|
Post by carswellfan on Mar 15, 2024 22:32:01 GMT
The Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton Ward is one of the staunchest Conservative Wards - the Conservative candidate usually polls over 60% and has done so even in 2022 and 2023. It seems Zelanie Cooper left over candidate selection (presumably she was de-selected) and is going to run as an Independent. From what I've heard, the Tories have selected Tim Peniston-Bird (the previous Merstham candidate) as their candidate for Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton, who lives in Meadvale (South of Redhill) So this would have left the ward with two Tory Councillors who don't live in the area, which is probably why Cllr Cooper stood as an Independent It will be a ward to watch in May and could potentially change hands if residents decide they don't want a Tory import from Meadvale She was challenged for the position of reselection in her ward association, and she lost to the gentleman you name. Correct, so we will see what happens in this ward.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,823
|
Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 13:34:35 GMT
|
|
mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 370
|
Post by mrtoad on Apr 8, 2024 13:45:44 GMT
SOPN www.reigate-banstead.gov.uk/downloads/file/7292/rbbc_statement_of_persons_nominated15 wards, 16 vacancies (by-election in Tattenham Corner & Preston ward) Con 16/16 Lab 16/16 LD 16/16 Green 15/16 (1/2 in Tattenham Corner & Preston) Reform UK 2/16 ("Hooley, Merstham & Netherne", South Park & Woodhatch) Nork Residents' Association 1/16 (Nork) Tattenham & Preston Residents 2/16 (2/2 in the ward you would expect) Independent 1/16 ("Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton") The Independent is, as intimated by stodge and Bonham Gyles, incumbent ex-Conservative councillor Zelanie Cooper.
|
|
mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 370
|
Post by mrtoad on Apr 8, 2024 13:46:51 GMT
Sorry to double up your post iain - was only visible once it refreshed after I posted.
|
|
wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,263
|
Post by wallington on Apr 8, 2024 15:24:26 GMT
SOPN www.reigate-banstead.gov.uk/downloads/file/7292/rbbc_statement_of_persons_nominated15 wards, 16 vacancies (by-election in Tattenham Corner & Preston ward) Con 16/16 Lab 16/16 LD 16/16 Green 15/16 (1/2 in Tattenham Corner & Preston) Reform UK 2/16 ("Hooley, Merstham & Netherne", South Park & Woodhatch) Nork Residents' Association 1/16 (Nork) Tattenham & Preston Residents 2/16 (2/2 in the ward you would expect) Independent 1/16 ("Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton") The Independent is, as intimated by stodge and Bonham Gyles, incumbent ex-Conservative councillor Zelanie Cooper. 2 interesting ward choices for Reform to select...
|
|
Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
I be middlin' after being market fresh, thank ye
Posts: 66
|
Post by Bonham Gyles on Apr 8, 2024 15:39:09 GMT
SOPN www.reigate-banstead.gov.uk/downloads/file/7292/rbbc_statement_of_persons_nominated15 wards, 16 vacancies (by-election in Tattenham Corner & Preston ward) Con 16/16 Lab 16/16 LD 16/16 Green 15/16 (1/2 in Tattenham Corner & Preston) Reform UK 2/16 ("Hooley, Merstham & Netherne", South Park & Woodhatch) Nork Residents' Association 1/16 (Nork) Tattenham & Preston Residents 2/16 (2/2 in the ward you would expect) Independent 1/16 ("Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton") The Independent is, as intimated by stodge and Bonham Gyles , incumbent ex-Conservative councillor Zelanie Cooper. 2 interesting ward choices for Reform to select... The Hooley, Merstham and Netherne candidate is Reform UK's PPC for East Surrey but before was a perennial candidate in Horley Central & South
|
|
Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
I be middlin' after being market fresh, thank ye
Posts: 66
|
Post by Bonham Gyles on Apr 8, 2024 15:48:54 GMT
But an observation I've made is the number of candidate seat shuffles by the Tories
Christian Stevens (incumbent for Horley Central & South) is standing in South Park & Woodhatch
Giorgio Buttironi (incumbent for Horley West & Sidlow) is running in Horley Central & South
And as we discovered earlier Taylor O'Driscoll (Tory Cllr in Tandridge for Westway) is running in Horley East & Salfords
|
|
|
Post by carswellfan on Apr 8, 2024 16:09:53 GMT
No drama or Tory panic there, just circumstances: Some wanted to stand aside and some have moved into new areas they wish to stand in.
