Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2019 9:17:21 GMT
Labour have been in power in Wales for 20 years...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 29, 2019 9:50:54 GMT
Having said that, Labour clearly do have issues in Wales at present beyond the Westminster stuff (as local byelection results show pretty consistently) and there is little doubt that Drakeford has failed to capture the public's imagination (this can also be seen as a warning that a leadership change isn't itself a cure all, of course) In terms of leadership in Wales over the last 12 months, Plaid have taken five steps forward while Labour have taken three or four backwards. Drakeford is quite literally a metaphor for a steady as we go kind of government. Labour also seem tired and unable to motivate their support base as seen in several by-elections, coupled with the televised shit storm that is JC in Westminister. That being said there was a large number of retirees from the Labour benches at the last election, so the personal vote went, the new class of Waters, Miles, David et al should be able to shore up their personal votes in seats that Plaid are eyeing up. Labour will also be helped because Plaid have lost the two candidates who almost pulled off surprise gains in Cardiff West and Blaeanu Gwent and aren't exactly flush with charismatic candidates to replace them with.
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 29, 2019 10:12:50 GMT
Labour have been in power in Wales for 20 years... Labour 'has' been in power. Did you not get the memo?
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 29, 2019 11:56:01 GMT
Labour have been in power in Wales for 20 years... Labour 'has' been in power. Did you not get the memo? The Liberal Democrats has not been in power recently in Wales
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 29, 2019 12:06:28 GMT
Labour 'has' been in power. Did you not get the memo? The Liberal Democrats has not been in power recently in Wales Apart from the fact that their Leader has been a Cabinet Minister for the last three years.
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Post by polaris on Jul 29, 2019 12:17:58 GMT
A much bigger swing to the Tories since the last GE than even the latest YouGov GB poll is showing, then. That alone is reason to treat it with some suspicion. Having said that, Labour clearly do have issues in Wales at present beyond the Westminster stuff (as local byelection results show pretty consistently) and there is little doubt that Drakeford has failed to capture the public's imagination (this can also be seen as a warning that a leadership change isn't itself a cure all, of course) What are these issues? Has the Welsh Government done anything especially unpopular or incompetent? Or is it just voter fatigue with an administration that has been in power for 20 years?
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,533
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Post by johng on Jul 29, 2019 12:21:49 GMT
A bad poll for Labour, but it's isn't (as stated above) that out of the blue as previous polls have been poor for them.
The Assembly poll is a bit different from the Westminster one.
On a unified swing, that would mean: Labour: 17 seats (16 constituency, 1 regional) Plaid Cymru: 15 seats (12 constituency, 3 regional) Conservatives: 11 seats (10 constituency, 1 regional) Brexit Party: 10 seats (10 regional) Liberal Democrats: 7 seats (2 constituency, 5 regional)
People like Wood would refuse to serve in a coalition with the Tories which just leaves a(nother) Labour-Plaid coalition.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 29, 2019 12:27:24 GMT
The Liberal Democrats has not been in power recently in Wales Apart from the fact that their Leader has been a Cabinet Minister for the last three years. I think you might have missed the point of my post David
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 29, 2019 12:46:08 GMT
Apart from the fact that their Leader has been a Cabinet Minister for the last three years. I think you might have missed the point of my post David And you mine.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 29, 2019 13:12:53 GMT
Mr Johnson makes a fair point!
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 29, 2019 13:19:57 GMT
So it's more or less what I (half-jokingly) suggested - a five way marginal I did a little scenario based on a closer five-way split and ended up with something like Con 14 Lab 8 PC 7 BxP 6 LD 5. The Brexit party seats were mostly in SE Wales (Islwyn, Torfaen, Newport East Caerphilly but also Alyn & Deeside). Blaenau Gwent was actually PC on my model, but on these figures probably not I think that the Brexit party is heading for total meltdown ( sadly, as we could do with them taking more than a handful of votes off the Tories). I think the idea of them getting even close in the five named seats borders on the absurd. It would require a dedicated, experienced and effective campaign team in each of those constituencies. Is there any sign such a thing exists?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 29, 2019 13:30:50 GMT
So it's more or less what I (half-jokingly) suggested - a five way marginal I did a little scenario based on a closer five-way split and ended up with something like Con 14 Lab 8 PC 7 BxP 6 LD 5. The Brexit party seats were mostly in SE Wales (Islwyn, Torfaen, Newport East Caerphilly but also Alyn & Deeside). Blaenau Gwent was actually PC on my model, but on these figures probably not I think that the Brexit party is heading for total meltdown ( sadly, as we could do with them taking more than a handful of votes off the Tories). I think the idea of them getting even close in the five named seats borders on the absurd. It would require a dedicated, experienced and effective campaign team in each of those constituencies. Is there any sign such a thing exists? No really. Do you mean to say that applying UNS based on some totally outlandish opinion results produces a seat projection which is unlikely to be replicated in reality? Well aren't I lucky I've got you to put me straight. Of course the poll we are discussing indicates that the Brexit party in 'meltdown' is even yet more popular than the Lib Dems but to be fair you say it is headed there and presume that is based on the fact that it is a single issue party and the Brexit supporting part of the population are likely to be satisfied on that issue by another party (we shall see, but of course I hope that you are right). Conversely, the single issue party which is the Lib Dems have revived precisely because the single issue cause they espouse is on the cusp of defeat.
