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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:08:27 GMT
Reigate and Banstead
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Oct 26, 2023 16:57:58 GMT
Current council: 23 Con, 11 Green, 3 LD, 1 Lab, 3 Nork RA, 3 Tattenhams & Preston RA, 1 Lab, 1 Ind Up in 2024: 9 Con, 3 Green, 1 LD, 1 NRA, 1 TPRA
The Ind in Banstead Village (2026) was elected as Con.
Split wards (2023 result given): Hooley, Merstham & Netherne - 2 Con, 1 Green. Con defend. Green gain from Con by 8.5%. Horley East & Salfords - 2 Green, 1 Con. Con defend. Green gain from Con by 6.8%. Redhill West & Wray Common - 2 Con, 1 Lab. Con defend. Lab gain from Con by 1.2%. South Park & Woodhatch - 2 Green, 1 Con. Green defend. Con hold over Green by 6.4%.
Close wards (2023 result given): Horley West & Sidlow - Con hold by 6.8% over Lab.
2023 Candidate totals: 15 Con, 15 Lab, 15 LD, 14 Green, 1 Reform UK, 1 NRA, 1 TPRA 2021 Candidate totals (+2): 17 Con, 17 Lab, 13 Green, 9 LD, 1 UKIP, 1 NRA, 1 TPRA
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Post by batman on Oct 26, 2023 19:44:30 GMT
wonder what brought about you assessing this particular borough today
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 27, 2023 10:25:53 GMT
wonder what brought about you assessing this particular borough today A big fan of R & B?
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Post by batman on Oct 27, 2023 10:40:18 GMT
Roll over Beethoven, stick to these Reigate & Banstead (outro)
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Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
I be middlin' after being market fresh, thank ye
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Post by Bonham Gyles on Jan 27, 2024 22:39:57 GMT
I am expecting this to go into No Overall Control after this election
The Tories will lose seats due to the national picture and some of the inactive Councillors who haven't done much during their term
The RAAC affecting Reigate Police Station and the Harlequin Theatre, and the County Council's moving of Reigate Priory School to Woodhatch Place will also hurt the Tories during the campaign
My predictions are:
Banstead Village - Tory hold Chipstead, Kingswood & Woodmansterne - Tory hold Earlswood & Whitebushes - Green hold Hooley, Merstham & Netherne - Green gain from Tories Horley Central & South - LD gain from Tories Horley East & Salfords - Green gain from Tories Horley West & Sidlow - LD gain from Tories Lower Kingswood, Tadworth & Walton - Tory hold Meadvale & St Johns - LD hold Nork - RA hold Redhill East - Green hold Redhill West & Wray Common - Lab gain from Tory Reigate - LD gain from Tory South Park & Woodhatch - Green hold Tattenham Corner & Preston - RA hold
Tories 17, Greens 13, LD 6, RA 6, Labour 2, Independent 1
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jan 27, 2024 23:29:55 GMT
Horley Central & South, and Horley West & Sidlow don't look particularly LD-promising on past results - I'd think just gaining Reigate would be pretty good.
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Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
I be middlin' after being market fresh, thank ye
Posts: 66
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Post by Bonham Gyles on Jan 28, 2024 21:20:45 GMT
Horley Central & South, and Horley West & Sidlow don't look particularly LD-promising on past results - I'd think just gaining Reigate would be pretty good. That's fair enough, although in May we have two very active candidates who are very well known in the community including a local community litter pick organiser standing in Horley Central & South and a very active Horley Town Councillor standing in Horley West & Sidlow I do think the Tories will lose all three Horley seats and Reigate because the incumbent Councillors are not very active
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 28, 2024 21:43:47 GMT
Horley Central & South, and Horley West & Sidlow don't look particularly LD-promising on past results - I'd think just gaining Reigate would be pretty good. Bonham Gyles also predicted that we would gain Horley West & Sidlow last year when we came a very distant third, so he has form for getting a bit carried away.
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Post by carswellfan on Feb 11, 2024 11:08:04 GMT
You are way over reaching with your estimation that the Lib Dems will gain Horley Central and South and Horley West and Sidlow.
One only has to look at last year's results to see the Lib Dems did not progress further than a distant third place in HW & S and a distant fourth place in HC&S.
Whilst having a new candidate who is active in the community can be an advantage, the local team have not seemingly made any headway in local campaigning here for their local candidates outside the election cycle, although the parliamentary candidate Chris Coghlan has started to make his pitch over the past year. But as for LD's taking Horley seriously as a RBBC gain - not a sniff. Lib Dems last enjoyed decent support in Horley in the mid '90's when they actually had Cllrs elected into RBBC, and in the noughties still enjoyed strong second place showings in local elections even if they failed to get elected. Since then, almost no presence to speak of.
