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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 22, 2020 8:45:09 GMT
North Somerset
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 22, 2020 10:14:42 GMT
The Widmerpudlian career of Fox aside, North Somerset needs some serious alignment of stars to be lost to the Tories. Labour sit second, and I can't see them squeezing the other parties enough; the Lib Dems came second in 2010 and cut his majority heavily, but those were very different times. Gut feeling- if it happens, Tory hold for want of a credible unified candidate for anti-Tory forces to coalesce round.
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 38,978
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 22, 2020 10:21:03 GMT
Is it likely that a British candidate would win?
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Post by samdwebber on Jun 22, 2020 23:44:36 GMT
Very early days clearly but I'm surprised nobody has suggested Bromley and Chislehurst:
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 23, 2020 7:35:54 GMT
The Widmerpudlian career of Fox aside, North Somerset needs some serious alignment of stars to be lost to the Tories. Labour sit second, and I can't see them squeezing the other parties enough; the Lib Dems came second in 2010 and cut his majority heavily, but those were very different times. Gut feeling- if it happens, Tory hold for want of a credible unified candidate for anti-Tory forces to coalesce round. Exalt for "Widmerpudlian"
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 23, 2020 11:38:00 GMT
Is it likely that a British candidate would win? Depends who it is really but probably not. The only British appointment was Eric Wyndham-White who ran GATT (as it then was) in the 1950s and 1960s. I don't really think Fox has much of a chance but it is possible that the US and China would back him for various Kremlinology reasons, and they'd be unlikely to back Mandelson for the same reasons. Conversely, he'd get a lot of support from elsewhere. I can't remember the exact rules but so far as I recall a candidate has to be nominated by their own government so Mandelson has to be really persuasive to get the UK nomination. The key issues here: 1. Some member states may wish to stretch it out until January 2021: the Trump administration is currently problematic for the WTO- despite their entirely justified criticisms of China's trade model- because it refuses to appoint judges meaning that there is such a legal backlog that nothing can get done. That will take some time to clear and may work in the UK's favour if there is a dispute with the EU over Northern Ireland. 2. The WTO has taken a serious backseat during the current situation: it has been powerless to stop governments imposing coronavirus related export restrictions. Whilst most people probably think that is OK (I personally would rather UK equipment stayed in the UK until we're sure we can export PPE etc again), it has caused some annoyance among the Global South. They may want someone who can take a stronger stance, or at least can do government ear-bending better than the incumbent. That at least three candidates are touting knowledge of French and Arabic is clearly an attempt to get the African Francophonie onside (with one stating that he is an advanced beginner in Putonghua which may help with those African states that have close links to China). 3. Revamping the rule book. Again, the Global South will want the rules reviewed to take account of differences between market-based and state-based/managed economies and the growth in services that aren't really covered. Plus stopping the Chinese bending the rules to breaking point which will be the main concern of the West. China will make it known who she prefers and it will be interesting to see whether any of the African countries she is involved with fall in behind that, unless of course the Chinese back an African candidate (my money is on the Chinese expressing support for Egyptian Abdel-Hamid Mamdouh, a massive WTO insider). The Moldovan candidate hasn't got much hope: good chance next time if his career trajectory stays the way it is. Amina Mohamed is being touted by the Kenyans but she might come up against Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in the 'we need an African woman' stakes so they may cancel each other out. The Mexican- Jesus Seade Kuri- is able to tout experience in handling NAFTA/USMCA which will endear him to the Trump administration but does that help him with everyone else? It probably won't if there is a change next January and things are stalled until then. Nominations close on the 8th of July so there is still time for candidates to emerge. Sigrid Kaag has been mentioned but she's probably happy being Dutch trade minister. For the rest of the EU, Arancha Gonzalez could go for it: she was at the WTO until recently but only just got appointed as Spanish foreign minister and may feel she has a good chance of an EU job further down the line. The deputy directors general show little sign of wanting the job, and one is Chinese so won't get the job anyway.
