J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,635
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 10, 2023 22:34:57 GMT
Indeed, the result is pretty close to last May's if you add the Indy vote to the Lib Dem one, and allow for a bit more Tory slide. So @carlton is a bit wrong when he says "far more a vote", etc, it's rather closer to 50/50 than that suggests. On the Upper Class thing ("he looks down on him", etc) I seem to remember it was always thus in the more feudal bits of Yorkshire- I remember spending some time campaigning in those parts in the earliest days of the Lib Dems (even before they were so called) and being surprised at the support and influence of the great aristocratic (Whiggish?) families. Nor is this confined to Yorkshire- I'm remembering a famous victory in the more feudal parts of Kent where it pays to have the local aristocracy as the Lib Dem candidate- I am thinking Penshurst and Chiddingstone. Of course the added piquancy in the Masham case is the family connection to old style Toryism rather than Whiggery, what one might term Whitelawry. It might well be that that sort of old style Toryism which despises the spivvery of present day so-called Conservatism might find more in common with Liberal Democracy. One of the Pennant family (as in Penrhyn Castle and Quarry) stood as a Lib Dem candidate in Bangor a few years ago; quite remarkable given the history of the family. I remember chatting to somebody in a Sheffield campaign and Chatsworth came up. "Of course, the old Duke was a supporter, nothing like the new Duke. *And* he's put the prices up."
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 11, 2023 10:32:38 GMT
One can also wonder about the impact of a Conservative candidate living in the middle of the ward vs. a Labour candidate with "address in Denbighshire". And the silliest thing about that is the latter candidate *might* actually have lived just a few streets away from the actual ward. (maybe they were indeed from a long way away, but there's no way of telling from this alone) As has been mentioned before, there is a case for changing this to "address in <local government division>" rather than council/constituency as at present.
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Post by spirit on Feb 11, 2023 15:23:29 GMT
Did I read that correctly that the LD candidate polled FIVE votes in the Rhyl seat! So that's the candidate, their agent, their partner and their parents! The good old days of pointing out that it is fewer than the 10 required signatures now sadly gone.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,985
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Post by maxque on Feb 11, 2023 23:45:29 GMT
andrewtealeThere is a problem with your map and description of Masham and Fountains. The map and description is about the old county division, not the new one (it goes south to Ripley now, but doesn't go north or east of Ripon). Plainly, it's just the sum of the old Fountains & Ripley and Masham & Kirkby Malzeard. As reference for future North Yorkshire by-elections, here's the SI: www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/328/schedule/1/made
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,635
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 12, 2023 2:15:34 GMT
andrewteale There is a problem with your map and description of Masham and Fountains. The map and description is about the old county division, not the new one (it goes south to Ripley now, but doesn't go north or east of Ripon). Plainly, it's just the sum of the old Fountains & Ripley and Masham & Kirkby Malzeard. As reference for future North Yorkshire by-elections, here's the SI: www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/328/schedule/1/made Yes, there were some tweeks between the announcement of the unitary council and the Statutory Instrument, and it caught me out when drawing up maps and spreadsheets from the election last year.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 12, 2023 8:15:33 GMT
Looking further back at that that Masham and Fountains result, I note the result from 2005: Paul Richardson(Con) 2605 (59.3%) Geoffrey Home (LD) 1787 (40.7%) I think that indicates there always was a potentially substantial LD vote in the area, which may rather contradict the carlton43 notion that the win this time is entirely down to the candidature of the Countess and not at all to the party brand - more people in total voted for the party brand in 2005 than in 2023. It also contradicts somewhat Andrew Teale's comment that in the past the Tory vote was around 70% (and yes the 2005 figures come from LEAP). Of course there is a good reason why the overall figures in 2005 are high, and that same reason will tend to exaggerate the party brand vote. I'm still not sure (given the comments upthread) about the divisional boundaries now and then but I don't think they fundamentally change the nature of the division. Incidentally I mentioned earlier that I did some campaigning in this part of the world in the very earliest days of the Lib Dems- that was basically around Ripley. So like Carlton I can tentatively claim to know the area politically. I don't however claim that everone there thinks like me, which is how I view Carlton's claims.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,293
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Post by YL on Feb 12, 2023 8:45:56 GMT
andrewtealeThere is a problem with your map and description of Masham and Fountains. The map and description is about the old county division, not the new one (it goes south to Ripley now, but doesn't go north or east of Ripon). Plainly, it's just the sum of the old Fountains & Ripley and Masham & Kirkby Malzeard. As reference for future North Yorkshire by-elections, here's the SI: www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/328/schedule/1/made Both the Ordnance Survey's Election Maps website and their Boundary Line data (at least the version I have) still show the old division boundaries in North Yorkshire. I don't know why: as I understand things last May's election was held on the new boundaries and was for the existing county council as well as the new unitary, so the old division boundaries are genuinely obsolete (as opposed to the district ward boundaries, which will only become obsolete in April).
