weld
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Post by weld on Jul 28, 2023 10:11:12 GMT
Now that ULEZ expansion is going ahead on August 29, I thought it'd be interesting to think about the GLA again.
Barnet & Camden
The Tories held this one from 2000 (winning by a squeaker) until 2012. Ex-MP Andrew Dismore won it for the red team, and it's been close-ish since but the Labour lead in Camden easily offsets the likely Tory advantage in Barnet. Plus, Labour's improved relationship with a certain religious group in these parts will do them no harm, although Barnet still votes for Susan Hall in the Mayoral, I'd guess. Labour probably holds that despite ULEZ.
Brent & Harrow
While Hindu voters have understandably warmed to Sunak, the Tories would need a solid showing in Brent North IMO to have a chance of winning this seat off Labour. These areas did swing to the Tories in May 2022. Expect this to be closer than Barnet & Camden.
Ealing & Hillingdon
Even with the Uxbridge result, Labour are favourites here, but Hillingdon is a pretty car-dependant part of the world, so I think this one is genuinely too close to call, and if the Tories get their vote out in Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner as well as Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and can blunt Labour's numerical lead in Ealing either by winning minority voters or prompting disaffected lefties to sit this one out, they could win. Can Sunak appeal to Sikh and Muslim communities in the same way he appeals to Hindus?
The other thing is that the Tories can't assume they hold all their defences - West Central and South West were VERY close in 2021. ULEZ may save the Tories in South West.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 28, 2023 10:38:13 GMT
Of course, one electoral unknowable amongst several is what negative effect ULEZ might still have once it is actually up and running (which the mayor now intends it will be by next May) Whilst it is still likely to be unpopular in outer London, the effect may be lessened if quite a few realise they don't have to pay it after all?
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2023 14:00:06 GMT
I don't expect ULEZ extension to have much impact in London SW except in a very small minority of wards e.g. Hampton North, Chessington S, not many others.
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Post by BossMan on Jul 28, 2023 16:45:00 GMT
Just an FYI that I will be moving this to a new sub-board for 2024 in the next few days.
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It used to be Vote 2006
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Post by It used to be Vote 2006 on Aug 15, 2023 13:27:32 GMT
Conservative candidate for Brent and Harrow is Stefan Voloseniuc. Anglo-Romanian businessman; stood in the Barnhill ward byelection in Brent in January 2020. Genuine question. Does anyone know if Stefan Voloseniuc is descended from one of the established ethnic minorities of Romania? Had I read his surname in isolation I would have guessed it was Slavic rather than Romanian (admittedly my knowledge here is rather limited). A brief online search suggests it might be of Ukrainian origin.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 16, 2023 19:23:05 GMT
Conservative candidate for Brent and Harrow is Stefan Voloseniuc. Anglo-Romanian businessman; stood in the Barnhill ward byelection in Brent in January 2020. Genuine question. Does anyone know if Stefan Voloseniuc is descended from one of the established ethnic minorities of Romania? Had I read his surname in isolation I would have guessed it was Slavic rather than Romanian (admittedly my knowledge here is rather limited). A brief online search suggests it might be of Ukrainian origin.
There are several established Slavic minorities in Romania, including Ukrainians.
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It used to be Vote 2006
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Post by It used to be Vote 2006 on Aug 17, 2023 10:00:59 GMT
Indeed.
I had thought that if he is from one of these minorities, he might have contested one of the seats reserved for them - but those are in the Chamber of Deputies rather than the Senate. Both chambers include seats for Romanians abroad, so it may have been one of those instead.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 17, 2023 11:39:20 GMT
Indeed. I had thought that if he is from one of these minorities, he might have contested one of the seats reserved for them - but those are in the Chamber of Deputies rather than the Senate. Both chambers include seats for Romanians abroad, so it may have been one of those instead. Your contributions are generally worthwhile, why don't you register on here?
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weld
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Post by weld on Oct 16, 2023 6:33:15 GMT
Taj Ali raises a fascinating question: x.com/Taj_Ali1/status/1713624061438276005?s=20. "I'd be interested to see a poll on British Muslim voting intentions. After the past few days, I believe the Labour Party's Muslim vote has completely collapsed." How could all that's going on in the Middle East impact the London elections? Could Sadiq Khan lose due to apathy and/or voter fatigue in some quarters? I'm not racist, but I've often thought t-shirts saying 'do I look like a Sadiq Aman Khan fan?' would sell well, and I say that as someone who'll vote for the guy. If, as Ali contends, "the Labour Party's Muslim vote has completely collapsed", who do they vote for? Rahman-esque candidates? The Greens? Or stay home?
