Local Council by-elections 9th February 2023

[Tony Otim]

CHELTENHAM DC; Battledown (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CAMERON, Ian Alexander (Green)
CHIDLEY, Ed (Liberal Democrat)
GAVIN, Caroline Adele (Labour)
JACKO, Marcia Mary (Conservative)

2022: Con 893; LD 785; Grn 246
2021: Con 1005; LD 850; Grn 185; Lab 132
2018: Con 971; LD 503; Lab 108; Grn 87
2016: Con 850; LD 444; Lab 137; Grn 98
May 15 by: Con 1477; LD 1037; Grn 243; Lab 200; UKIP 181
2014: Con 814; LD 741; UKIP 215
2012: Con 771; LD 414; Grn 204
2010: Con 1563; LD 1438
2008: Con 1013; LD 442; Lab 64
2006: Con 1032; LD 387; Lab 92
2004: Con 1035; LD 523; Lab 142
2002: Con 711, 711; LD 701, 699; Lab 97

Vacancy is for the 2021-24 term. Ed Chidley stood here for the Lib Dems in 2022, whilst Caroline Gavin stood for Labour in 2021 & 2018.

Current Council: LD 29; Con 5; Grn 2; People Against Bureaucracy 2; Non-Aligned 1; 1 vacancy



DARTFORD DC; Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley (Con resigned)
Candidates:
HOOD, Julian Patrick (Green)
LAMPKIN, Eddy (Conservative)
WYNNE, Jonathan Paul Ludlow (Labour)

Jan 22by: Con 996; Lab 272; LD 200
May 21by: Con 1465; Lab 445; RefUk 88
2019: Con 1184, 1112. 1021; Ind 433; UKIP 394; Lab 314, 307, 294

The resigning councillor was the one elected in 2021 by-election. Eddy Lampkin (Con) was Conservative councillor for the old Wilmington ward 2003-2019. He stood as an independent in this ward in 2019. Julian Hood stood for the Greens in the Maypole & Leyton Cross by-election last January.

Current Council: Con 28; Lab 7; Ind Party Grp 2; Alliance Grp 2 (1Grn, 1 Ind); Ind 2; 1 vacancy



DENBIGHSHIRE UA; Rhyl Ty Newydd (Lab died)
Candidates;
HUGHES-JONES, John (Plaid Cymru)
JONES, Brian (Conservative)
KIRWAN, Keith Richard (Liberal Democrats)
McALPINE, Jacquie (Labour)
ROWLANDS, Simon (Independent)

2022: Lab 682, 612; Con 465, 396

Brian Jones was the top Conservative candidate last May, and former councillor for the old Rhyl South East Ward (which this new ward constitutes half of) from 2017-22.

Current Council: Lab 17; Ind 13; PC 8; Con 6; Grn 2; Non-aligned 1; 1 vacancy



HERTFORDSHIRE CC; Hitchin North (Lab died)
Candidates:
ALBERT, Ian Clive (Labour)
ELTRINGHAM, Deolinda Maria (Green)
MUNCER, Ralph Gerald (Conservative)
SMITH, Leigh (Christian People’s Alliance)

2021: Lab 2701; Con 1366; Grn 530; LD 484; CPA 71
2017: Lab 2223; Con 1215; LD 550; Grn 321; TUSC 35

The Green and CPA candidates both contested the Hitchin South by-election last March (that by-election was a LD hold with no Labour candidate). Ian Albert is sitting district councillor for Hitchin Bearton (in this division) since 2016, Ralph Muncer contested that ward unsuccessfully in 2021.

Current Council: Con 46; LD 23; Lab 6; Grn 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH YORKSHIRE UA; Masham & Fountains (Con died)
Candidates:
CUNLIFFE-LISTER, Felicity (Liberal Democrats)
HULL, Brooke Victoria (Conservative)

2022: Con 1076; Ind 738; LD 620

Felicity Cunliffe-Lister (LD) was the independent candidate last year.

Current Council: Con 46; LD 12; Lab 12; N Yorks Ind 8; Grn 5; Ind Unaffilated 5; Lib 1; 1 vacancy.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I presume Felicity Cunliffe-Lister is related to Susan Cunliffe-Lister, Baroness Masham of Ilton - holder of the earliest Life Peerage still in existence (1970) and also a very well-known figure locally in Masham who runs a riding centre for the disabled.

[Tony Otim]

Jan 16, 2023 14:01:42 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I presume Felicity Cunliffe-Lister is related to Susan Cunliffe-Lister, Baroness Masham of Ilton - holder of the earliest Life Peerage still in existence (1970) and also a very well-known figure locally in Masham who runs a riding centre for the disabled.

Felicity is apparently the Countess of Swinton...

[Pete Whitehead]

It will be interesting to see the extent to which the Lib Dems will challenge in Hitchin North. With the national polls as they are you'd not expect any serious threat to Labour there but they should be looking to move into a clear second place at least

[lackeroftalent]

Jan 16, 2023 14:17:15 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It will be interesting to see the extent to which the Lib Dems will challenge in Hitchin North. With the national polls as they are you'd not expect any serious threat to Labour there but they should be looking to move into a clear second place at least

I think second for the Lib Dems in Hitchin North would be a surprise given they aren't standing.

Did you mean the Green candidate?

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 16, 2023 14:30:05 GMT lackeroftalent said:

Jan 16, 2023 14:17:15 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It will be interesting to see the extent to which the Lib Dems will challenge in Hitchin North. With the national polls as they are you'd not expect any serious threat to Labour there but they should be looking to move into a clear second place at least

I think second for the Lib Dems in Hitchin North would be a surprise given they aren't standing.