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,533
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Post by European Lefty on Feb 12, 2023 10:44:00 GMT
andrewteale There is a problem with your map and description of Masham and Fountains. The map and description is about the old county division, not the new one (it goes south to Ripley now, but doesn't go north or east of Ripon). Plainly, it's just the sum of the old Fountains & Ripley and Masham & Kirkby Malzeard. As reference for future North Yorkshire by-elections, here's the SI: www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/328/schedule/1/made Both the Ordnance Survey's Election Maps website and their Boundary Line data (at least the version I have) still show the old division boundaries in North Yorkshire. I don't know why: as I understand things last May's election was held on the new boundaries and was for the existing county council as well as the new unitary, so the old division boundaries are genuinely obsolete (as opposed to the district ward boundaries, which will only become obsolete in April). I think they only update their boundaries when the shadow authorities become actual authorities
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 12, 2023 11:28:30 GMT
Both the Ordnance Survey's Election Maps website and their Boundary Line data (at least the version I have) still show the old division boundaries in North Yorkshire. I don't know why: as I understand things last May's election was held on the new boundaries and was for the existing county council as well as the new unitary, so the old division boundaries are genuinely obsolete (as opposed to the district ward boundaries, which will only become obsolete in April). I think they only update their boundaries when the shadow authorities become actual authorities Which is ridiculous, and on this occasion it's caught out not only me but also the local person I ran the draft preview against. There will be a rant against OS in next week's piece.
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Post by carolus on Feb 12, 2023 11:38:02 GMT
Both the Ordnance Survey's Election Maps website and their Boundary Line data (at least the version I have) still show the old division boundaries in North Yorkshire. I don't know why: as I understand things last May's election was held on the new boundaries and was for the existing county council as well as the new unitary, so the old division boundaries are genuinely obsolete (as opposed to the district ward boundaries, which will only become obsolete in April). I think they only update their boundaries when the shadow authorities become actual authorities But it *is* an actual authority, isn't it? The elections in 2022 were to North Yorks CC, which is in existence (for another couple of months).
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,533
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Post by European Lefty on Feb 12, 2023 11:40:11 GMT
I think they only update their boundaries when the shadow authorities become actual authorities But it *is* an actual authority, isn't it? The elections in 2022 were to North Yorks CC, which is in existence (for another couple of months). As I understand it, the terms of the North Yorks CCllrs were extended by a year up to the date of abolition (making a 6 year term overall as there have been no elections to that authority since 2017), and the 2022 election was for members of the shadow unitary authority
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 12, 2023 11:59:31 GMT
But it *is* an actual authority, isn't it? The elections in 2022 were to North Yorks CC, which is in existence (for another couple of months). As I understand it, the terms of the North Yorks CCllrs were extended by a year up to the date of abolition (making a 6 year term overall as there have been no elections to that authority since 2017), and the 2022 election was for members of the shadow unitary authority Not so. The 2022 election was an ordinary North Yorkshire County Council election which had been postponed from 2021.
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