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Post by polaris on Jul 29, 2019 13:54:35 GMT
So it's more or less what I (half-jokingly) suggested - a five way marginal I did a little scenario based on a closer five-way split and ended up with something like Con 14 Lab 8 PC 7 BxP 6 LD 5. The Brexit party seats were mostly in SE Wales (Islwyn, Torfaen, Newport East Caerphilly but also Alyn & Deeside). Blaenau Gwent was actually PC on my model, but on these figures probably not I think that the Brexit party is heading for total meltdown ( sadly, as we could do with them taking more than a handful of votes off the Tories). I think the idea of them getting even close in the five named seats borders on the absurd. It would require a dedicated, experienced and effective campaign team in each of those constituencies. Is there any sign such a thing exists? I think that will depend on how Brexit pans out.
I do think they have a chance of becoming a permanent political fixture - they've got plenty of money behind them, and cut loose the cranks and lunatics when they broke off from UKIP. They're also appealing to a particular demographic, which makes it more feasible for them to win some parliamentary seats under First Past the Post.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,240
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 29, 2019 14:05:56 GMT
The Liberal Democrats has not been in power recently in Wales Apart from the fact that their Leader has been a Cabinet Minister for the last three years. Kirsty Williams is not leader of the Welsh Lib Dems, that is Jane Dodds.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 29, 2019 14:31:17 GMT
I think you might have missed the point of my post David And you mine. I thought the point of your post was to refer to the Rees-Mogg insistence that organisations are singular, but apparently it had some deeper significance I was not clever enough to discern...
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Post by lbarnes on Jul 29, 2019 14:57:47 GMT
I thought the point of your post was to refer to the Rees-Mogg insistence that organisations are singular, but apparently it had some deeper significance I was not clever enough to discern... It was. Apologies.
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 29, 2019 15:05:57 GMT
Responding to both Pete Whitehead and polaris, who in their somewhat different ways seek to tell me I'm wrong! My own view is that in order to succeed in each constituency in a FPTP Westminster election, you have to have a substantial level of potential support, which I have little doubt the Brexit Party might well have, but a lot of organisation and experience on the ground, which is where I have my doubts. I hope I am wrong because a reasonably effective Brexit Party machine could well do us a lot of good in syphoning off votes from both Tories and Labour, and then it gets really interesting. It is fairly unlikely they will syphon off many LD votes! It was a huge weakness of UKIP that they made very little headway against the established parties in general elections, and I am yet to be convinced the Brexit Party will be any different- indeed my impression is that it is a much more top-down organisation than UKIP, which might easily make it even weaker than UKIP at building constituency organisation. Both the Brexit Party and UKIP have been brilliant at running European elections, which is perfect for them, ironically enough. UKIP built their grassroots to the point where they were quite good at local elections too, before all of that unravelled. No sign as yet, and okay its too early to tell with any certainty, but so far I'm far from convinced BxP will be able (or even want?) to do the same. So far ,and again with all the reservations necessary, there is little sign they can make a breakthrough in parliamentary by-elections either, which should have suited them much better. Their performance in Peterborough was a missed open goal- we shall soon see what impact they have made on B&R. Real votes in real elections always trumps opinion polls, I reckon.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 29, 2019 17:01:34 GMT
... long-winded waffle.... Real votes in real elections always trumps opinion polls, I reckon. Quite so - but this thread is about polls. This is why I am discussing a poll here.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 29, 2019 17:14:27 GMT
Definitely a shock poll for Plaid!
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 29, 2019 18:52:07 GMT
... long-winded waffle.... Real votes in real elections always trumps opinion polls, I reckon. Quite so - but this thread is about polls. This is why I am discussing a poll here. Have I touched a nerve or something? Doesn't discussing polls extend to discussing what that means when it comes to real elections? Or are you preferring to stick with discussing polls as a purely abstract phenomenon?
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