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Dudley
Apr 13, 2024 9:33:18 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 13, 2024 9:33:18 GMT
The main 'former' UKIP presence in Dudley has rejoined UKIP and is a candidate for leader
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Post by andrewp on Apr 13, 2024 14:26:13 GMT
63/72 sitting councillors are standing for re election here
37/41 Conservatives are standing again 22/26 Labour councillors are standing again 1/1 Lib Dem is standing again 3/4 councillors currently sitting as Independents are standing for re election as Independents. 3 ex Tories are all standing for re election, the 1 ex Labour councillor is not standing for re-election
Alan Taylor ( Con) , Halesowen South is standing for re-election at age 89 and after 45 years as a councillor.
5 Tories are switching wards- 3 have moved to more promising wards- Bex Collins ( from Brockmoor & Pensnett to Hayley Green & Cradley South), Damian Corfield ( Netherton, Woodside & St Andrew’s to Sedgley) and Alan Hopwood ( Wollaston & Stourbridge Town to Norton) . 2 have moved to less promising wards - Matt Dudley ( Sedgley to Wollaston & Stourbridge Town) and Laura Taylor-Childs ( Norton to Halesowen North)
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 23, 2024 8:33:50 GMT
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 28, 2024 9:46:16 GMT
He's been no closer to Dudley than a first class train carriage passing through Dudley Port has he?
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 28, 2024 12:20:55 GMT
OK, as promised.
Bear in mind I know Stourbridge and the areas around it much better than Dudley proper. I've got some knowledge of Halesowen and Kingswinford as well. I've been over about five times this year and I've got a general feeling.
1. People have had enough of the Conservative government, they want them out. Yes, they are willing to vote Labour but with no enthusiasm. Reform aren't getting mentioned much but I've not really been in places except a brief visit to Netherton (guess where) that might be Reform inclined. 2. They are less pissed off with the council and they are much more wary of a Labour council but there is a general awareness that the Tory group isn't in a happy place at the moment and could do with a break. 3. Most people who were voting in the Mayoral seemed to be backing Andy Street even amongst the more Labour parts of my family. Aunt Paddy won't but she'd vote for a Donkey with a Red Rosette although she is critical of some Labour candidates.
Amblecote - currently 3 Con - will probably stay 3 Con, might be 2 Con 1 Lab. I'd take a guess that Pete Lee will top the poll. Only person who mentioned an Indo was for Max Lowe - who was "a saft lad" - this is not good.
Belle Vale - currently 3 Con - Labour went backwards here, my spy in the ward tells me they are doing a fair bit. All three sitting councillors restanding for the Tories. Staying 3 Con.
Brierley Hill & Wordsley S - currently 2 Con, 1 Lab - No Reform here helps the Tories probably, LibDems may take a small number of votes from Lab about Gaza, TUSC will just add to the hilarity. All three sitting councillors restanding, I think this will stay split, could be 2 Con, 1 Lab or 2 Lab, 1 Con, more likely the latter
Brockmoor & Pensnett - currently 2 Lab, 1 Con - sitting Con councillor standing down, sitting Labour councillors restanding former Black Country Party candidate standing for third Labour seat. 3 Lab
Castle & Priory - currently 3 Lab, 2 restanding, 1 standing down. Tories can come close here but not in the current climate and the weak Labour councillor is standing down. 3 Lab
Coseley - currently 3 Lab, 2 restanding, 1 standing down. pretty safe for Labour in most years but watch out for the Green vote rising again. 3 Lab
Cradley North & Wollescote - currently 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LDm (after by-election) - all three restanding, 2023 Green standing as LDm, Lab running their by-election candidate plus a candidate from the Lye Asian community, TUSC will be looking to beat their score of 5 in the by-election. Could be anything from 3 Lab to 3 LDm, most likely I think is 2 LDm, 1 Lab.