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Post by rcronald on Oct 16, 2023 8:37:44 GMT
Taj Ali raises a fascinating question: x.com/Taj_Ali1/status/1713624061438276005?s=20. "I'd be interested to see a poll on British Muslim voting intentions. After the past few days, I believe the Labour Party's Muslim vote has completely collapsed." How could all that's going on in the Middle East impact the London elections? Could Sadiq Khan lose due to apathy and/or voter fatigue in some quarters? I'm not racist, but I've often thought t-shirts saying 'do I look like a Sadiq Aman Khan fan?' would sell well, and I say that as someone who'll vote for the guy. If, as Ali contends, "the Labour Party's Muslim vote has completely collapsed", who do they vote for? Rahman-esque candidates? The Greens? Or stay home? The only Green they are going to vote for is Islamic Green (aka, not the British one).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 16, 2023 9:18:00 GMT
Taj Ali raises a fascinating question: x.com/Taj_Ali1/status/1713624061438276005?s=20. "I'd be interested to see a poll on British Muslim voting intentions. After the past few days, I believe the Labour Party's Muslim vote has completely collapsed." How could all that's going on in the Middle East impact the London elections? Could Sadiq Khan lose due to apathy and/or voter fatigue in some quarters? I'm not racist, but I've often thought t-shirts saying 'do I look like a Sadiq Aman Khan fan?' would sell well, and I say that as someone who'll vote for the guy. If, as Ali contends, "the Labour Party's Muslim vote has completely collapsed", who do they vote for? Rahman-esque candidates? The Greens? Or stay home? The only Green they are going to vote for is Islamic Green (aka, not the British one). I think in quite a few European countries the Green parties do well amongst Islamist voters and I could see it here. Shahrar Ali may not be flavour of the month in the GPEW these days, but there's a place for that element - and the party tends to include the nuttiest of the far left pro-Islmasit types - look at Maggie Chapman (I know its technically a different party but..). The Greens have taken on many more of the Corbynite wing of the Labour party and will take more and as the Palestime flag waving at Labour conference a few years ago shows, no issue is more important for that element. The Greens and Islamists share an instinctive hostility to personal freedom and to 'Western' values more generally. Sure they'll have wildly different views on things like homosexual rights, but the far left have never had a problem with that kind of cognitive dissonance
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 16, 2023 9:31:32 GMT
Tbf there is also a sort of precedent with Respect before it all - predictably - blew up.
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 16, 2023 9:34:52 GMT
Tbf there is also a sort of precedent with Respect before it all - predictably - blew up. A classic example of everybody involved thinking that they could come out on top and get the whole organisation to dance to their tune, with predictable results.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 16, 2023 9:44:40 GMT
Tbf there is also a sort of precedent with Respect before it all - predictably - blew up. A classic example of everybody involved thinking that they could come out on top and get the whole organisation to dance to their tune, with predictable results. Yup, Galloway vs the SWP. Who could have predicted that that would end in tears?
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 16, 2023 9:52:45 GMT
A classic example of everybody involved thinking that they could come out on top and get the whole organisation to dance to their tune, with predictable results. Yup, Galloway vs the SWP. Who could have predicted that that would end in tears? "Two cats in a bag never did agree".
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weld
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Post by weld on Oct 17, 2023 6:02:11 GMT
Thanks for your insights Pete Whitehead and others. I guess for Labour, the main concern might be that Muslim voters simply stay at home, which might be more likely than a big third-party surge. Might Aspire stand candidates for the GLA or Parliament?
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Post by batman on Oct 17, 2023 8:13:45 GMT
I am very sceptical that there has been any sort of collapse, as opposed to very slight weakening, in Labour support amongst Muslims. Labour has enjoyed mass support amongst Muslim voters at times in the past when it has been broadly pro-Israel. Of course some are very unhappy but I don't think we're where we were e.g. after the invasion of Iraq when one of the other major parties explicitly opposed this and reaped the electoral benefit in the short term. In this case there is no major party which will seem better to pro-Palestinian voters than Labour is, not even the Greens. In Scotland of course both principal parties (we now have to regard Labour as such bearing in mind the opinion polls) are led by Muslims.
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weld
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Post by weld on Oct 17, 2023 8:27:22 GMT
I am very sceptical that there has been any sort of collapse, as opposed to very slight weakening, in Labour support amongst Muslims. Labour has enjoyed mass support amongst Muslim voters at times in the past when it has been broadly pro-Israel. Of course some are very unhappy but I don't think we're where we were e.g. after the invasion of Iraq when one of the other major parties explicitly opposed this and reaped the electoral benefit in the short term. In this case there is no major party which will seem better to pro-Palestinian voters than Labour is, not even the Greens. In Scotland of course both principal parties (we now have to regard Labour as such bearing in mind the opinion polls) are led by Muslims. Yes. Although to make a crude analogy, Jeremy Corbyn still had a big swing against him in Islington North in 2005 despite opposing the Iraq War.
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 17, 2023 10:34:33 GMT
I was out canvassing last week in a largely Pakistani Muslim area with a smaller Bangladeshi Muslim community. I would say there wasn't a huge backlash. I understand from comrades that Friday prayers was a difficult experience but I believe with reassurances having being made it's calmed things down.
I have been phoning members for volunteers this weekend and there were two or three unhappy people but that's it
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weld
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Post by weld on Oct 18, 2023 6:02:51 GMT
I was out canvassing last week in a largely Pakistani Muslim area with a smaller Bangladeshi Muslim community. I would say there wasn't a huge backlash. I understand from comrades that Friday prayers was a difficult experience but I believe with reassurances having being made it's calmed things down. I have been phoning members for volunteers this weekend and there were two or three unhappy people but that's it Thanks for your insights, mattbewilson . We may get some sense of how Labour is doing in London with the Hackney mayoral by-election.
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