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Post by owainsutton on Jun 20, 2023 18:40:44 GMT
Genuine question - does Berry have any connection to Brighton? Nor do plenty of voters given the transient nature of the local populace. Citation needed.
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 20, 2023 18:42:08 GMT
The GLA elections could be awful for the Tories - losing 4 constituency seats and probably only safely picking up 2 on the list to compensate. All the Labour seats will probably be constituency members, with the greens/Lib Dems/Tories/Reform fighting those D'hondt margins for the last 2 seats. It's a 5% minimum, isn't it? Reform aren't going to be hitting that.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,241
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 20, 2023 18:42:36 GMT
I think you're right, I can't recall one. There’s been a handful in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments/assemblies since they were all formed at roughly the same time but I suppose the London Assembly is considerably smaller than both The London Assembly is undersized and underpowered, but this was by design by the Blair government, who remembered the demise of the GLC and the reasons behind that. All the same, they clearly went too far in keeping it small.
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 21, 2023 1:26:14 GMT
There’s been a handful in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments/assemblies since they were all formed at roughly the same time but I suppose the London Assembly is considerably smaller than both The London Assembly is undersized and underpowered, but this was by design by the Blair government, who remembered the demise of the GLC and the reasons behind that. All the same, they clearly went too far in keeping it small. I don't think the size needs increasing a huge amount, but the addition of just one more constituency seat would massively improve the boundaries in the North East of the region and the overall disparity between seats.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 21, 2023 10:44:26 GMT
A good as any thread to post this.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 21, 2023 15:05:49 GMT
Pearce Branigan selected as the Conservative candidate for North East.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jun 21, 2023 15:11:46 GMT
A good as any thread to post this. Illustrates the very real divide between Inner and Outer London. And indeed why expansion of the Greater London boundaries is never gonna happen because of the threat it presents to vested interests. I do wonder if an administrative 'contraction' - perhaps a return to something like the 1900 LCC boundary - might be preferable for everyone on balance.
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Post by where2travel on Jun 21, 2023 16:14:33 GMT
Isn't this just a reaction because outer London is more Tory-friendly and it's those boroughs that are now impacted by the ULEZ expansion, and presumably those boroughs with the highest car ownership? The first iteration of ULEZ would have been less unpopular in inner London because residents in those boroughs were much less impacted anyway.
Bromley, Havering, Hillingdon and Bexley were least enthusiastic about the Assembly set-up in the first place looking at the referendum results (although all still supportive overall).
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Post by greenhert on Jun 21, 2023 17:28:41 GMT
A good as any thread to post this. Illustrates the very real divide between Inner and Outer London. And indeed why expansion of the Greater London boundaries is never gonna happen because of the threat it presents to vested interests. I do wonder if an administrative 'contraction' - perhaps a return to something like the 1900 LCC boundary - might be preferable for everyone on balance. Yes, except with Ealing, Haringey and Brent also being included (they are now more Inner London than Outer London by any standards).
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Post by aargauer on Jun 21, 2023 17:41:32 GMT
Good old Orpington. Lived there in my last year in the uk and it's profoundly normal by London standards. Was sad to leave.
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jun 21, 2023 19:04:33 GMT
A good as any thread to post this. It's difficult to get any real detail from a tweet and an undocumented map, but what's there does not suggest any great groundswell of opinion against the Greater London Mayor and Assembly, except perhaps in some distinctly localised (and fairly predictable) areas. In some contexts, 66,000+ might be considered a large number. However, in this one, it is equivalent to a bit over 1% of the total Greater London electorate, though it should be noted that we don't know how the signatories were contacted and, on the information given, it looks probable that quite a few of them actually come from neighbouring parts of the Home Counties rather than from Greater London itself. Apart from that 66,000+ total, not a single figure is given. However, on examination, the colours on the map presumably reflect numbers of signatures attributed to (the still just about) current parliamentary constituencies (whether in absolute terms or as proportions of their electorates), and the deeper the colour, the higher the number. We can, I think, conclude that: - The most disaffected constituency is Orpington.
- The next in terms of signatories are Hornchurch and Upminster, Old Bexley and Sidcup, Croydon South, and Carshalton and Wallington. All of these are on the eastern or southern borders of Greater London.
- The next group down consists of Romford, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Bromley and Chislehurst, Beckenham, Sutton and Cheam, and Spelthorne. All of these, apart from Spelthorne, are also in outer eastern or southern London, and are neighbours of constituencies in the first two groups. Spelthorne, of course, is outside Greater London, in Surrey (though formerly Middlesex).
