cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
|
Post by cibwr on Mar 2, 2018 17:34:21 GMT
I gather that from the poll Plaid would be a small margin from winning in Aberconwy
|
|
|
Post by Lord Twaddleford on Mar 3, 2018 14:12:15 GMT
I gather that from the poll Plaid would be a small margin from winning in Aberconwy But so are Labour, and I think we'd be damn fools not to use some of the momentum from our 2017 GE result going into that one. Personally, I think 2016 was more or less Plaid Cymru's last decent chance of getting the seat back.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2018 16:45:35 GMT
I wouldn't pretend to know the seat well but from what was close result in Assembly between Plaid and the Tories, and in Westminister between Labour and the Tories; there looks to me like a strong anti Tory vote here so I suppose it depends who will benefit from it. Obviously Plaid will be saying they are the only ones to beat the Tories but as Lord has already said Labour will be riding some of that momentum from the GE
|
|
|
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Mar 3, 2018 18:29:47 GMT
You could split the left vote nicely for us to slip through the middle of course.
|
|
|
Post by heslingtonian on Mar 3, 2018 19:59:57 GMT
Why do the Tories on this forum have to have pictures of Rees Mogg & McVey? Do they really think that the Tories will regain power with Rees-Mogg as leader and McVey as his deputy? I mean, Thatcher, Major, even May, but those people? Is Ms McVey’s relationship with a well known highly controversial fellow Right wing MP well known? If not, I imagine she’ll only become less popular with the Left once this becomes better known.
|
|
|
Post by swanarcadian on Mar 3, 2018 20:26:14 GMT
Why do the Tories on this forum have to have pictures of Rees Mogg & McVey? Do they really think that the Tories will regain power with Rees-Mogg as leader and McVey as his deputy? I mean, Thatcher, Major, even May, but those people? Is Ms McVey’s relationship with a well known highly controversial fellow Right wing MP well known? If not, I imagine she’ll only become less popular with the Left once this becomes better known. She doesn't need to be popular with the Left.
|
|
|
Post by andrew on Mar 11, 2018 17:49:50 GMT
Wee bit late but good to see the Plaid Cymru vote strong in Wales. I'm still convinced if they had a different leader that 24% could be a lot higher, as much as I respect and admire Leanne Wood.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 18:52:51 GMT
Wee bit late but good to see the Plaid Cymru vote strong in Wales. I'm still convinced if they had a different leader that 24% could be a lot higher, as much as I respect and admire Leanne Wood. She's the best man among them....
|
|
|
Post by Lord Twaddleford on Mar 11, 2018 21:57:52 GMT
If Leanne Wood is the best Plaid Cymru have got, then they may be in a bit of trouble*...
Not that seeing nationalists struggling is ever likely to cause me bother, mind you...
* As a leader, she's not terrible, but she ain't great either.
|
|
|
Post by andrew on Mar 11, 2018 23:33:05 GMT
If Leanne Wood is the best Plaid Cymru have got, then they may be in a bit of trouble*... Not that seeing nationalists struggling is ever likely to cause me bother, mind you... * As a leader, she's not terrible, but she ain't great either.Liz Saville Roberts would already be there if she was an AM.
|
|
|
Post by Lord Twaddleford on Mar 11, 2018 23:38:53 GMT
If Leanne Wood is the best Plaid Cymru have got, then they may be in a bit of trouble*... Not that seeing nationalists struggling is ever likely to cause me bother, mind you... * As a leader, she's not terrible, but she ain't great either.Liz Saville Roberts would already be there if she was an AM. "Liz Saville Roberts AM" may very well be a thing come the May of 2021, and I can't really imagine Dafydd Elis-Thomas standing again.