Gornal - currently 3 Con - all three restanding, two good Inds here, one of which Anne Millward came second in 2024 (long term former Con councillor), Reform standing doesn't help the Tories, no LDm or Grn probably helps Labour but they'd need a LOT of help here. Could be anything from 1 Con 2 Ind to 3 Con, my guess is 2 Con, 1 Ind (Millward)
Halesowen North - currently 2 Lab, 1 Con - all three restanding, not sure if trying to wedge in Helen Betts-Patel is a good idea for Labour here, but the margin was enough last time to say that it should be 3 Lab.
Halesowen South - currently 3 Con, 2 restanding, new Con candidate stood in Halesowen North last time. Staying 3 Con
Hayley Green & Cradley South - currently 3 Con, 2 restanding. There's a small chance here for Labour I think to get one seat on the basis that Tony Barnsley has been going at it for a while now and has built up a bit of a personal vote. Most likely 3 Con but possibly 2 Con 1 Lab.
Kingswinford N & Wall Heath - currently 3 Con, all three restanding, former Con councillor Shas Saleem running a slate of three Indos, not entirely sure what affect this will have and my last relatives in this ward have moved away but I notice a well known name as one of the proposers. But Labour are a long way behind here and I don't think a 2012 split is on. 3 Con.
Kingswinford S - currently elected as 3 Con, 2 restanding as Con, 1 as an Ind and part of an Ind slate of 3. Note that none of the Tories live in the ward This one is likely to be a mess and there are a wide range of options ranging from 3 Ind through 3 Lab to 3 Con. I think it could be 1 Ind, 1 Lab, 1 Con - that will be fun.
Lye & Stourbridge North - currently 2 Lab, 1 Con - all three restanding. Con standing with two Asian running mates which does no harm in this ward (unlike others) and could help attract alienated Lab votes over Gaza. I think its 3 Lab.
Netherton & Holly Hall - now this namechange I approve of - currently 2 Lab, 1 Con - 1 Lab (Zada) standing down, 1 Con moving to Sedgley, I think the Tories know the game is up here. 3 Lab
Norton - 3 Con - 2 restanding, one chicken run from Wollaston. 3 Con but watch the Green vote here.
Pedmore & Stourbridge East - 3 Con - 2 restanding, new Con candidate from Gornal, they'll have the vapours down Redlake Road. Doesn't really matter, will elect Donkey with Blue Rosette. 3 Con.
Quarry Bank & Dudley Wood - 2 Lab 1 Con - 1 Lab and 1 Con restanding. Not sure (address in Wyre Forest) will help one of the new Tory candidates especially in Quarry Bonk where they have parochial as an art form. 3 Lab
Sedgley - elected as 3 Con, 1 Con restanding, 1 Con restanding as Ind, Labour bench uninspiring, Ind councillor very strong but his running mate, well no, Con running a councillor from Netherton. It's all fun and games. Could 2 Con 1 Ind (Keasey) could be 3 Con, I suspect the former.
St James - elected 2 Con, 1 Lab, by-elections made it 2 Lab 1 Con - Reform throwing their oar in here won't help the Tories nor will one of their candidates being (address in Birmingham). Probably 3 Lab, but well, it might be 2 Lab 1 Con, I don't see it, but it's not totally out of the question.
St Thomas - elected 3 Lab, there have been candidate shenanigans of course there fucking have, 2 Lab restanding, slate of Indos against Gaza not against their relatives not being selected. 3 Lab.
Upper Gornal & Woodsetton - elected 2 Lab, 1 Con - Con standing down, 1 Lab standing down, new Con slate all members of one family (nothing new for Upper Gornal), Reform stickig their nose in, Labour making a very brave candidate selection. 3 Lab, probably, maybe 2 Lab 1 Con but can't see it.
Wollaston & Stourbridge Town - elected 2 Lab, 1 Con - Con moving to another ward, former Con Councillor standing again along with a Sedgley councillor. Fairly vigorous Lab campaign according to relatives - well, there are a small horde of Tromans to rope in. Feels like 3 Lab.
Wordsley North - elected 3 Con - all three restanding - very posh Labour slate address wise. Kerry Lewis will be fine, the Duchess of Swindon should be fine, Matt Rogers might be shaky, Probably 3 Con, possibly 2 Con 1 Lab, maybe but unlikely 1 Con 2 Lab.