- The fourth group consists of Dagenham and Rainham, Croydon Central, Kingston and Surbiton, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner - all again on the borders of Greater London, though the last two of these are the first two listed constituencies on the western border.
- The fifth group consists of Eltham, Mitcham and Morden, Feltham and Heston, Hayes and Harlington, Ealing North, and Chingford and Woodford Green in Greater London. And of Dartford, and Sevenoaks, in Kent; Surrey East, Reigate, and Epsom and Ewell, in Surrey; and Brentwood and Ongar, in Essex.
- There is a final group, of 17 constituencies in the outer parts of Greater London and 12 in neighbouring counties. While, though, there was obviously some support for the petition in these constituencies, it was presumably pretty low - just possibly running at 1% or 2% of the electorate, but no more.
Overall, the petition organisers presumably did not contact everyone who might have signed it (though - unless this was an utter fraud - they must have circulated it fairly widely), and not everyone who might vote 'Yes' in a referendum would sign a petition. But, on the evidence available, I would conclude that while the proposition, if voted on, might well succeed in Orpington, and possibly in some of the four constituencies in the next group. But I would be rather surprised to find it doing so anywhere else in Greater London, and would expect it to be defeated decisively not only in the final group of constituencies but also in the fifth group. But this means that what one is looking at is not a division between inner and outer London, but within outer London - essentially, this might well be an issue in most of zone 6 and parts of zone 5, but no further in. And what the views of people outside Greater London are should be considered (at least for as long as there are no serious proposals even under consideration for expanding Greater London) as of no relevance on this matter.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 21, 2023 19:34:22 GMT
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Post by wysall on Jun 21, 2023 21:00:48 GMT
Three signatures in Orkney and Shetland.
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Post by BossMan on Jun 21, 2023 21:08:17 GMT
I wonder if there are people who sign every petition going, like Mike Hancock used to do with EDMs.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 21, 2023 21:25:29 GMT
Conservative candidate for Brent and Harrow is Stefan Voloseniuc. Anglo-Romanian businessman; stood in the Barnhill ward byelection in Brent in January 2020.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 21, 2023 22:36:01 GMT
In some contexts, 66,000+ might be considered a large number. However, in this one, it is equivalent to a bit over 1% of the total Greater London electorate, though it should be noted that we don't know how the signatories were contacted and, on the information given, it looks probable that quite a few of them actually come from neighbouring parts of the Home Counties rather than from Greater London itself. ... And what the views of people outside Greater London are should be considered (at least for as long as there are no serious proposals even under consideration for expanding Greater London) as of no relevance on this matter. As I've previously noted, the petition is asking for the electorate in such a referendum to be "all voters within the M25" (poor North Ockendon) so some of these are more relevant than that.
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Post by BossMan on Jun 21, 2023 23:03:18 GMT
Is North Ockendon the only part of Greater London outside the M25? I know it's the only place of any size but I'm sure I once read that there are a couple of houses in the very far north and far west that are outside the motorway.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 21, 2023 23:32:29 GMT
Is North Ockendon the only part of Greater London outside the M25? I know it's the only place of any size but I'm sure I once read that there are a couple of houses in the very far north and far west that are outside the motorway. Because the northern boundary of Enfield and the western boundary of Hillingdon is sometimes placed at the farthest extent of the highway land, there is some land outside the M25 but inside Greater London between Potters Bar and Waltham Cross, and just outside Poyle - but it doesn't seem to have any buildings on it.
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 1,982
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Post by ColinJ on Jun 22, 2023 6:00:45 GMT
Conservative candidate for Brent and Harrow is Stefan Voloseniuc. Anglo-Romanian businessman; stood in the Barnhill ward byelection in Brent in January 2020. Voloseniuc was also an unsuccessful candidate to Harrow Council in 2022, losing in Edgware ward. The SOPN showed "(address in Brent)", possibly aiding the single Labour hold in the ward
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 22, 2023 9:39:00 GMT
The London Assembly is undersized and underpowered, but this was by design by the Blair government, who remembered the demise of the GLC and the reasons behind that. All the same, they clearly went too far in keeping it small. I don't think the size needs increasing a huge amount, but the addition of just one more constituency seat would massively improve the boundaries in the North East of the region and the overall disparity between seats. What arrangement were you thinking? Move City of London to West Central, then turn the rest of the three north-eastern constituencies into four pairs: Islington & Hackney, Tower Hamlets & Newham; Waltham Forest & Ilford; Havering & B&D? The last would be a bit on the small side, but only to about the same extent West Central currently is and much less than City & East and North East are currently on the large side.
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