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Post by swingometer on May 4, 2024 22:47:21 GMT
Look at the constituency results in the elections which have just taken place. They are for the most part in line with the polls, with Labour outpolling the Tories in terms of the popular vote in some constituencies which are not generally regarded as being on the radar for the general election - South Derbyshire & NE Hertfordshire come immediately to mind but there are others too. It is true that there are some exceptions where Labour is doing worse, Bristol Central being an obvious example (though that doesn't help the Tories at all), and Pendle another. Labour does not win elections in county-wide areas like Norfolk or in York & N Yorkshire without being in an extremely strong position. I agree that there will not be a Labour outright majority of 300, but I do not think that the polls are that wrong; there is a large bank of voters who are prepared to vote for the Greens & Lib Dems, or certain independents, in local elections who will vote Labour in a general election if that is the best tactical option, which in the majority of seats it is. I don't expect in the end that Labour will outpoll the Tories by as much as 20% in a general election, but I think the gap will be a large one; having said that, I do expect any narrowing to be reflected in the polls. The polling for some mayoral contests was definitely out, and those particular pollsters will have to think about that, but opinion polling for general elections is improving all the time, and I wouldn't get my hopes up too high that they are seriously exaggerating Labour's lead. It will be interesting to see if Muslims who have protested in these elections continue to do so; I guess some will, and some will return to Labour with varying degrees of reluctance. I am struggling to think of many seats that this rebellion is likely to cost Labour in the general election, but there might just be a small number. My gut feel is that Labour did a bit better on Thursday than they have in the local by elections in the last year. I think the Lab performance in local by elections hasn’t reflected the size of poll lead that Labour have- a net loss in 2023/24 and I think only +1 in direct net gains from the Tories over the year. But surprisingly few local election contests are straight Lab/ Con battles so reading from them is not straightforward, although probably the urban slant of the tranche that were up on Thurs meant there are more Lab/ Con battles in that tranche than the 23/27 cycle tranche. I think we can all pick constituencies that are exceptions at local level- compare say Worcester and Harlow- but I doubt the general election swings will be that different in those 2 seats in the GE. My hunch is that the polls are slightly exaggerating the Lab lead but not by much. I don’t think Labour will lose any seats in this general election bar the Eastend and the mill towns over Palestine. Thoughts?
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Post by Merseymike on May 4, 2024 22:51:31 GMT
My gut feel is that Labour did a bit better on Thursday than they have in the local by elections in the last year. I think the Lab performance in local by elections hasn’t reflected the size of poll lead that Labour have- a net loss in 2023/24 and I think only +1 in direct net gains from the Tories over the year. But surprisingly few local election contests are straight Lab/ Con battles so reading from them is not straightforward, although probably the urban slant of the tranche that were up on Thurs meant there are more Lab/ Con battles in that tranche than the 23/27 cycle tranche. I think we can all pick constituencies that are exceptions at local level- compare say Worcester and Harlow- but I doubt the general election swings will be that different in those 2 seats in the GE. My hunch is that the polls are slightly exaggerating the Lab lead but not by much. I don’t think Labour will lose any seats in this general election bar the Eastend and the mill towns over Palestine. Thoughts? Not the East End. Labour will be ok in London. The mill areas might be a problem - Pendle and Clitheroe, Burnley, perhaps Blackburn? Or Dewsbury and Batley?
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Post by uthacalthing on May 5, 2024 0:44:09 GMT
5.1% swing from Con to Khan in Merton and Wandsworth and 4.5% in Lewisham and Greenwich Will Reform cost Hall the Mayoralty? Will be interesting when we get to the outer suburbs. I actually laughed at that
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Post by uthacalthing on May 5, 2024 0:46:17 GMT
BBC saying Labour thinks Sadiq has won! Does journalism of that quality justify taking single mums on benefits to court for non payment of the licence fee?
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Post by uthacalthing on May 5, 2024 0:52:36 GMT
Khan finishes 11.1% ahead of Hall Which is still a big underperformance on national polls nevermind London ones. He's vulnerable when Labour will be 3 years into government. If there is a competent Conservative candidate from a competent Conservative opposition
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Post by batman on May 5, 2024 4:43:41 GMT
I don’t think Labour will lose any seats in this general election bar the Eastend and the mill towns over Palestine. Thoughts? Not the East End. Labour will be ok in London. The mill areas might be a problem - Pendle and Clitheroe, Burnley, perhaps Blackburn? Or Dewsbury and Batley? some of the ones you mention are currently Tory but I know what you mean
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Post by evergreenadam on May 5, 2024 9:27:23 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on May 5, 2024 10:28:46 GMT
Which is the first saved deposit for the LibDems since 2008 in the actual mayoral election I think?
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Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 5, 2024 11:12:27 GMT
BBC saying Labour thinks Sadiq has won! Does journalism of that quality justify taking single mums on benefits to court for non payment of the licence fee? BBC News is notoriously poor quality compared to most other departments (a result of constantly picking ideologues!)
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,130
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Post by maxque on May 5, 2024 12:49:57 GMT
Which is the first saved deposit for the LibDems since 2008 in the actual mayoral election I think? Yes Saved deposits: 2024: Lab, Con, LD, Grn 2021: Lab, Con, Grn 2016: Lab, Con, Grn 2012: Con, Lab 2008: Con, Lab, LD 2004: Lab, Con, LD, UKIP 2000: Livingston, Con, Lab, LD
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Post by johnloony on May 5, 2024 16:32:48 GMT
Gavin Barwell has tweeted that he didn’t vote for Susan Hall.
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Post by spinach on May 6, 2024 11:11:32 GMT
I understand the count was not published by ward, but does anyone have any knowledge of any areas having a swing towards the Conservatives? The London Assembly constituencies are too large with Labour or Tory leaning areas paired together, which is very unhelp for us psephology/political geeks.