All in all, I don't think there's a possible Tory majority here, there is a possible Labour majority and its probably the most likely outcome, but there are opportunities for a hung council and it if there is a Lab majority, it won't be a big one. LAB 37, CON 30, IND 3, LDM 2.
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Dudley
Apr 28, 2024 13:21:56 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrewp on Apr 28, 2024 13:21:56 GMT
I wonder who Anne Millward would support if she ( + maybe an associate) wins and holds the balance of power. Not impossible
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,557
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Dudley
Apr 28, 2024 13:38:29 GMT
Post by iang on Apr 28, 2024 13:38:29 GMT
FWIW, my understanding is that the Lib Dems are confident of building on the by-election win in C&W
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 10:45:43 GMT
via mobile
Post by iainbhx on May 3, 2024 10:45:43 GMT
Turnouts are done for the Dudley all ups - 32% up 5% on last year. Might be a while before we get any results.
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 13:04:53 GMT
via mobile
Post by iainbhx on May 3, 2024 13:04:53 GMT
Labour have won all three in Brockmoor & Pensnett, Coseley, St James‘s and finally Upper Gornal & Woodsettom.
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 13:17:22 GMT
via mobile
Post by iainbhx on May 3, 2024 13:17:22 GMT
A CON GAIN in Castle and Priory. LAB, CON then LAB - new candidate Donna Flurry-Haddock is the Labour loser.
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 13:20:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by iainbhx on May 3, 2024 13:20:36 GMT
3 CON in Kingswinford South, Luke Johnson only beating Labour by 68.
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 13:21:43 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 13:21:43 GMT
A CON GAIN in Castle and Priory. LAB, CON then LAB - new candidate Donna Flurry-Haddock is the Labour loser. That messes up the calculations..
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 13:31:01 GMT
via mobile
Post by iainbhx on May 3, 2024 13:31:01 GMT
GORNAL 2 CON, 1 LAB! IND Millward comes fourth.
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 13:39:59 GMT
via mobile
Post by iainbhx on May 3, 2024 13:39:59 GMT
ST THOMAS‘S - 3 LAB - Gaza Indos in 4th, 5th and 6th, Tories nipping at their heels.
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 14:20:10 GMT
via mobile
Post by iainbhx on May 3, 2024 14:20:10 GMT
KINGSWINFORD N & WALL HEATH - 3 CON - Ind Shaz Saleem a former Tory councillor here is a good 4th.
WORDSLEY NORTH - 2 CON, 1 LAB - Matt Rogers loses to Labour by 5 votes. As predicted Kerry Lewis well out ahead of the other two.
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 14:31:59 GMT
via mobile
Post by iainbhx on May 3, 2024 14:31:59 GMT
NETHERTON & HOLLY HALL - 3 LAB SEDGLEY - 2 CON., 1 IND - IND Keasey wins by 67 for the third slot.
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Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2024 17:47:26 GMT
I make it Labour 32 Conservative 34 Independent 1 with Cradley & Wollescote and Wollaston & Stourbridge to come. Both marginal wards so anything could still happen.
Perhaps I should say that the former is the only ward where the Liberal Democrats are in contention.
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Dudley
May 3, 2024 17:57:54 GMT
Post by eastmidlandsright on May 3, 2024 17:57:54 GMT
I make it Labour 32 Conservative 34 Independent 1 with Cradley & Wollescote and Wollaston & Stourbridge to come. Both marginal wards so anything could still happen Nearly right Con: 34 Lab: 31 Ind: 1 Yet to declare: 6
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Post by eastmidlandsright on May 3, 2024 18:30:18 GMT
Final numbers
Con: 34 Lab: 34 LD: 3 Ind: 1
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Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2024 18:31:39 GMT
Wollaston & Stourbridge in for Labour. Now 34 all, with one eccentric ward to come. Funny if the council ends up hung despite being 2 party dominated.
Post crossed with the above. Liberal Democrats take all 3 seats in the final ward, and hold the balance of power.
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