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Post by andrew111 on Jul 30, 2019 9:00:33 GMT
Responding to both Pete Whitehead and polaris, who in their somewhat different ways seek to tell me I'm wrong! My own view is that in order to succeed in each constituency in a FPTP Westminster election, you have to have a substantial level of potential support, which I have little doubt the Brexit Party might well have, but a lot of organisation and experience on the ground, which is where I have my doubts If you are a Party with less than 25% in the polls, you are defying gravity to win any seat, and a huge ground game is needed. If you get above 30% the ground game becomes less and less important especially if your vote is demographically concentrated like Labour and the Tories. This is shown by Colne Valley and Huddersfield where the % increase in Labour vote was similar. Labour put huge effort into Colne Valley and little more than the Freepost into Huddersfield, but squeezed the Lib Dem and Green votes just as effectively thanks to what I call "National Tactical Voting" (aka ABT or anyone but Theresa) So if BXP could get up to 35% they could win a lot of seats with little effort, and the same goes for the Lib Dems, who would probably sweep London and much of the south with that national vote share.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 30, 2019 9:06:14 GMT
I thought the point of your post was to refer to the Rees-Mogg insistence that organisations are singular, but apparently it had some deeper significance I was not clever enough to discern... It was. Apologies. No worries, I was a bit cryptic in hoping that a sentence treating "Liberal Democrats" (the official name of the Party) as singular would look rather ridiculous
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 30, 2019 9:35:42 GMT
To pick up on the point made by andrew111 about critical vote share, I would certainly agree in general terms- over 35% and the Brexit Party could sweep the country and get more than 35% of the seats even without the local organisation, but given the general direction of travel in the polls that now looks increasingly unlikely. If we we finish up with something approaching parity among five parties in Wales, strength on the ground will be crucial and under those circumstances I think BxP will be much the weakest of the 5 even if they appear to be ahead of some others by a few percentage points, and it is highly probable they will win nothing at all. Any of the other 4 could do better on seats than their vote share suggests, and with FPTP it will be something of a lottery who wins where. Nobody, not even EC , can predict with any accuracy how vote share translates into seats won.
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 30, 2019 9:45:36 GMT
No worries, I was a bit cryptic in hoping that a sentence treating "Liberal Democrats" (the official name of the Party) as singular would look rather ridiculous It really does. So too Blackburn Rovers, Warner Brothers and the Jackson 5. Still they're all JRM approved so I suppose we'd better stick with it.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 30, 2019 10:36:38 GMT
Definitely a shock poll for Plaid! A bit of a contrast between the Westminster and Assembly findings for sure - though its the latter they care about more.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Jul 30, 2019 10:41:13 GMT
A much bigger swing to the Tories since the last GE than even the latest YouGov GB poll is showing, then. That alone is reason to treat it with some suspicion. Having said that, Labour clearly do have issues in Wales at present beyond the Westminster stuff (as local byelection results show pretty consistently) and there is little doubt that Drakeford has failed to capture the public's imagination (this can also be seen as a warning that a leadership change isn't itself a cure all, of course) He has said he is a transitional leader - and will be leader for this Assembly only
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 30, 2019 10:43:07 GMT
A much bigger swing to the Tories since the last GE than even the latest YouGov GB poll is showing, then. That alone is reason to treat it with some suspicion. Having said that, Labour clearly do have issues in Wales at present beyond the Westminster stuff (as local byelection results show pretty consistently) and there is little doubt that Drakeford has failed to capture the public's imagination (this can also be seen as a warning that a leadership change isn't itself a cure all, of course) He has said he is a transitional leader - and will be leader for this Assembly only I missed that tbh, though it would make sense even if his personal popularity was higher.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Jul 30, 2019 10:51:03 GMT
Definitely a shock poll for Plaid! Though it is quite a bit less of a share of the potential vote than Plaid actually got in the first National Assembly Election.... Constituency Labour 384,671 37.6 Plaid Cymru 290,572 28.4 Conservative 162,133 15.8 Lib Dem 137,857 13.5 Green 1,002 0.1 Region Labour 361,657 35.4 Plaid Cymru 312,048 30.5 Conservative 168,206 16.5 Lib Dem 128,008 12.5 Green 25,858 2.5
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,541
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 30, 2019 11:17:41 GMT
No worries, I was a bit cryptic in hoping that a sentence treating "Liberal Democrats" (the official name of the Party) as singular would look rather ridiculous It really does. So too Blackburn Rovers, Warner Brothers and the Jackson 5. Still they're all JRM approved so I suppose we'd better stick with it. In US English grammar they do this, I'm not sure Rees-Mogg would like it pointed out that his preferred grammar is that of the colonials...