|
|
|
Post by carswellfan on Apr 8, 2024 16:16:26 GMT
SOPN www.reigate-banstead.gov.uk/downloads/file/7292/rbbc_statement_of_persons_nominated15 wards, 16 vacancies (by-election in Tattenham Corner & Preston ward) Con 16/16 Lab 16/16 LD 16/16 Green 15/16 (1/2 in Tattenham Corner & Preston) Reform UK 2/16 ("Hooley, Merstham & Netherne", South Park & Woodhatch) Nork Residents' Association 1/16 (Nork) Tattenham & Preston Residents 2/16 (2/2 in the ward you would expect) Independent 1/16 ("Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton") The Independent is, as intimated by stodge and Bonham Gyles, incumbent ex-Conservative councillor Zelanie Cooper. 2 interesting ward choices for Reform to select... The Reform candidate for S&PW has long stood here, going right back to his UKIP days. Ever since he almost came close to taking the seat in a 2013 by-election, this continues to eh his ward of choice despite his vote dwindling each time. The Reform Candidate for Merstham, Horley and the Nethern seat previously stood in Horley Central and South the last few years in what was, I presume, an attempt to gain in on the previous UKIP victory and support back in 2014, despite living outside the Borough in Coulsdon. This time he is standing nearer to home. Very basic and crude election literature which is vague and says nothing much about him or his ward pledges.
|
|
|
Post by beacon on Apr 12, 2024 7:36:33 GMT
Nork is where I vote, and the very active and responsive councillor Peter Harp will win comprehensively. He is easily the most visible councillor I have known. A local archaeologist, he regularly gives historical and ecological tours of both Nork Park and Banstead Common. He is widely respected and will win easily.
|
|
Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
I be middlin' after being market fresh, thank ye
Posts: 66
|
Post by Bonham Gyles on Apr 12, 2024 18:25:31 GMT
Nork is where I vote, and the very active and responsive councillor Peter Harp will win comprehensively. He is easily the most visible councillor I have known. A local archaeologist, he regularly gives historical and ecological tours of both Nork Park and Banstead Common. He is widely respected and will win easily. I suspect that the RA will win Nork and both Tattenham Corner & Preston seats quite comfortably
|
|
Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
I be middlin' after being market fresh, thank ye
Posts: 66
|
Post by Bonham Gyles on Apr 21, 2024 17:16:00 GMT
So following the publication of the SOPN, my predictions are...
Banstead Village - Tory hold Chipstead, Kingswood & Woodmansterne - Tory hold Earlswood & Whitebushes - Green hold Hooley, Merstham & Netherne - Green gain from Tory Horley Central & South - LD gain from Tory Horley East & Salfords - Green gain from Tory Horley West & Sidlow - LD gain from Tory Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton - Ind gain from Tory Meadvale & St Johns - LD hold Nork - RA hold Redhill East - Green hold Redhill West & Wray Common - Lab gain from Tory Reigate - LD gain from Tory South Park & Woodhatch - Green hold Tattenham Corner & Preston - (x2) RA hold
Council Composition:
Tories 16 Greens 13 RA 6 Lib Dems 6 Labour 2 Independents 2
|
|
|
Post by carolus on Apr 21, 2024 19:58:21 GMT
So following the publication of the SOPN, my predictions are... Banstead Village - Tory hold Chipstead, Kingswood & Woodmansterne - Tory hold Earlswood & Whitebushes - Green hold Hooley, Merstham & Netherne - Green gain from Tory Horley Central & South - LD gain from Tory Horley East & Salfords - Green gain from Tory Horley West & Sidlow - LD gain from Tory Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton - Ind gain from Tory Meadvale & St Johns - LD hold Nork - RA hold Redhill East - Green hold Redhill West & Wray Common - Lab gain from Tory Reigate - LD gain from Tory South Park & Woodhatch - Green hold Tattenham Corner & Preston - (x2) RA hold Council Composition: Tories 16 Greens 13 RA 6 Lib Dems 6 Labour 2 Independents 2 I make this just a change in your prediction for LKT&W? (And accounting for the second candidate in TC&P). I hope you're right!