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Post by spirit on Jun 27, 2020 17:10:48 GMT
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,011
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Post by peterl on Jun 27, 2020 21:25:11 GMT
Anyone know if a complaint has been made to the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner? If so, that could keep the scandal spinning along for a while and potentially add some pressure if an adverse finding is made.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jul 8, 2020 5:55:19 GMT
Is it likely that a British candidate would win? Depends who it is really but probably not. The only British appointment was Eric Wyndham-White who ran GATT (as it then was) in the 1950s and 1960s. I don't really think Fox has much of a chance but it is possible that the US and China would back him for various Kremlinology reasons, and they'd be unlikely to back Mandelson for the same reasons. Conversely, he'd get a lot of support from elsewhere. I can't remember the exact rules but so far as I recall a candidate has to be nominated by their own government so Mandelson has to be really persuasive to get the UK nomination. The key issues here: 1. Some member states may wish to stretch it out until January 2021: the Trump administration is currently problematic for the WTO- despite their entirely justified criticisms of China's trade model- because it refuses to appoint judges meaning that there is such a legal backlog that nothing can get done. That will take some time to clear and may work in the UK's favour if there is a dispute with the EU over Northern Ireland. 2. The WTO has taken a serious backseat during the current situation: it has been powerless to stop governments imposing coronavirus related export restrictions. Whilst most people probably think that is OK (I personally would rather UK equipment stayed in the UK until we're sure we can export PPE etc again), it has caused some annoyance among the Global South. They may want someone who can take a stronger stance, or at least can do government ear-bending better than the incumbent. That at least three candidates are touting knowledge of French and Arabic is clearly an attempt to get the African Francophonie onside (with one stating that he is an advanced beginner in Putonghua which may help with those African states that have close links to China). 3. Revamping the rule book. Again, the Global South will want the rules reviewed to take account of differences between market-based and state-based/managed economies and the growth in services that aren't really covered. Plus stopping the Chinese bending the rules to breaking point which will be the main concern of the West. China will make it known who she prefers and it will be interesting to see whether any of the African countries she is involved with fall in behind that, unless of course the Chinese back an African candidate (my money is on the Chinese expressing support for Egyptian Abdel-Hamid Mamdouh, a massive WTO insider). The Moldovan candidate hasn't got much hope: good chance next time if his career trajectory stays the way it is. Amina Mohamed is being touted by the Kenyans but she might come up against Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in the 'we need an African woman' stakes so they may cancel each other out. The Mexican- Jesus Seade Kuri- is able to tout experience in handling NAFTA/USMCA which will endear him to the Trump administration but does that help him with everyone else? It probably won't if there is a change next January and things are stalled until then. Nominations close on the 8th of July so there is still time for candidates to emerge. Sigrid Kaag has been mentioned but she's probably happy being Dutch trade minister. For the rest of the EU, Arancha Gonzalez could go for it: she was at the WTO until recently but only just got appointed as Spanish foreign minister and may feel she has a good chance of an EU job further down the line. The deputy directors general show little sign of wanting the job, and one is Chinese so won't get the job anyway. Mandelson has been ruled out. Fox is still in the frame but is an obvious lightweight here. Phil Hogan was touting himself around but there isn't currently an EU candidate, and EU trade ministers have said that it is more important to get the WTO up to scratch than it is to have a European running it. Nominations close today.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,734
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jul 8, 2020 13:32:24 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 8, 2020 13:40:25 GMT
Royaume Uni - null points!
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Post by spirit on Jul 15, 2020 21:28:21 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2020 22:19:49 GMT
I wonder if he will see it out or resign at some point.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 15, 2020 22:23:04 GMT
It's probably worth seeing it out because he might be readmitted, and be able to resurrect his Parliamentary career. Although one of his Labour predecessors had to stand down at the next election after he was convicted of cottaging right at the start of the Parliament.
