in 2024: 7 Lab, 5 Con, 1 LD
Split wards: Goring - 2 Con, 1 Green. Con defence. 2023: Green gain from Con by 15.6%. Northbrook - 1 Con, 1 Lab. Con defence. 2022: Lab gain from Con by 1.1%. Tarring - 2 Lab, 1 LD. LD defence. 2023: Lab gain from LD by 21.9%.
2023 Candidate totals (-1): 12 Con, 12 Green, 12 Lab, 12 LD, 1 Heritage, 1 Reform UK 2021 Candidate totals: 13 Con, 13 Green, 13 Lab, 13 LD, 1 Libertarian
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 12, 2023 22:43:25 GMT
Another Labour gain in Tarring is certain IMHO, and I can't see the Tories holding out in Northbrook either.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 12, 2023 23:15:55 GMT
Another Labour gain in Tarring is certain IMHO, and I can't see the Tories holding out in Northbrook either. Think Tarring is pretty nailed on. That will be the end of the LibDems in Worthing for the foreseeable future - for the first time since the early seventies there'll be no LibDem councillors in Worthing. Northbrook I'm not terribly sure about, the Cons don't have much else building to defend so they can concentrate there. But Labour favourite certainly. I'll be interested to see if Goring was a one off with a great candidate for the Greens, or if they can do it again, which would be fantastic. I'll have to have a check in the morning and see who the defending Con is.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jan 14, 2024 21:53:41 GMT
Another Labour gain in Tarring is certain IMHO, and I can't see the Tories holding out in Northbrook either. Think Tarring is pretty nailed on. That will be the end of the LibDems in Worthing for the foreseeable future - for the first time since the early seventies there'll be no LibDem councillors in Worthing. Northbrook I'm not terribly sure about, the Cons don't have much else building to defend so they can concentrate there. But Labour favourite certainly. I'll be interested to see if Goring was a one off with a great candidate for the Greens, or if they can do it again, which would be fantastic. I'll have to have a check in the morning and see who the defending Con is. The Greens did pretty well in Goring in 2022 with a different candidate to the winning one in 2023, so I don't see any reason they wouldn't take it. Durrington, Salvington, Offington will probably be Con holds though I doubt any of them are totally safe.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jan 15, 2024 8:50:43 GMT
Durrington is a ward we would have targetted last year had there been an election. As it was, we went for Salvington but although we had our best-ever result in the ward we were a fair distance short. This year I'm sure Durrington will be a Labour target & I don't see it as safe for the Conservatives. They should hold Salvington & Offington but as you suggest not by very large majorities.
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Post by wickofthesouth on Jan 17, 2024 21:43:22 GMT
Another Labour gain in Tarring is certain IMHO, and I can't see the Tories holding out in Northbrook either. Think Tarring is pretty nailed on. That will be the end of the LibDems in Worthing for the foreseeable future - for the first time since the early seventies there'll be no LibDem councillors in Worthing. Northbrook I'm not terribly sure about, the Cons don't have much else building to defend so they can concentrate there. But Labour favourite certainly. I'll be interested to see if Goring was a one off with a great candidate for the Greens, or if they can do it again, which would be fantastic. I'll have to have a check in the morning and see who the defending Con is. The defending Goring Conservative is Steve Waight. Assuming he is allowed to defend, seeing as he now gives his address as in Billingshurst. Unsubstantiated rumour is that he had wanted to stand down ahead of last year's poll but was persuaded to stay on as the Tories didn't want to risk losing two seats to the Greens. Hard to see the Tories hanging on to Goring this year, unless the vote coincides with a general election. It has to be assumed they will also lose Northbrook and Durrington to Labour. Labour will also take Tarring off the Lib Dems. I was genuinely surprised to see Labour fail to make any progress in Salvington last year, despite targeting it. It feels like Salvington and Offington will always be out of reach and that, come May, Labour will finally reach their peak in the town.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jan 17, 2024 21:58:42 GMT
Think Tarring is pretty nailed on. That will be the end of the LibDems in Worthing for the foreseeable future - for the first time since the early seventies there'll be no LibDem councillors in Worthing. Northbrook I'm not terribly sure about, the Cons don't have much else building to defend so they can concentrate there. But Labour favourite certainly. I'll be interested to see if Goring was a one off with a great candidate for the Greens, or if they can do it again, which would be fantastic. I'll have to have a check in the morning and see who the defending Con is. The defending Goring Conservative is Steve Waight. Assuming he is allowed to defend, seeing as he now gives his address as in Billingshurst. Unsubstantiated rumour is that he had wanted to stand down ahead of last year's poll but was persuaded to stay on as the Tories didn't want to risk losing two seats to the Greens. Hard to see the Tories hanging on to Goring this year, unless the vote coincides with a general election. It has to be assumed they will also lose Northbrook and Durrington to Labour. Labour will also take Tarring off the Lib Dems. I was genuinely surprised to see Labour fail to make any progress in Salvington last year, despite targeting it. It feels like Salvington and Offington will always be out of reach and that, come May, Labour will finally reach their peak in the town. Billingshurst, wow! That is a surprise, thanks for the info. Not sure where he's working these days, so maybe that's him definitively out. If he stands I would have him as favourite, as he's so well-known and embedded there, despite not living in the ward for years. Without him, hmmm. Funnily enough, all things being equal I'd give the Greens a better base chance in Salvington than Labour -the southern parts may have begun as council housing, but that's ancient history to most of the residents, and so no base to buidl on. And I have a gut feeling that High Salvington would be more open to the Greens than the 'reds'. But the Greens probably need to focus on Goring, so maybe there's space for Labour. Offington still feels very, very tory to me.