I can imagine a swing towards the Conservatives was likely in areas such as New Addington, Biggin Hill, Orpington, Romford, Sidcup and Chessington. Susan Hall's campaign likely appealed to such areas (C1/C2, White British, high car-ownership), although unfortunately for Hall this is a smaller and declining demographic in London.
Furthermore, I wonder if Labour will fall short in a number of semi-marginal Tory seats in Outer London in the upcoming general election based on the Mayoral election results.
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Post by Merseymike on May 6, 2024 11:16:46 GMT
I understand the count was not published by ward, but does anyone have any knowledge of any areas having a swing towards the Conservatives? The London Assembly constituencies are too large with Labour or Tory leaning areas paired together, which is very unhelp for us psephology/political geeks. I can imagine a swing towards the Conservatives was likely in areas such as New Addington, Biggin Hill, Orpington, Romford, Sidcup and Chessington. Susan Hall's campaign likely appealed to such areas (C1/C2, White British, high car-ownership), although unfortunately for Hall this is a smaller and declining demographic in London. Furthermore, I wonder if Labour will fall short in a number of semi-marginal Tory seats in Outer London in the upcoming general election based on the Mayoral election results. Such as? Very few are marginal.
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Post by spinach on May 6, 2024 11:35:46 GMT
I understand the count was not published by ward, but does anyone have any knowledge of any areas having a swing towards the Conservatives? The London Assembly constituencies are too large with Labour or Tory leaning areas paired together, which is very unhelp for us psephology/political geeks. I can imagine a swing towards the Conservatives was likely in areas such as New Addington, Biggin Hill, Orpington, Romford, Sidcup and Chessington. Susan Hall's campaign likely appealed to such areas (C1/C2, White British, high car-ownership), although unfortunately for Hall this is a smaller and declining demographic in London. Furthermore, I wonder if Labour will fall short in a number of semi-marginal Tory seats in Outer London in the upcoming general election based on the Mayoral election results. Such as? Very few are marginal. True which is why I said semi-marginal. Parliamentary seats such as Chipping Barnet and Eltham and Chislehurst (probably will be won by Labour but on smaller than average swings), Uxbridge and Ruislip, Croydon South and Harrow East. Perhaps the Tories will narrowly hold on in Sutton and Cheam as well.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on May 6, 2024 11:43:42 GMT
I don't think we should extrapolate *too* much to a GE which will both have higher turnout and, to a significant degree at least, be fought on different issues.
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Post by batman on May 6, 2024 11:45:34 GMT
Uxbridge & S Ruislip - which just happens to be the seat to which I have been assigned for the general election as a "twinned key seat" - is perhaps the one where ULEZ could have the greatest impact. It's definitely still doable in the context of a general election, but it would be a surprise if the swing is not quite a bit lower than the national average at least. In Harrow East I think that there are other factors working against Labour at least as much as ULEZ although in the event of a very heavy Tory defeat I wouldn't yet rule it out altogether; it is a tough one to gain, though. I don't see Labour falling short in any of the Barnet seats, or in Eltham & Chislehurst. Croydon South on its new boundaries is a big ask for Labour & it would be a surprise if it were gained even before ULEZ is taken into account.
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Post by london(ex)tory on May 6, 2024 18:04:02 GMT
Can’t imagine why Londoners are so reluctant to vote for Brian Rose. 😀 I didn't even know he was standing until the SOPN was published. Last time he must have spent a fortune on advertising, this time he didn't even do the page in the booklet. Very strange.
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Post by stodge on May 6, 2024 18:23:08 GMT
In my part of London (City & East), Khan got 55.6%, Hall 19.7% and Zoe Garbett for the Greens was third with 6.8%
More interesting was the GLA seat where Unmesh Desai also won by 36 points getting 50.8% against the Conservative 14.8%.
The Conservative beat the Green for second by just 10 votes with the Green candidate, one Joe Hudson-Small, the PPC for Stratford & Bow, also polling 14.8%.
On this evidence, I'd be confident in a prediction of the Greens finishing second in the new Stratford & Bow seat which contains the Stratford New Town Ward won by the Greens at the 2022 Local elections.
With a pro-Palestine candidate running as a Newham Independent in East Ham (and I presume there will be one in West Ham & Beckton as well), it may be harder for the Greens to make headway and I suspect they'll be piling their activists into the Stratford & Bow seat.
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Post by batman on May 6, 2024 18:33:22 GMT
Can’t imagine why Londoners are so reluctant to vote for Brian Rose. 😀 I didn't even know he was standing until the SOPN was published. Last time he must have spent a fortune on advertising, this time he didn't even do the page in the booklet. Very strange. he is very strange
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Post by michaelarden on May 6, 2024 19:34:41 GMT
In my part of London (City & East), Khan got 55.6%, Hall 19.7% and Zoe Garbett for the Greens was third with 6.8% More interesting was the GLA seat where Unmesh Desai also won by 36 points getting 50.8% against the Conservative 14.8%. The Conservative beat the Green for second by just 10 votes with the Green candidate, one Joe Hudson-Small, the PPC for Stratford & Bow, also polling 14.8%. On this evidence, I'd be confident in a prediction of the Greens finishing second in the new Stratford & Bow seat which contains the Stratford New Town Ward won by the Greens at the 2022 Local elections. With a pro-Palestine candidate running as a Newham Independent in East Ham (and I presume there will be one in West Ham & Beckton as well), it may be harder for the Greens to make headway and I suspect they'll be piling their activists into the Stratford & Bow seat. I think their Tower Hamlets councillor is also in this seat.
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