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 30, 2019 11:25:44 GMT
It really does. So too Blackburn Rovers, Warner Brothers and the Jackson 5. Still they're all JRM approved so I suppose we'd better stick with it. In US English grammar they do this, I'm not sure Rees-Mogg would like it pointed out that his preferred grammar is that of the colonials... I'm not entirely convinced that he wouldn't.
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carlton43
Non-Aligned
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Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 30, 2019 12:58:58 GMT
A much bigger swing to the Tories since the last GE than even the latest YouGov GB poll is showing, then. That alone is reason to treat it with some suspicion. Having said that, Labour clearly do have issues in Wales at present beyond the Westminster stuff (as local byelection results show pretty consistently) and there is little doubt that Drakeford has failed to capture the public's imagination (this can also be seen as a warning that a leadership change isn't itself a cure all, of course) He has said he is a transitional leader - and will be leader for this Assembly only So, we even have 'transitional' leaders now do we? Not a temporary or stop gap but 'transitional'! So, what is he transitioning to? A pretty woman? A green lizard? Or a competent politician? No, that does seem a bit unlikely come to think of it. But, hey, transitional!! That's good isn't? Whatever it means. Being in Wales it probably doesn't mean anything very sensible?
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Post by Penddu on Jul 30, 2019 13:31:17 GMT
Transitioning to his preferred successor Vaughan Gething, who at this rate will either be Leader of the Opposition or at best Deputy FM under Adam Price.
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Post by tonygreaves on Jul 30, 2019 13:53:41 GMT
Is "Jacob Rees-Mogg" singular?
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 30, 2019 13:54:22 GMT
Is "Jacob Rees-Mogg" singular? He's certainly that.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Jul 30, 2019 22:11:04 GMT
For some commentary on the poll
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Post by tonygreaves on Jul 30, 2019 22:35:58 GMT
I was very impressed with Mark Drakeford on the TV this evening. He is able to speak clearly without gabbling or muttering, and he has the ability to present facts and logical arguments in an ordered way. I thought there were none left.
By the way the comma that J R-M does not like would seem to be the Oxford Comma. It gets better.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 31, 2019 17:15:15 GMT
By the way the comma that J R-M does not like would seem to be the Oxford Comma. It gets better. Well, he is a Trinity man, so you can't expect the highest standards.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 1, 2019 9:09:07 GMT
Transitioning to his preferred successor Vaughan Gething, who at this rate will either be Leader of the Opposition or at best Deputy FM under Adam Price. As refreshing a change a non Labour FM would make, the seat projection on the 'historic' poll put's Plaid on 15 seats to Labour's 17. therefor Adam would be Deputy FM under Labour just like Ieuan was.
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Post by Penddu on Aug 2, 2019 18:39:27 GMT
Transitioning to his preferred successor Vaughan Gething, who at this rate will either be Leader of the Opposition or at best Deputy FM under Adam Price. As refreshing a change a non Labour FM would make, the seat projection on the 'historic' poll put's Plaid on 15 seats to Labour's 17. therefor Adam would be Deputy FM under Labour just like Ieuan was. I am assuming a continuation of the trend...
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Post by MeirionGwril on Sept 13, 2019 9:55:58 GMT
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