Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2018 15:46:25 GMT
The first Welsh Poll in four months is coming. Any guesses as to movement? very criptic
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Lord Twaddleford
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Nov 2, 2018 15:56:01 GMT
The first Welsh Poll in four months is coming. Any guesses as to movement? And when it's finally published we find that there's been bugger all movement between the parties... Well, it wouldn't surprise me.
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 2, 2018 17:30:21 GMT
The first Welsh Poll in four months is coming. Any guesses as to movement? And when it's finally published we find that there's been bugger all movement between the parties... Well, it wouldn't surprise me. Such a cynic Some parties may have moved by 1 point.....
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 2, 2018 18:05:10 GMT
And when it's finally published we find that there's been bugger all movement between the parties... Well, it wouldn't surprise me. Such a cynic Some parties may have moved by 1 point..... Ein Gwlad surge.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 2, 2018 18:08:16 GMT
Well, it wouldn't surprise me. The ego he refers to could easily be Adam Price’s. Logically Plaid should have gone up since last time and most of their supporters will be looking for early positive progress. Of course the ego line might be a question regarding the Labour leadership candidates.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2018 18:14:47 GMT
Well, it wouldn't surprise me. The ego he refers to could easily be Adam Price’s. Logically Plaid should have gone up since last time and most of their supporters will be looking for early positive progress. Of course the ego line might be a question regarding the Labour leadership candidates. after a brutal leadership will plaid surge
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 3, 2018 12:52:26 GMT
The ego he refers to could easily be Adam Price’s. Logically Plaid should have gone up since last time and most of their supporters will be looking for early positive progress. Of course the ego line might be a question regarding the Labour leadership candidates. after a brutal leadership will plaid surge I've heard plenty of criticisms of Leanne's time as Plaid leader, but brutal is definitely a new one.
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goose
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Post by goose on Nov 3, 2018 13:15:14 GMT
after a brutal leadership will plaid surge I've heard plenty of criticisms of Leanne's time as Plaid leader, but brutal is definitely a new one. Brutal to listen to at least.
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Post by Penddu on Nov 5, 2018 0:29:08 GMT
I think Plaid have come through their leadership campaign well, but no obvious surge. No AP effect.
On the other hand the Labour contest has highlighted how poor the candidates are...
The Conservatives will have made no progress...ditto LD
While UKIP continue their death spiral
And unfortunately no Ein Gwlad surge..YET!
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Nov 5, 2018 13:34:29 GMT
The first results are dripping out. www.itv.com/news/wales/2018-11-05/poll-shows-that-brexit-deal-with-eu-is-least-favourite-option-with-welsh-voters/ITV are pushing an anti-Brexit narrative with the results - but when the full results come out I think there will be a lot of don't knows. I think when he was referring to reputations and egos at risk, he was referring to the leaders. I wouldn't be surprised if there were more than 50% of respondents giving don't know answers for one (or more) of the Labour leader candidates. I'm not expecting a Price bounce either. Wouldn't be surprised if PC were down a point or two.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2018 13:49:00 GMT
The first results are dripping out. www.itv.com/news/wales/2018-11-05/poll-shows-that-brexit-deal-with-eu-is-least-favourite-option-with-welsh-voters/ITV are pushing an anti-Brexit narrative with the results - but when the full results come out I think there will be a lot of don't knows. I think when he was referring to reputations and egos at risk, he was referring to the leaders. I wouldn't be surprised if there were more than 50% of respondents giving don't know answers for one (or more) of the Labour leader candidates. I'm not expecting a Price bounce either. Wouldn't be surprised if PC were down a point or two. they tend to do a likert scale 1-10 most seem to get less than 5.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2018 14:15:42 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 5, 2018 17:57:10 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention Labour: 42% (-2) Conservatives: 33% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 10% (-3) Liberal Democrats: 7% (+2) UKIP: 4% (+1) Others: 3% (no change) National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention Labour: 38% (no change) Conservatives: 28% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 19% (-2) Liberal Democrats: 6% (no change) UKIP: 6% (+2) Others: 3% (no change) National Assembly Regional Voting Intention Labour: 37% (no change) Conservatives: 26% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 18% (-4) Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1) UKIP: 5% (no change) Others: 9% (+2) Analysis and seat projections if a universal swing were to occur etc www.itv.com/news/wales/2018-11-05/welsh-barometer-poll-tests-the-political-weather/
