Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2020 16:46:03 GMT
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on May 23, 2020 17:47:54 GMT
Assuming it takes, place that will depend on how the Tories are perceived to have handled coronavirus at the time. On their current form, I'd say Plaid hold with an increased majority.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on May 23, 2020 19:20:56 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2020 19:29:57 GMT
Labour would also be competitive in a by election (hopefully). It would certainly be an interesting contest.
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2020 19:42:04 GMT
Labour would also be competitive in a by election (hopefully). It would certainly be an interesting contest. it's an unknown but all we can go on is the polls which at the moment are good for the tories
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2020 19:46:57 GMT
Labour would also be competitive in a by election (hopefully). It would certainly be an interesting contest. it's an unknown but all we can go on is the polls which at the moment are good for the tories It's not all we can go on. And national polls aren't much use in a seat held by Plaid.
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2020 19:47:46 GMT
it's an unknown but all we can go on is the polls which at the moment are good for the tories It's not all we can go on. And national polls aren't much use in a seat held by Plaid. i was thinking more the Welsh polls
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WJ
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Post by WJ on May 23, 2020 19:53:43 GMT
Labour would also be competitive in a by election (hopefully). It would certainly be an interesting contest. I would expect all three main parties to throw the kitchen sink at at, and I bet the Lib Dems would do the same. It would make a fascinating contest with a lot riding on it for everyone concerned. Sad circumstances, should the allegations turn out to be true.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 23, 2020 19:59:32 GMT
Labour would also be competitive in a by election (hopefully). It would certainly be an interesting contest. The earliest the by-election could be (and remember we don't know what's happened etc) will be May 2021 (unless I'm missing something), which will coincide with the Welsh Parliament (Assembly) election. If it's on the same day easy Plaid hold. Labour should go for it with their new leader. I think the Conservatives will have missed there chance tbh, I know their poll rating is up, but Brexit has passed. Lib Dems would have no chance in this seat.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 24, 2020 12:35:02 GMT
With the terrible Labour result there 6 months ago you are probably right (AFAIK it was the worst Labour result since they first contested it a century ago!) Tories don’t look like making gains now, and LDs out of it. Something wierd could happen, of course. A “progressive anti-Nationalist alliance” might win it.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 12:54:45 GMT
A Starmer bounce could allow the Tories to deprive Plaid of the seat.
Although unlike in Scotland, Welsh Nationalists hold up better in their long-held rural seats.
We could see a GRN+LD+PC progressive alliance but it could be offset by a swing from Plaid to Labour.
I expect it would be close. The Tories held up well in Brecon & Radnor and Newport West in last year's by-elections.
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Post by timrollpickering on May 24, 2020 13:36:11 GMT
Although unlike in Scotland, Welsh Nationalists hold up better in their long-held rural seats. Yes but Plaid hasn't yet got to a position where its historic heartlands discover the modern party leadership has a very different vision of where they want to take the country. They've been lucky in that their historic heartlands had strong Remain votes (although Ynys Mon remains a law unto itself) and the prospect of a Welsh separation referendum is so much further off that the detail of Plaid's vision of a post UK Wales doesn't matter so much.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 13:39:10 GMT
With the terrible Labour result there 6 months ago you are probably right (AFAIK it was the worst Labour result since they first contested it a century ago!) Tories don’t look like making gains now, and LDs out of it. Something wierd could happen, of course. A “progressive anti-Nationalist alliance” might win it. Tories don't look like their making gains now? That's just daft. The Tories are in the best position in Wales for a long time. We could see them making some serious gains in the Assembly elections next year
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 24, 2020 13:45:36 GMT
Welsh polling basically just reflects the national picture with a few (usually pretty small) modifications. When that's not the case, it usually means that the poll is wrong.
Anyway, who knows what the political situation will look like by the time elections are a thing again in this country. Pointless to speculate much. For what it's worth, there are 'naturally' good areas in the constituency for all three parties (it's a real mixed bag of a seat), and it is worth observing that the area that is good for Labour (i.e. the Amman Valley) is exactly the sort of place where Corbyn and Late Period Corbynism went down extremely badly.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 14:00:55 GMT
With the terrible Labour result there 6 months ago you are probably right (AFAIK it was the worst Labour result since they first contested it a century ago!) Tories don’t look like making gains now, and LDs out of it. Something wierd could happen, of course. A “progressive anti-Nationalist alliance” might win it. I respect you but Labour getting the 1% the Lib Dems would have got isn’t going to lead to a win here chief. As long as Plaid distance themselves from Edwards this will be a Plaid hold, Conservative slight decrease with a respectable but not brilliant increase for Labour.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 14:08:27 GMT
Welsh polling basically just reflects the national picture with a few (usually pretty small) modifications. When that's not the case, it usually means that the poll is wrong. Anyway, who knows what the political situation will look like by the time elections are a thing again in this country. Pointless to speculate much. For what it's worth, there are 'naturally' good areas in the constituency for all three parties (it's a real mixed bag of a seat), and it is worth observing that the area that is good for Labour (i.e. the Amman Valley) is exactly the sort of place where Corbyn and Late Period Corbynism went down extremely badly. its fair to say even if we see the Tories unwind they'll still do well next year given how low their position was in 2016
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 24, 2020 15:16:54 GMT
With the terrible Labour result there 6 months ago you are probably right (AFAIK it was the worst Labour result since they first contested it a century ago!) Tories don’t look like making gains now, and LDs out of it. Something wierd could happen, of course. A “progressive anti-Nationalist alliance” might win it. Tories don't look like their making gains now? That's just daft. The Tories are in the best position in Wales for a long time. We could see them making some serious gains in the Assembly elections next year Obviously the Tories are up on 2016, but they won't improve on December 2019 now that Covid is unraveling.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 15:19:41 GMT
Tories don't look like their making gains now? That's just daft. The Tories are in the best position in Wales for a long time. We could see them making some serious gains in the Assembly elections next year Obviously the Tories are up on 2016, but they won't improve on December 2019 now that Covid is unraveling. they are already up on 2019 even with the hit they've taken. That may not stay but you can't say anything more definite than that atm
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 24, 2020 15:24:33 GMT
I can
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jun 15, 2020 9:43:50 GMT
East Dunbartonshire (although she seems to be on course to make a recovery).
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