The real opposition in the Horley seats is of course the Greens: They have done well in HE and will no doubt take the third seat in May, although the Tory candidate (who is the current Cllr for Westway in neighboring TDC) will put up a decent effort. The Greens have also started their campaigning into Horley Central in recent months. But Central and West wards have seen a narrowing of Tory support with Labour pulling in respectable second places - Labour do seem to put some effort into local campaigning but it always seems too little too few. If they actually organise themselves better they could pull it off this year - if they fail to do so then more than likely the Greens will be winning these two seats within a few short years unless the Conservatives can pull themselves around both nationally and locally.
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Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
I be middlin' after being market fresh, thank ye
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Post by Bonham Gyles on Feb 15, 2024 17:17:20 GMT
The Tory Tandridge Councillor for Westway standing for Horley East & Salfords was news to me, but I saw on a Facebook group in Horley that he was running
I understand from friends in Tandridge that he moved to Horley last year and it wasn't news that he was standing down as he posted that he was last year, which is very strange timing in my opinion
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Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
I be middlin' after being market fresh, thank ye
Posts: 66
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Post by Bonham Gyles on Mar 6, 2024 9:17:17 GMT
Incumbent Tory Cllr for Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton appears to be running as an Independent
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 6, 2024 20:33:56 GMT
Incumbent Tory Cllr for Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton appears to be running as an Independent As in he's actually calling himself an independent or just completely avoiding mentioning the c-word? I expect we'll see enough examples of both come May...
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Mar 6, 2024 21:12:00 GMT
Incumbent Tory Cllr for Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton appears to be running as an Independent As in he's actually calling himself an independent or just completely avoiding mentioning the c-word? I expect we'll see enough examples of both come May... Now listed as an Independent on the council website
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Post by carswellfan on Mar 6, 2024 21:24:24 GMT
Incumbent Tory Cllr for Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton appears to be running as an Independent As in he's actually calling himself an independent or just completely avoiding mentioning the c-word? I expect we'll see enough examples of both come May... *Her* Tut tut. Appears to be due to drama with the ward selection committee.
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wallington
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Post by wallington on Mar 7, 2024 9:21:27 GMT
I went down to Merstham last week, Greens obviously very active and more local residents involved with the campaign.
Can't see anything other than a Green Gain this year, as long as they don't get complacent over the next couple months.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Mar 9, 2024 11:46:37 GMT
The council has now slipped into NOC.
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Post by carswellfan on Mar 9, 2024 17:59:25 GMT
I went down to Merstham last week, Greens obviously very active and more local residents involved with the campaign. Can't see anything other than a Green Gain this year, as long as they don't get complacent over the next couple months. Yes, this is extremely likely and not just in Merstham. The local Greens are fired up as candidates and activists and they have been very successfully in getting otherwise Tory voters to vote for them locally, as we see in Merstham and Horley East. It's interesting though: Under Cllr Jonathan Essex, since 2010, they have grown and increased their share of Cllrs (a few years they were reduced, however). That's a success story. But it's interesting how despite these remarkable results have been, Cllr Essex and the Greens (Cllr Essex has stood as Reigate candidate for GE since 2010) have not replicated this into respectable GE results in the constituency. Very odd, because most party's use local support and gain in Cllrs to Thai increase their chances of taking the seat come the GE.
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stodge
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Post by stodge on Mar 9, 2024 20:39:00 GMT
The Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton Ward is one of the staunchest Conservative Wards - the Conservative candidate usually polls over 60% and has done so even in 2022 and 2023.
It seems Zelanie Cooper left over candidate selection (presumably she was de-selected) and is going to run as an Independent.
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Bonham Gyles
Lib Dem
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Post by Bonham Gyles on Mar 14, 2024 19:11:19 GMT
The Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton Ward is one of the staunchest Conservative Wards - the Conservative candidate usually polls over 60% and has done so even in 2022 and 2023. It seems Zelanie Cooper left over candidate selection (presumably she was de-selected) and is going to run as an Independent. From what I've heard, the Tories have selected Tim Peniston-Bird (the previous Merstham candidate) as their candidate for Lower Kingswood, Tadworth and Walton, who lives in Meadvale (South of Redhill) So this would have left the ward with two Tory Councillors who don't live in the area, which is probably why Cllr Cooper stood as an Independent It will be a ward to watch in May and could potentially change hands if residents decide they don't want a Tory import from Meadvale
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