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2018 19:47:12 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention Labour: 42% (-2) Conservatives: 33% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 10% (-3) Liberal Democrats: 7% (+2) UKIP: 4% (+1) Others: 3% (no change) National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention Labour: 38% (no change) Conservatives: 28% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 19% (-2) Liberal Democrats: 6% (no change) UKIP: 6% (+2) Others: 3% (no change) National Assembly Regional Voting Intention Labour: 37% (no change) Conservatives: 26% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 18% (-4) Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1) UKIP: 5% (no change) Others: 9% (+2) Analysis and seat projections if a universal swing were to occur etc www.itv.com/news/wales/2018-11-05/welsh-barometer-poll-tests-the-political-weather/Plaid still polling abysmally despite dumping Leanne
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Nov 5, 2018 20:36:55 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention Labour: 42% (-2) Conservatives: 33% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 10% (-3) Liberal Democrats: 7% (+2) UKIP: 4% (+1) Others: 3% (no change) National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention Labour: 38% (no change) Conservatives: 28% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 19% (-2) Liberal Democrats: 6% (no change) UKIP: 6% (+2) Others: 3% (no change) National Assembly Regional Voting Intention Labour: 37% (no change) Conservatives: 26% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 18% (-4) Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1) UKIP: 5% (no change) Others: 9% (+2) Analysis and seat projections if a universal swing were to occur etc www.itv.com/news/wales/2018-11-05/welsh-barometer-poll-tests-the-political-weather/Plaid still polling abysmally despite dumping Leanne Most interesting figure for me is the regional voting 'others' up 2 to 9% Ein Gwlad making inroads already ?.
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goose
Conservative & Unionist
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Post by goose on Nov 5, 2018 21:31:50 GMT
Plaid still polling abysmally despite dumping Leanne Most interesting figure for me is the regional voting 'others' up 2 to 9% Ein Gwlad making inroads already ?. Possibly Abolish The Welsh Assembly, they must pretty close to the threshold for getting a regional seat.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 5, 2018 21:56:24 GMT
Most interesting figure for me is the regional voting 'others' up 2 to 9% Ein Gwlad making inroads already ?. Possibly Abolish The Welsh Assembly, they must pretty close to the threshold for getting a regional seat. It’ll be interesting to see which parties were named in the questioning.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 5, 2018 21:58:43 GMT
Most interesting figure for me is the regional voting 'others' up 2 to 9% Ein Gwlad making inroads already ?. Possibly Abolish The Welsh Assembly, they must pretty close to the threshold for getting a regional seat. There’s no threshold in the way there is in London. To win a list seat they’ll need Lab, Con and Plaid to win a FPTP seat in a region AND finish forth on the list in that region (with say 7-8%)
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Post by Penddu on Nov 18, 2018 13:05:33 GMT
Possibly Abolish The Welsh Assembly, they must pretty close to the threshold for getting a regional seat. There’s no threshold in the way there is in London. To win a list seat they’ll need Lab, Con and Plaid to win a FPTP seat in a region AND finish forth on the list in that region (with say 7-8%) It is a bit more complicated than that but the 'effective' threshold for a minor party to win a regional seat is around 7%. It is lower than that in Scotland - nearer 5% - hence the number of Green seats.
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goose
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Post by goose on Dec 11, 2018 15:23:53 GMT
December 2018 Poll Yougov
Westminster Voting Intention
Labour: 43% (+1) Conservatives: 31% (-2) Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3) Liberal Democrats: 6% (-1) UKIP: 3% (-1) Others: 4% (+1)
Labour: 28 seats Conservatives: 8 seats Plaid Cymru: 4 seats
National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention
Labour: 40% (+2) Conservatives: 25% (-3) Plaid Cymru: 20% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 7% (+1) UKIP: 5% (-1) Others: 3% (no change)
National Assembly Regional Voting Intention
Labour: 36% (-1) Conservatives: 24% (-2) Plaid Cymru: 20% (+2) ATWA: 5% Liberal Democrats: 4% (-2) UKIP: 4% (-1) Others: 6%
Assembly Seats
Labour 29 seats (27 constituency, 2 regional) Conservative 16 seats (6 constituency, 10 regional) Plaid Cymru 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional) UKIP 1 seat (1 regional) Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency)
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