|
|
goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
|
Post by goose on Mar 19, 2018 19:04:30 GMT
Westminster (with changes from November)
Labour: 46% (-1) Conservatives: 33% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) UKIP: 4% (+1) Others: 3% (no change)
No seats would change hands
National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention (with changes from November)
Labour: 39% (-4) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+3) UKIP: 5% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 2% (-2)
The Conservatives would gain the Vale of Glamorgan
National Assembly Regional Voting Intention (with changes from November)
Labour: 36% (-2) Conservatives: 27% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 21% (+3) UKIP: 6% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 7% (no change)
North Wales: 3 Conservative, 1 Plaid Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP
This, in turn, projects the following overall result for the National Assembly:
Labour 28 seats (26 constituency, 2 regional) Conservative 17 seats (7 constituency, 10 regional) Plaid Cymru 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional) UKIP 1 seat (1 regional) Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency)
|
|
|
Post by Lord Twaddleford on Mar 19, 2018 19:16:39 GMT
Westminster (with changes from November) Labour: 46% (-1) Conservatives: 33% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) UKIP: 4% (+1) Others: 3% (no change) No seats would change hands National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention (with changes from November) Labour: 39% (-4) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+3) UKIP: 5% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 2% (-2) The Conservatives would gain the Vale of Glamorgan National Assembly Regional Voting Intention (with changes from November) Labour: 36% (-2) Conservatives: 27% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 21% (+3) UKIP: 6% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 7% (no change) North Wales: 3 Conservative, 1 Plaid Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP This, in turn, projects the following overall result for the National Assembly: Labour 28 seats (26 constituency, 2 regional) Conservative 17 seats (7 constituency, 10 regional) Plaid Cymru 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional) UKIP 1 seat (1 regional) Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency) SourceLet's just say we've had far worse polling figures, and election results for that matter. Minor Tory upswing probably in hand with what's happening in the nationwide polls, though I'm rather sceptical about any kind of upswing for UKIP, who the way they're going I'm not sure they're even going to be around to contest the next set of elections.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2018 20:34:42 GMT
Westminster (with changes from November) Labour: 46% (-1) Conservatives: 33% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) UKIP: 4% (+1) Others: 3% (no change) No seats would change hands National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention (with changes from November) Labour: 39% (-4) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+3) UKIP: 5% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 2% (-2) The Conservatives would gain the Vale of Glamorgan National Assembly Regional Voting Intention (with changes from November) Labour: 36% (-2) Conservatives: 27% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 21% (+3) UKIP: 6% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 7% (no change) North Wales: 3 Conservative, 1 Plaid Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP This, in turn, projects the following overall result for the National Assembly: Labour 28 seats (26 constituency, 2 regional) Conservative 17 seats (7 constituency, 10 regional) Plaid Cymru 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional) UKIP 1 seat (1 regional) Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency) do any Westminister seats change hands
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2018 20:34:53 GMT
Westminster (with changes from November) Labour: 46% (-1) Conservatives: 33% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) UKIP: 4% (+1) Others: 3% (no change) No seats would change hands National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention (with changes from November) Labour: 39% (-4) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+3) UKIP: 5% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 2% (-2) The Conservatives would gain the Vale of Glamorgan National Assembly Regional Voting Intention (with changes from November) Labour: 36% (-2) Conservatives: 27% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 21% (+3) UKIP: 6% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 7% (no change) North Wales: 3 Conservative, 1 Plaid Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP This, in turn, projects the following overall result for the National Assembly: Labour 28 seats (26 constituency, 2 regional) Conservative 17 seats (7 constituency, 10 regional) Plaid Cymru 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional) UKIP 1 seat (1 regional) Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency) <iframe width="6.399999999999977" height="28.12000000000012" style="position: absolute; width: 6.4px; height: 28.12px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 0px; top: 0px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_16912932" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="6.399999999999977" height="28.12000000000012" style="position: absolute; width: 6.4px; height: 28.12px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 273px; top: -1366px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_11386021" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="6.399999999999977" height="28.12000000000012" style="position: absolute; width: 6.4px; height: 28.12px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 10px; top: -39px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_54181368" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="6.399999999999977" height="28.12000000000012" style="position: absolute; width: 6.4px; height: 28.12px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 273px; top: -39px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_56808349" scrolling="no"></iframe>
|
|
|
Post by Lord Twaddleford on Mar 19, 2018 23:32:37 GMT
do any Westminister seats change hands According to Roger Scully, no changes to any seat.
