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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 27, 2023 3:00:30 GMT
I was out canvassing last week in a largely Pakistani Muslim area with a smaller Bangladeshi Muslim community. I would say there wasn't a huge backlash. I understand from comrades that Friday prayers was a difficult experience but I believe with reassurances having being made it's calmed things down. I have been phoning members for volunteers this weekend and there were two or three unhappy people but that's it Thanks for your insights, mattbewilson . We may get some sense of how Labour is doing in London with the Hackney mayoral by-election. Not a huge amount of Muslims resident in Hackney, so I don't think there will be any significant impact on the result.
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weld
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Post by weld on Oct 27, 2023 3:05:49 GMT
Thanks for your insights, mattbewilson . We may get some sense of how Labour is doing in London with the Hackney mayoral by-election. Not a huge amount of Muslims resident in Hackney, so I don't think there will be any significant impact on the result. The London Borough of Hackney is about 13% Muslim.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 27, 2023 3:29:59 GMT
Not a huge amount of Muslims resident in Hackney, so I don't think there will be any significant impact on the result. The London Borough of Hackney is about 13% Muslim. You need a significantly larger bloc than that for any sort of noticeable effect, especially in a functionally pointless mayoral election. Even Westminster is higher at approx. 20% Muslim, likely due to the significant Arab population around Edgware Road. Think more TH (39% Muslim), Newham (34.8%), Redbridge (31.3% Muslim), plus Barking and Dagenham (24.8% - this is a borderline consideration, because the borough is so monolithically Labour).
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weld
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Post by weld on Oct 27, 2023 4:26:29 GMT
The London Borough of Hackney is about 13% Muslim. You need a significantly larger bloc than that for any sort of noticeable effect, especially in a functionally pointless mayoral election. Even Westminster is higher at approx. 20% Muslim, likely due to the significant Arab population around Edgware Road. Think more TH (39% Muslim), Newham (34.8%), Redbridge (31.3% Muslim), plus Barking and Dagenham (24.8% - this is a borderline consideration, because the borough is so monolithically Labour). I had no idea that Barking and Dagenham was 24.8% Muslim. Still, geography determines destiny and Barking and Dagenham borders Newham and Redbridge.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 27, 2023 4:48:37 GMT
You need a significantly larger bloc than that for any sort of noticeable effect, especially in a functionally pointless mayoral election. Even Westminster is higher at approx. 20% Muslim, likely due to the significant Arab population around Edgware Road. Think more TH (39% Muslim), Newham (34.8%), Redbridge (31.3% Muslim), plus Barking and Dagenham (24.8% - this is a borderline consideration, because the borough is so monolithically Labour). I had no idea that Barking and Dagenham was 24.8% Muslim. Still, geography determines destiny and Barking and Dagenham borders Newham and Redbridge. It's mostly because the remaining cheaper housing in East London is mostly concentrated in that borough, and the massive Barking Riverside housing development (although it's in a horrid location not far off Gallions Reach sewage plant) is bringing a lot more reasonably priced (for London) housing to the market. Havering is mostly still quite middle class with house prices to match, the environment is a bit hostile for Muslims further out in South Essex (except for Thurrock, which is changing a bit faster demographically) and the post-Olympic/Crossrail balloon in prices in the traditional East End and Newham means Muslim families generally have to search further out for a house they can afford, especially given the high birth rate.
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Post by weld on Oct 27, 2023 5:40:39 GMT
I'm feeling more confident that the Tories can win Brent & Harrow, Ealing & Hillingdon and keep South West London now if Labour is losing Muslim support. I'm unsure about West Central, which I previously thought would go to Labour as they won Westminster, and the Conservatives only got 48.7% in RBKC in 2022.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 27, 2023 5:52:54 GMT
I'm feeling more confident that the Tories can win Brent & Harrow, Ealing & Hillingdon and keep South West London now if Labour is losing Muslim support. I'm unsure about West Central, which I previously thought would go to Labour as they won Westminster, and the Conservatives only got 48.7% in RBKC in 2022. Brent and Harrow is more Hindu than Muslim. And Ealing + Hillingdon has a lot of Sikhs and Hindus too.
