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Post by carswellfan on May 4, 2024 0:34:22 GMT
Bonham Gyles was correct to some extent - LD gain in Horley West and Sidlow. But a narrow miss in Reigate. I told him was way over reaching in his original predictions a few months back. Well, I was sort of right in one sense and sensibly going by last year's results. But Lib Dems surpassed all expectations and took Horley West by storm! Do I will partially give way to Sir Bonham Gyles. Wow, what a surprise in Horley pverall. I knew Tory's were in danger there but they were going to lose it to Labour! Sadly, brilliant Tory candidate lost in Horley West. And the Greens really advanced in Horley Central - they will take this in 2026 (next time the ward has an election) just as they did in East in 2022.
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 5, 2024 10:02:37 GMT
I have aggregated the votes across Reigate and Banstead Borough as follows -
Con 11,838 Grn 9,443 Lab 6,450 LD 5,572 Nork Residents 1,591 Tattenham & Preston Residents 1,378 Ind 1,135 Reform 284
The split between constituencies is -
Dorking and Horley Con 2,397 Grn 1,859 LD 1,805 Lab 1,518
East Surrey Grn 1011 Con 635 Lab 533 Reform 284 LD 173
Reigate Con 8,806 Grn 6,573 Lab 4,399 LD 3,594 Nork Res 1,591 T&P Res 1,378 Ind 1,135
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Post by stodge on May 5, 2024 10:23:22 GMT
With only 18 Councillors out of 45, it looks both possible and practical for a non-Conservative administration to be put together - I suspect there will be a lot of messages and conversations over the weekend between the various non-Conservative groups.
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Post by carolus on May 5, 2024 10:31:19 GMT
Bonham Gyles was correct to some extent - LD gain in Horley West and Sidlow. But a narrow miss in Reigate. I told him was way over reaching in his original predictions a few months back. Well, I was sort of right in one sense and sensibly going by last year's results. But Lib Dems surpassed all expectations and took Horley West by storm! Do I will partially give way to Sir Bonham Gyles. Wow, what a surprise in Horley pverall. I knew Tory's were in danger there but they were going to lose it to Labour! Sadly, brilliant Tory candidate lost in Horley West. And the Greens really advanced in Horley Central - they will take this in 2026 (next time the ward has an election) just as they did in East in 2022. This seems most likely, of course, as they've now overtaken Labour. But probably worth noting that this was really a four-way split, with the Conservatives winning on 33% and LD fourth on 19%. Horley Central & South:
Con 781 Green 595 Lab 517 LD 450
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Post by matureleft on May 5, 2024 10:35:29 GMT
With only 18 Councillors out of 45, it looks both possible and practical for a non-Conservative administration to be put together - I suspect there will be a lot of messages and conversations over the weekend between the various non-Conservative groups. Of course it all depends on the local relationships or lack of them. From what one can tell the independents and residents’ association councillors didn’t get a free pass from any party in this election so they wouldn’t necessarily be natural allies of anyone. Few would want to endorse a Tory administration just at the moment though…
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Post by carswellfan on May 7, 2024 7:26:25 GMT
Over the past few years the RA's have shown themselves to be pragmatic to both sides. However, more times than not they have generally backed the Conservative group on matters such as the budget and CTax raises, whilst generally being constructive with their criticisms. On these matters, they seldom side with the Greens.
So on that basis I would be surprised if they were to join in with any hodge podge coalition led by the Greens. I fully expect they will come to some formal alliance with the Conservative group.
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,263
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Post by wallington on May 8, 2024 19:20:00 GMT
Tim Peniston-Bird, gets selected for safe Conservative wards two years running and fails to win them both.
Also, what happened in South Park, the Tory vote from last year just evaporated? Couldn't rely on wanabee MPs like Mario to campaign this year?
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,241
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 8, 2024 19:59:00 GMT
Tim Peniston-Bird, gets selected for safe Conservative wards two years running and fails to win them both. Also, what happened in South Park, the Tory vote from last year just evaporated? Couldn't rely on wanabee MPs like Mario to campaign this year? Would you vote for a man with penis in his name?
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Post by carolus on May 9, 2024 11:33:27 GMT
One thing that I hadn't considered before was that the Horley wards will of course be part of the Mole Valley replacement constituency (Dorking & Horley).
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Post by carswellfan on May 9, 2024 14:19:03 GMT
Tim Peniston-Bird, gets selected for safe Conservative wards two years running and fails to win them both. Also, what happened in South Park, the Tory vote from last year just evaporated? Couldn't rely on wanabee MPs like Mario to campaign this year? They didn't have a candidate until 6 weeks before the election and had to ask one of the out going Cllrs to step in, and whom did the best he could in the circumstances. They didn't target the ward at all for this year, which considering Cllr King's spectacular re-election there last year over the Green is really rather shocking.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,130
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Post by maxque on May 10, 2024 18:49:35 GMT
Third: Grn 5 (+2), Con 4 (-5), LD 2 (+1), Tattenham and Preston Residents 1, Lab 1 (+1), Nork Residents Association 1, Ind 1 (+1) Council: Con 18 (-4), Grn 13 (+2), LD 4 (+1), TPR 3, NRA 3, Lab 2 (+1), Ind 2 %, according to council: Con 30%, Grn 24%, Lab 17%, LD 14%, Res 11%
Green gain over Conservative in: Hooley, Merstham and Netherne (by 376 votes) Horley E and Salfords (by 223 votes)
Liberal Democrat gain over Conservative in: Horley W and Sidlow (by 334 votes)
Independent gain over Conservative in: Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton (confirms defection, by 97 votes)
Labour gain over Conservative in: Redhill W and Wray Common (by 259 votes)
Close holds: Horley C and S (Con hold by 186 votes over Grn) Reigate (Con hold by 83 votes over LD)
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