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Post by wickofthesouth on Jan 17, 2024 22:16:34 GMT
The defending Goring Conservative is Steve Waight. Assuming he is allowed to defend, seeing as he now gives his address as in Billingshurst. Unsubstantiated rumour is that he had wanted to stand down ahead of last year's poll but was persuaded to stay on as the Tories didn't want to risk losing two seats to the Greens. Hard to see the Tories hanging on to Goring this year, unless the vote coincides with a general election. It has to be assumed they will also lose Northbrook and Durrington to Labour. Labour will also take Tarring off the Lib Dems. I was genuinely surprised to see Labour fail to make any progress in Salvington last year, despite targeting it. It feels like Salvington and Offington will always be out of reach and that, come May, Labour will finally reach their peak in the town. Billingshurst, wow! That is a surprise, thanks for the info. Not sure where he's working these days, so maybe that's him definitively out. If he stands I would have him as favourite, as he's so well-known and embedded there, despite not living in the ward for years. Without him, hmmm. Funnily enough, all things being equal I'd give the Greens a better base chance in Salvington than Labour -the southern parts may have begun as council housing, but that's ancient history to most of the residents, and so no base to buidl on. And I have a gut feeling that High Salvington would be more open to the Greens than the 'reds'. But the Greens probably need to focus on Goring, so maybe there's space for Labour. Offington still feels very, very tory to me. I agree with that. Salvington as a whole isn't too dissimilar to Goring, with some very, very posh bits and some more mixed areas. If the Greens have got the capacity to go at two this year then Salvington would be the logical choice. Looking forward, Labour will begin to suffer as they become seen more as the party of the establishment, especially once they're in power nationally. I suspect only the Greens (or LibDems if they get their act together) have a hope of wresting Salvington or Offington from the blues now.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jan 17, 2024 22:35:21 GMT
We did make SOME progress in Salvington last year - just not enough.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jan 17, 2024 22:38:51 GMT
Labour are bound to work Salvington & Offington (and indeed Goring), even if purely with a view to the general election. They should be able to glean from canvassing returns whether either of the unbracketed wards is worth putting more effort into in local elections. If they are to gain Worthing West they will have work the whole constituency, not just the party's stronger areas. I know that there has already been some canvassing in the non-Worthing borough areas.
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Post by wickofthesouth on Jan 17, 2024 22:40:38 GMT
Erm.
2022 882 votes 34.5 % 2023 861 votes 35.1 %
That's a very generous definition of progress
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 17, 2024 22:54:26 GMT
Erm. 2022 882 votes 34.5 % 2023 861 votes 35.1 % That's a very generous definition of progress Erm.
Both the majority in terms of votes (469 to 291) and percentage (20 to 11) was cut, but it's certainly true that the swing this time (about 3.3%?) was largely down to the drop in the Tory vote as the percentage rise in the Labour vote was tiny. The swing in 2022 was enormous.
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Post by wickofthesouth on Jan 17, 2024 23:08:38 GMT
Oh I agree, prior to last year there was real progress.
All the other results last year, the Labour consolidations and the Green gain, were easy to predict. I genuinely thought Labour would do better in Salvington, and I mean properly better like either winning or coming very close. I suppose I'm still slightly baffled as to why the Salvington result turned out to be so against the grain.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jan 18, 2024 9:09:11 GMT
Well I canvassed in Salvington & I think the truth of the matter is that High Salvington is just not the sort of territory where Labour can really aspire realistically to repeat their success in other wards. It's really well-to-do & prosperous, and the lower less posh part is hardly poor either. We were pleasantly surprised at the decent levels of support we did find up there, but there are limits to how well Labour can do in places like that. Even in Merseyside there remain places that are just that bit too prosperous to vote Labour in local elections and that still applies to Worthing, and even a couple of remaining wards in Brighton & Hove.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jan 18, 2024 10:22:42 GMT
Well I canvassed in Salvington & I think the truth of the matter is that High Salvington is just not the sort of territory where Labour can really aspire realistically to repeat their success in other wards. It's really well-to-do & prosperous, and the lower less posh part is hardly poor either. We were pleasantly surprised at the decent levels of support we did find up there, but there are limits to how well Labour can do in places like that. Even in Merseyside there remain places that are just that bit too prosperous to vote Labour in local elections and that still applies to Worthing, and even a couple of remaining wards in Brighton & Hove. Yes, I think there's a reasonable floor but a low ceiling for Labour in Salvington. But if you think the lower part is hardly poor, you obviously didn't get into the ex-council housing areas, some of which has gone steeply down hill over the past couple of decades. Mendip and Chiltern are a problem area now, but that was where the LibDems briefly built their winning plan in the late 90s. It would be very interesting however if Labour were able to put a real effort in, to see how they might do here. I would run a campaign based on ratrunning off the A27, the local primary school, and other local facilities like the library and GP access.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jan 18, 2024 20:00:00 GMT
I'm not privy to whether Salvington is being targetted this year. I am fairly sure that quite a bit of work will be put into it once again.
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Post by samtheodoridi on Jan 19, 2024 22:59:33 GMT
I was running the Labour campaign in Salvington last year, though I didn't have total control.
We also didn't target it until February, and only put one leaflet out. With a lot of work, and the right candidate it's winnable for Labour, the same as Offington (and Goring if the Greens hadn't got in before us. Having the General Election in May would undoubtedly help us in Goring over the coming years.)
Something to consider in terms if Salvington is the County Council boundaries.
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 13:24:42 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 3, 2024 12:55:58 GMT
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