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Post by weld on Oct 27, 2023 6:05:08 GMT
I'm feeling more confident that the Tories can win Brent & Harrow, Ealing & Hillingdon and keep South West London now if Labour is losing Muslim support. I'm unsure about West Central, which I previously thought would go to Labour as they won Westminster, and the Conservatives only got 48.7% in RBKC in 2022. Brent and Harrow is more Hindu than Muslim. And Ealing + Hillingdon has a lot of Sikhs and Hindus too. Sunak effect + Braverman effect + Patel effect + possible ULEZ effect = 2 x Conservative gain from Labour.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 27, 2023 6:18:32 GMT
Brent and Harrow is more Hindu than Muslim. And Ealing + Hillingdon has a lot of Sikhs and Hindus too. Sunak effect + Braverman effect + Patel effect + possible ULEZ effect = 2 x Conservative gain from Labour. Only Sunak is mildly popular in British Asian communities, and mostly only particularly among Gujaratis. ULEZ is more of a long term issue in South East London in areas like Bromley.
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Post by weld on Oct 27, 2023 6:40:57 GMT
Sunak effect + Braverman effect + Patel effect + possible ULEZ effect = 2 x Conservative gain from Labour. Only Sunak is mildly popular in British Asian communities, and mostly only particularly among Gujaratis. ULEZ is more of a long term issue in South East London in areas like Bromley. Interesting. I'd have thought Suella Braverman would resonate with Ugandan Asians given her background cf. the likes of Priti Patel and Alok Sharma.
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Post by batman on Oct 27, 2023 7:00:56 GMT
It's asking a lot for the Tories to win Ealing & Hillingdon at the moment. Sure there are good Tory areas, but Labour will be way ahead in 4 of the 6 constituencies, Southall, E C & A, Ealing North & Hayes and Harlington, and the Tories in only 2 assuming they remain ahead in U & SR which I'm sure they will. Brent & Harrow might actually be more doable but there is a formidable Labour lead in Brent Central & Labour should still be ahead in Harrow West, Brent North & the Brent part of Hampstead & Kilburn as well, even if not by as much as the party might like. Braverman has antecedents in the constituency, her mother was a Tory councillor in Harrow. It's a question of whether the Tories can totally counteract what is still likely to be a very large national deficit, and an even larger one in terms of London GE voting intentions, to the extent necessary actually to gain GLA constituencies from Labour, and whether Khan's declining popularity will fully transfer to GLA seats. Voters in London have shown in the past that they're more than capable of ticket-splitting between Mayoral & GLA elections.
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Post by batman on Oct 27, 2023 7:01:23 GMT
Remember, the last GLA elections took place in 2021, when Labour was doing far, far worse in the polls than we are now.
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Post by batman on Oct 27, 2023 7:07:22 GMT
Personally I tend to think the Tories will lose SW London too. Their vote has collapsed to a very large degree in Richmond-upon-Thames, and it will be poor in much of Kingston-upon-Thames too although rather less so in the Chessington & Tolworth areas perhaps. It's a question of whether the LDs or Labour beat them - quite possibly both. We are certainly going to be working the constituency as it now requires a modest swing, albeit from 3rd place, for us to take it for the first time.