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 21, 2020 7:04:42 GMT
Delyn
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jul 21, 2020 11:55:21 GMT
Would, if I'm not mistaken, be only the second parliamentary by-election this century in a Conservative-held marginal in which Labour are the main challengers.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2020 16:00:14 GMT
I'm not sure any of these "suggestions" ever come true.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 22, 2020 11:39:13 GMT
I'm not sure any of these "suggestions" ever come true. Several dozen pages back someone had counted up the number of seats mentioned in this thread verses the seats which have actually had a by-election.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 22, 2020 11:46:51 GMT
I'm not sure any of these "suggestions" ever come true. Several dozen pages back someone had counted up the number of seats mentioned in this thread verses the seats which have actually had a by-election. It's too big a task but I'd love to go through all 157 pages to see just how many by-elections actually made it through the rumours and ramping. There have been 16 since 11th March 2013: South Shields, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Newark, Clacton, Heywood and Middleton, Rochester and Strood, Oldham West and Royton, Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, Ogmore, Tooting, Batley and Spen, Witney, Richmond Park, Sleaford and North Hykeham, Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central. There have been two by-elections in this Parliament (West Tyrone and Lewisham East Here is a list of all those seats which appeared on this thread as potential by-elections with those marked in bold being those where a by-election was called. Date is when first mentioned 2010-2015 Parliament Mar-13 | Portsmouth South | Mar-13 | Falkirk | Mar-13 | South Shields | May-13 | Ribble Valley | May-13 | Newark | Aug-13 | Bradford West | Sep-13 | Brighton Pavilion | Oct-13 | Sutton Coldfield | Oct-13 | Kirkcaldy | Oct-13 | North Down | Oct-13 | Bradford East | Nov-13 | The Wrekin | Dec-13 | South Suffolk | Dec-13 | Richmond Park | Dec-13 | Manchester Wythenshawe | Jan-14 | North Somerset | Jan-14 | Cannock Chase | Feb-14 | Wellingborough | Mar-14 | Thirsk & Malton | Apr-14 | Basinghstoke | Apr-14 | Fylde | May-14 | South Cambridgeshire | Jul-14 | Bury St Edmunds | Aug-14 | Clacton | Sep-14 | Heywood & Middleton | Sep-14 | Braintree | Nov-14 | Basildon & Billericay |
2015-2017 Parliament May-15 | Orkney & Shetland | May-15 | Coventry NW | Jun-15 | Mid Bedfordshire | Jun-15 | Woking | Jul-15 | Plymouth Moor View | Jul-15 | Plymouth Sutton & Devonport | Jul-15 | Rochdale | Aug-15 | Barrow and Furness | Sep-15 | Tooting | Sep-15 | Edinburgh West | Nov-15 | Belfast South | Nov-15 | Glasgow East | Nov-15 | St Helens South & Whiston | Nov-15 | Northampton South | Dec-15 | Ogmore | Dec-15 | Ilford South | Feb-16 | Buckingham | Mar-16 | Tewkesbury | Mar-16 | Wansbeck | Apr-16 | Bradford West | May-16 | Lancaster & Fleetwood | May-16 | Dundee East | Jun-16 | Sheffield Hallam | Jun-16 | South Thanet | Jun-16 | Batley & Spen | Jun-16 | Witney | Jul-16 | Uxbridge | Jul-16 | Tatton | Sep-16 | Leicester East | Oct-16 | Richmond Park | Oct-16 | Twickenham | Nov-16 | Bath | Nov-16 | Sleaford & North Hykeham | Nov-16 | Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock | Dec-16 | Manchester Gorton * | Dec-16 | West Dorset | Dec-16 | Bolsover | Dec-16 | Walsall North | Dec-16 | South Cambridgeshire | Dec-16 | Leigh | Dec-16 | Liverpool Walton | Dec-16 | Broxtowe | Dec-16 | Ochil & South Perthshire | Dec-16 | Copeland | Dec-16 | Clacton | Jan-17 | Stoke Central | Jan-17 | Totnes |
2017- Parliament Jun-17 | South Thanet | Jun-17 | Plymouth Moor View | Jun-17 | Plymouth Sutton & Devonport | Jun-17 | North East Fife | Jun-17 | Newcastle under Lyme | Jun-17 | Maidenhead | Jul-17 | Streatham | Jul-17 | Newton Abbot | Oct-17 | Sheffield Hallam | Oct-17 | Wyre Forest | Nov-17 | Sevenoaks | Nov-17 | Luton North | Nov-17 | Dover | Nov-17 | Tamworth | Nov-17 | Central Suffolk | Nov-17 | Rotherham | Nov-17 | Hampstead & Kilburn | Jan-18 | Old Bexley & Sidcup | Jan-18 | Richmond Park | Jan-18 | Barnsley Central | Mar-18 | Buckingham | Mar-18 | Barrow and Furness | Apr-18 | Saffron Walden | Apr-18 | Brecon & Radnorshire | Apr-18 | Lewisham East | May-18 | Oldham East & Saddleworth | Jun-18 | Broxtowe |
Note that the ramping seems to have become worse with as many by-elections mooted in the year since the last general election as were in the two years between 2013 and 2015 even though ianrobo was active in that period Might be worth doing an update if I find time though I don't think the ramping has been quite as prolific in the intervening couple of years?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2020 14:46:47 GMT
Yeah I tried updating that but it seems that every possible hint of a suggestion of an idea is now posted on this thread.
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