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
|
Post by European Lefty on Apr 22, 2024 11:23:23 GMT
Nork is where I vote, and the very active and responsive councillor Peter Harp will win comprehensively. He is easily the most visible councillor I have known. A local archaeologist, he regularly gives historical and ecological tours of both Nork Park and Banstead Common. He is widely respected and will win easily. We need more archaeologists in local government. Heritage has been one of the big casualties of the reckless "developers' charter" approach to planning
|
|
wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,263
|
Post by wallington on Apr 23, 2024 18:29:55 GMT
So following the publication of the SOPN, my predictions are... Banstead Village - Tory hold Chipstead, Kingswood & Woodmansterne - Tory hold Earlswood & Whitebushes - Green hold Hooley, Merstham & Netherne - Green gain from Tory Horley Central & South - LD gain from Tory Horley East & Salfords - Green gain from Tory Horley West & Sidlow - LD gain from Tory Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton - Ind gain from Tory Meadvale & St Johns - LD hold Nork - RA hold Redhill East - Green hold Redhill West & Wray Common - Lab gain from Tory Reigate - LD gain from Tory South Park & Woodhatch - Green hold Tattenham Corner & Preston - (x2) RA hold Council Composition: Tories 16 Greens 13 RA 6 Lib Dems 6 Labour 2 Independents 2 I feel your predictions overestimate The Lib Dems, but we will see. I hear the Green Party are putting more effort into Reigate, I imagine that means things may be looking good in Merstham and South Park
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 24, 2024 19:41:26 GMT
For the purposes of approximating total local election votes across certain constituencies, I have allocated the wards here as follows:
Dorking & Horley: Horley Central and South, Horley East & Salfords, Horley West & Sidlow
East Surrey: Hooley Merstham & Netherne
Reigate: the remaining 11 wards
I shall use the "top vote" for the 2-councillor ward.
|
|
|
Post by carswellfan on May 1, 2024 15:49:06 GMT
Interesting poll from YouGov:
For RBBC it predicts too close to call, with some Conservative gains.
Based on the groundwork, I can only fathom any gains by Cons would be Woodhatch and Southpark (Green) and Meadvale and St John's (Liberal). But even these, in the current climate, seem almost unlikely if not outright impossible.
No other seats have the potential for a Con gain over Green. Cons COULD hold many target seats (Horley East, Merstham) but very likely these will be losses. Also, no chances of a Con gain in the areas North of the Borough where the RA's are firmly rooted. Maybe a gain could be considered if former Con now Independent Cllr Zelaine Cooper is defeated - but others would likely view this as a hold.
The only thing I DO predict is Con losses in Merstham, Horley and Netherne, Redhill West to Labour and and least 1 Horley seat, possibly all 3. (Horley East could go Green, but the Tors have their best chance of holding this due to the candidates efforts. Horley West likely to go Labour this time, the candidate is very confident - Horley Central and South looking dicey, the Tory share of the vote has decreased rapidly since 2021).
|
|
|
Post by beacon on May 3, 2024 7:07:24 GMT
Counting starts at 3.00 this afternoon.
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on May 3, 2024 18:38:11 GMT
|
|
|
Post by carolus on May 3, 2024 21:54:33 GMT
Bonham Gyles was correct to some extent - LD gain in Horley West and Sidlow. But a narrow miss in Reigate.
|
|