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 27, 2023 7:29:32 GMT
Only Sunak is mildly popular in British Asian communities, and mostly only particularly among Gujaratis. ULEZ is more of a long term issue in South East London in areas like Bromley. Interesting. I'd have thought Suella Braverman would resonate with Ugandan Asians given her background cf. the likes of Priti Patel and Alok Sharma. As a Redingensian who has met Sharma several times, he is a fully integrated Reading boy, born and bred - ethnic motivations don't remotely play into why he is elected. Braverman polarises the community, she might garner a very small percentage extra of support for the Tories from the older generations, but there's a lot of discontent with her and her policies in the younger generations (who are frequently Londoners with very liberal London political views.) Same with Patel
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Post by weld on Oct 27, 2023 7:39:20 GMT
Interesting. I'd have thought Suella Braverman would resonate with Ugandan Asians given her background cf. the likes of Priti Patel and Alok Sharma. Braverman polarises the community, she might garner a very small percentage extra of support for the Tories from the older generations, but there's a lot of discontent with her and her policies in the younger generations (who are frequently Londoners with very liberal London political views.) Same with Patel I can believe that.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 27, 2023 7:43:19 GMT
It's asking a lot for the Tories to win Ealing & Hillingdon at the moment. Sure there are good Tory areas, but Labour will be way ahead in 4 of the 6 constituencies, Southall, E C & A, Ealing North & Hayes and Harlington, and the Tories in only 2 assuming they remain ahead in U & SR which I'm sure they will. Brent & Harrow might actually be more doable but there is a formidable Labour lead in Brent Central & Labour should still be ahead in Harrow West, Brent North & the Brent part of Hampstead & Kilburn as well, even if not by as much as the party might like. Braverman has antecedents in the constituency, her mother was a Tory councillor in Harrow. It's a question of whether the Tories can totally counteract what is still likely to be a very large national deficit, and an even larger one in terms of London GE voting intentions, to the extent necessary actually to gain GLA constituencies from Labour, and whether Khan's declining popularity will fully transfer to GLA seats. Voters in London have shown in the past that they're more than capable of ticket-splitting between Mayoral & GLA elections. Uma Fernandes was a Brent councillor
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Post by weld on Oct 27, 2023 7:50:39 GMT
It's asking a lot for the Tories to win Ealing & Hillingdon at the moment. Sure there are good Tory areas, but Labour will be way ahead in 4 of the 6 constituencies, Southall, E C & A, Ealing North & Hayes and Harlington, and the Tories in only 2 assuming they remain ahead in U & SR which I'm sure they will. Brent & Harrow might actually be more doable but there is a formidable Labour lead in Brent Central & Labour should still be ahead in Harrow West, Brent North & the Brent part of Hampstead & Kilburn as well, even if not by as much as the party might like. Braverman has antecedents in the constituency, her mother was a Tory councillor in Harrow. It's a question of whether the Tories can totally counteract what is still likely to be a very large national deficit, and an even larger one in terms of London GE voting intentions, to the extent necessary actually to gain GLA constituencies from Labour, and whether Khan's declining popularity will fully transfer to GLA seats. Voters in London have shown in the past that they're more than capable of ticket-splitting between Mayoral & GLA elections. Uma Fernandes was a Brent councillor And fought Brent East in the 2003 by-election, IIRC.
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Post by batman on Oct 27, 2023 7:56:45 GMT
It's asking a lot for the Tories to win Ealing & Hillingdon at the moment. Sure there are good Tory areas, but Labour will be way ahead in 4 of the 6 constituencies, Southall, E C & A, Ealing North & Hayes and Harlington, and the Tories in only 2 assuming they remain ahead in U & SR which I'm sure they will. Brent & Harrow might actually be more doable but there is a formidable Labour lead in Brent Central & Labour should still be ahead in Harrow West, Brent North & the Brent part of Hampstead & Kilburn as well, even if not by as much as the party might like. Braverman has antecedents in the constituency, her mother was a Tory councillor in Harrow. It's a question of whether the Tories can totally counteract what is still likely to be a very large national deficit, and an even larger one in terms of London GE voting intentions, to the extent necessary actually to gain GLA constituencies from Labour, and whether Khan's declining popularity will fully transfer to GLA seats. Voters in London have shown in the past that they're more than capable of ticket-splitting between Mayoral & GLA elections. Uma Fernandes was a Brent councillor beg pardon
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Post by batman on Oct 27, 2023 7:58:24 GMT
Uma Fernandes was a Brent councillor And fought Brent East in the 2003 by-election, IIRC. that is correct. My friend Robert Evans was the Labour runner-up & it is a matter of great regret to me I didn't get over there. I have however canvassed for him several times since, every time succesfully (in Stanwell)
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Post by batman on Oct 27, 2023 8:00:23 GMT
Interesting what you say about Priti Patel DOTW. We have a Ugandan Asian friend locally and although she is quite right-wing & has definitely voted Conservative many times she really intensely dislikes Priti Patel. I don't think she will vote Conservative next time, not that it matters much in our constituency which will be an easy LD hold.
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