Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on Nov 25, 2019 17:12:47 GMT
Labour +9... It is 2017 all over again Either a rogue poll or Farage had messed up by standing his candidates down in Wales.
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 25, 2019 17:13:08 GMT
It maybe me misremembering, but did the campaign movement towards Labour initially show in Wales in 2017? The 20 point Tory leads had already stopped by the time Yougov found Labour 10 up in Wales, but it was probably the first really good poll for Labour, and at exactly the same point of the campaign.
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Nov 25, 2019 17:15:32 GMT
This brings the swing in Wales pretty much bang on with the swing the national polls are currently predicting, roughly 5% to the Tories. Therefore, it's not a particularly interesting poll (but welcome to Labour all the same!)
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,858
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Post by jamie on Nov 25, 2019 17:26:55 GMT
Happy to have a Welsh poll if for no other reason than it means people stop claiming Wales is massively diverging from the polling trends in the rest of the UK (and making the associated constituency predictions). You would think people wouldn't compare current national polling to old Welsh polling, but its a luxury we don't have, so an updated poll is most welcome.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,176
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Post by cogload on Nov 25, 2019 17:29:10 GMT
This brings the swing in Wales pretty much bang on with the swing the national polls are currently predicting, roughly 5% to the Tories. Therefore, it's not a particularly interesting poll (but welcome to Labour all the same!) We're up 4 from last time and as we are fighting 2 seats only it makes it a bit hit n miss. B&R looks shonky though.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 25, 2019 17:42:14 GMT
Welsh poll roughly in line with the uk, not much to see, but interesting though. Have labour squeezed all they can out of the Plaid, Lib dem vote? Can the blues hammer away at the Brexit party vote? although I suspect a higher than average vote for the Brexit party in wales comes from former labour voters, I suspect they might return to the fold.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Nov 25, 2019 18:12:56 GMT
Well, that is better for Labour than I had imagined.
Swing is overall in-line with Yougov's UK polls.
The Tories have been doing pretty well in Welsh polls though so they may be a bit unhappy with the results.
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Post by justin124 on Nov 25, 2019 19:36:23 GMT
This Wales poll shows a 4.5% swing from Lab to Con since 2017 and implies the loss of 4 seats on a UNS basis. However, 3 of the seats at risk could well be saved due to first term incumbency. The eve of poll Wales poll carried out via Yougov for Scully in 2017 underestimated Labour's vote share by almost 3%.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2019 9:39:10 GMT
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Post by formerfifer on Dec 9, 2019 9:56:31 GMT
Wow! That's a very timid tweet from him. I've got used to the usual ramping of the results. If it doesn't come with the preamble tweets of "It's just one poll... but blimey" or "This one is certainly worth the wait" then it can't be the Welsh Political Barometer.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 9, 2019 10:00:44 GMT
Wow! That's a very timid tweet from him. I've got used to the usual ramping of the results. If it doesn't come with the preamble tweets of "It's just one poll... but blimey" or "This one is certainly worth the wait" then it can't be the Welsh Political Barometer. It's going to show absolutely no change from the last one, isn't it?
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Post by formerfifer on Dec 9, 2019 10:15:22 GMT
I guess that explains the lack of pre-release hype. No doubt by about two o clock normal service will be resumed. Thankfully I will miss it.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 9, 2019 12:45:24 GMT
Yep, he's done it again.
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Post by Penddu on Dec 9, 2019 12:46:15 GMT
He just did it... blimeygoshcrumbs!!! Its coming!
4 hours to go!
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Dec 9, 2019 12:50:23 GMT
"Historically high proportion of Welsh people believe that Roger Scully should stop clownishly ramping polls."
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 9, 2019 12:53:56 GMT
He just did it... blimeygoshcrumbs!!! Its coming! 4 hours to go! Gwlad Gwlad landslide ?
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Dec 9, 2019 12:57:49 GMT
It promises to be the most historic poll since the last one.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,661
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 9, 2019 13:10:07 GMT
Oooh David, I can feel a surge coming....
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 9, 2019 13:50:12 GMT
I said this last time, but what can be genuinely historic about it. Tory lead maybe, doesn't seem very likely though; an increased Labour lead would hardly be historic in Wales.
For comparison when today's poll eventually comes out, there has been essentially no change in the national polls since the last Welsh one.
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 9, 2019 14:02:32 GMT
It promises to be the most historic poll since the last one. He is a genuine gold-plated pratt, isn't he
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