Did you mean the Green candidate?

No I meant the imaginary Lib Dem candidate. I should probably not skim read posts and try to comment while busy doing other things. I suppose it is not surprising there is some kind of Lib/Lab pact here given they run the district council together and that Labour stood aside in Hitchin South but it hardly seems necessary in that case.
I wouldn't expect the Greens to make much impact, but they could come second by default..

[batman]

The Cheltenham ward is quite interesting as to some extent one could argue that the Lib Dems have actually (at least at times) if anything improved SINCE the coalition without actually winning up to now. Suspect they will finally make it this time

[finsobruce]

Jan 16, 2023 14:59:28 GMT batman said:

The Cheltenham ward is quite interesting as to some extent one could argue that the Lib Dems have actually (at least at times) if anything improved SINCE the coalition without actually winning up to now. Suspect they will finally make it this time

you can see two Lib Dem gains in these contests and two labour holds with the Dartford ward staying Tory as everyone else is so far behind.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 16, 2023 14:59:28 GMT batman said:

The Cheltenham ward is quite interesting as to some extent one could argue that the Lib Dems have actually (at least at times) if anything improved SINCE the coalition without actually winning up to now. Suspect they will finally make it this time

Battledown is one of only two wards in Cheltenham (which has 20 wards) which the Liberal Democrats have never won; the other is Prestbury which is won by PABAG. This is likely to be their best opportunity to get in there, and will make it even more difficult for the Conservatives to come back into contention in the borough.

[mrtoad]

The Swinton earldom is very much associated with the Conservative Party; it was given originally to Sir Philip Cunliffe-Lister (who had changed his surname from Lloyd-Greame, another old family, when he married into the Cunliffe-Lister line). The Conservatives had a training school for MPs, candidates and activists at the family seat Swinton Hall, which is near Masham rather than in South Yorkshire or Salford, from 1948-76 - part of the professionalisation and renewal of the party after their loss in 1945.

[evergreenadam]

Jan 16, 2023 15:55:51 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Jan 16, 2023 14:59:28 GMT batman said:

The Cheltenham ward is quite interesting as to some extent one could argue that the Lib Dems have actually (at least at times) if anything improved SINCE the coalition without actually winning up to now. Suspect they will finally make it this time

Battledown is one of only two wards in Cheltenham (which has 20 wards) which the Liberal Democrats have never won; the other is Prestbury which is won by PABAG. This is likely to be their best opportunity to get in there, and will make it even more difficult for the Conservatives to come back into contention in the borough.

Battledown has disappointed the Lib Dems before, although the concentrated resources of a by-election might help this time. With the Lab and Green candidates standing there is still a risk the Tory will sneak home.

[Foggy]

Is North Yorkshire not still a CC rather than a UA until April??

[lackeroftalent]

Jan 16, 2023 22:14:17 GMT Foggy said:

Is North Yorkshire not still a CC rather than a UA until April??

Yes it is.

The notice of election and SoPN both refer to electing a county councillor to North Yorkshire County Council. I seem to recall these county councillors will become the UA councillors when one replaces the other.

[timrollpickering]

Jan 16, 2023 14:08:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jan 16, 2023 14:01:42 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I presume Felicity Cunliffe-Lister is related to Susan Cunliffe-Lister, Baroness Masham of Ilton - holder of the earliest Life Peerage still in existence (1970) and also a very well-known figure locally in Masham who runs a riding centre for the disabled.

Felicity is apparently the Countess of Swinton...

So I presume Susan's daughter-in-law? It seems she's her niece in law. Susan and the second Earl adopted but had no children of their own so the title passed to a younger brother and now to his son.

[CatholicLeft]

Jan 16, 2023 23:35:05 GMT timrollpickering said:

Jan 16, 2023 14:08:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

Felicity is apparently the Countess of Swinton...

So I presume Susan's daughter-in-law? It seems she's her niece in law. Susan and the second Earl adopted but had no children of their own so the title passed to a younger brother and now to his son.

Susan was married to Nicholas, who bacame the third Earl 10 years after after their divorce , not the second. Felicity is her daughter-in-law, married to her son, the 4th Earl of Swinton.

[timrollpickering]

You're confusing Susans, as they were sisters-in-law. Baroness Masham of Ilton nee Sinclair is the widow of David, the second Earl. (Baron Masham is the courtesy title.) Nicholas, the future third Earl, married Susan Whitelaw who continues to use the Cunliffe-Lister surname post divorce.

[The Bishop]

The contest in Dartford is the last 2019 vacancy to go to the polls before this May's elections.

Curious that it has had two byelections previously since then - will voter fatigue lead to a drop in Tory support as well as more general factors?

[Tony Otim]

Feb 3, 2023 11:22:17 GMT The Bishop said:

The contest in Dartford is the last 2019 vacancy to go to the polls before this May's elections.

Curious that it has had two byelections previously since then - will voter fatigue lead to a drop in Tory support as well as more general factors?

It was so safe for them in both May 2019 and Jan 22, which were both bad times for the Conservatives, that I struggle to see that making too much difference...

[The Bishop]

I did say a "drop" in support, agree that their actually losing it will be a stretch.

[jamesdoyle]

Previews, get your previews: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-west-lancashire-parliamentary-by-election-and-the-five-local-by-elections-of-9th-2e0a8416de3