|
|
goose
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 610
|
Post by goose on Mar 20, 2018 15:22:33 GMT
Westminster (with changes from November) Labour: 46% (-1) Conservatives: 33% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 11% (no change) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) UKIP: 4% (+1) Others: 3% (no change) No seats would change hands National Assembly Constituency Voting Intention (with changes from November) Labour: 39% (-4) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+3) UKIP: 5% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 2% (-2) The Conservatives would gain the Vale of Glamorgan National Assembly Regional Voting Intention (with changes from November) Labour: 36% (-2) Conservatives: 27% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 21% (+3) UKIP: 6% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Others: 7% (no change) North Wales: 3 Conservative, 1 Plaid Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP This, in turn, projects the following overall result for the National Assembly: Labour 28 seats (26 constituency, 2 regional) Conservative 17 seats (7 constituency, 10 regional) Plaid Cymru 13 seats (6 constituency, 7 regional) UKIP 1 seat (1 regional) Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency) SourceLet's just say we've had far worse polling figures, and election results for that matter. Minor Tory upswing probably in hand with what's happening in the nationwide polls, though I'm rather sceptical about any kind of upswing for UKIP, who the way they're going I'm not sure they're even going to be around to contest the next set of elections. Still, the Tories are consistently polling at a level that would give them their best ever result in the assembly and clearly present them as the main opposition party to Labour.
|
|
|
Post by Lord Twaddleford on Mar 20, 2018 15:46:20 GMT
SourceLet's just say we've had far worse polling figures, and election results for that matter. Minor Tory upswing probably in hand with what's happening in the nationwide polls, though I'm rather sceptical about any kind of upswing for UKIP, who the way they're going I'm not sure they're even going to be around to contest the next set of elections. Still, the Tories are consistently polling at a level that would give them their best ever result in the assembly and clearly present them as the main opposition party to Labour. Looking at the pattern of past Assembly election results, Plaid Cymru pretty much hit their peak in 1999, and since then the Conservatives have been gaining ground in the Senedd (minor setbacks in 2016 not withstanding). I think it was around about 2011 that one could say that the Conservative party more or less established itself as the main opposition here, once again, minor losses in 2016 not withstanding (and even then, your party managed to regain its status as primary opposition very quickly, thanks to a couple of defections here & there, and possibly a suspension too).
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 2, 2018 18:05:18 GMT
Westminister
Labour: 44% (-2) Conservatives: 31% (-2) Plaid Cymru: 13% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 5% (+1) UKIP: 3% (-1) Others: 3% (no change)
No seats would change hands on a universal swing.
Assembly Constituency Seats
Labour: 38% (-1) Conservatives: 28% (no change) Plaid Cymru: 21% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 6% (+2) UKIP: 4% (-1) Others: 3% (+1)
Conservatives would gain both the Vale of Clwyd and Vale of Glamorgan from Labour with a universal swing.
Assembly Regional Seats
Labour: 37% (+1) Conservatives: 25% (-2) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 5% (+1) UKIP: 5% (-1) Others: 7% (no change)
Giving:
North Wales: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales East: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP
Giving a grand total of:
Labour 28 seats (down 1) (25 constituency, 3 regional) Conservative 15 seats (up 4) (8 constituency, 7 regional) Plaid Cymru 15 seats (up 3) (6 constituency, 9 regional) UKIP 1 seat (down 6) (1 regional) Liberal Democrats 1 seat (n/c) (1 constituency)
The poll, for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1031 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 28 June-2 July 2018.
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 2, 2018 9:43:05 GMT
The first Welsh Poll in four months is coming. Any guesses as to movement?
|
|