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Post by marksenior on May 22, 2017 16:07:08 GMT
What is Welsh for Weak and Wobbly ?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 22, 2017 16:14:47 GMT
They all look pretty rogue to me. Obviously we'll see on Election Day, but I really don't think there has been anything like the massive swings back and forth these polls are suggesting. Also, Plaid had a pretty good local elections this year and decent Assmebly elections last year so I'd be surprised for them to be getting by far their worst result in recent memory. Ultimately, I think we'll end up with something like this, give or take a couple of percent:
Labour - 38% Conservatives - 36% Plaid Cymru - 13% Lib Dems - 7% UKIP - 5% Greens - 1%
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Post by finsobruce on May 22, 2017 16:21:20 GMT
However there were two polls that had Tories on 40% and 41%. Or maybe Labour are surging in one of their heartands. They are up by a significant amount in national polls. Under performing in Scotland and over performing in Wales is not far fetched. i suspect the previous one was in error and this one correct with the proviso that labour could still lose a couple of seats (and not regain Gower).
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 22, 2017 17:46:17 GMT
Well this is turning out to be a rather strange election isn't it.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 22, 2017 18:24:22 GMT
Anyway, Welsh polling is (as I have often remarked) a pretty volatile thing; massive swings in-campaign are hardly unheard of. Are they real? Who even knows.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 22, 2017 18:26:20 GMT
Now if Labour were to actually hit 44% it would be the best PV result since 2001 and actually only a point off Kinnock's very strong debut in 1987.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 22, 2017 18:32:47 GMT
Leaving aside the matter of the very high scores for both Labour and the Tories in the poll, a relatively strong showing in Wales is hardly implausible: a) in 2015 Labour fell back a little in Wales while gaining a little overall, b) Labour's performance in the locals a few weeks back was stronger in Wales than elsewhere (even in the basket case authorities where winning control is quite the poisoned chalice), c) Labour in Wales may benefit from a more independent profile, d) it's certainly possible that more not-particulary-political people in Wales are attracted by the idea of nationalising utilities and the railways than elsewhere in the UK. But we shall see.
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on May 22, 2017 18:48:25 GMT
Well this is turning out to be a rather strange election isn't it.
Yes
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on May 22, 2017 21:26:09 GMT
YouGov poll by Assembly Region These are obviously based off of sub-samples, so a massive warning in regards to their accuracy.
Mid & West Con - 39% Lab - 29% Lib - 12% Plaid - 11% UKIP - 3%
North Lab - 42% Con - 37% Plaid - 11% Lib - 6% UKIP - 3%
Cardiff & South Central Lab - 53% Con - 30% Plaid - 6% Lib - 5% UKIP - 3%
South East Con - 39% Lab - 38% Plaid - 10% UKIP - 7% Lib - 5%
South West Lab - 56% Con - 26% Plaid - 9% UKIP - 4% Lib - 3%
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on May 22, 2017 21:27:49 GMT
Assembly Constituency Lab - 40% Con - 27% Plaid - 20% Lib - 6% UKIP - 5%
Assembly List Lab - 37% Con - 26% Plaid - 19% Lib - 5% UKIP - 5% Grn - 3% Abolish the Welsh Assembly - 3%
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 22, 2017 21:42:36 GMT
34% would still be the best Tory share of the vote ever. But that is a turnaround. Who's to say things won't swing back once more? If it is -7% at 34% it can hardly be 'the best ......share of the vote ever' can it? I think it lacks credibility all round.
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Tom
Unionist
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Post by Tom on May 22, 2017 22:18:25 GMT
34% would still be the best Tory share of the vote ever. But that is a turnaround. Who's to say things won't swing back once more? If it is -7% at 34% it can hardly be 'the best ......share of the vote ever' can it? I think it lacks credibility all round. If they get that on polling day it would be. Tories have historically been very weak in Wales.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on May 22, 2017 23:07:35 GMT
Based on uniform swing from the regional sub-samples:
Carmarthen East (Lab gain from Plaid) Gower (Lab gain from Con) Newport East (Con gain from Lab) Newport West (Con gain from Lab) Vale of Clwyd (Lab gain from Con)
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 22, 2017 23:37:14 GMT
Based on uniform swing from the regional sub-samples:
Carmarthen East (Lab gain from Plaid) Gower (Lab gain from Con) Newport East (Con gain from Lab) Newport West (Con gain from Lab) Vale of Clwyd (Lab gain from Con) Regional sub-samples are really not worth the paper they are printed on.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on May 22, 2017 23:41:48 GMT
Based on uniform swing from the regional sub-samples:
Carmarthen East (Lab gain from Plaid) Gower (Lab gain from Con) Newport East (Con gain from Lab) Newport West (Con gain from Lab) Vale of Clwyd (Lab gain from Con) Regional sub-samples are really not worth the paper they are printed on. None of it is.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on May 22, 2017 23:42:24 GMT
Based on uniform swing from the regional sub-samples:
Carmarthen East (Lab gain from Plaid) Gower (Lab gain from Con) Newport East (Con gain from Lab) Newport West (Con gain from Lab) Vale of Clwyd (Lab gain from Con) Regional sub-samples are really not worth the paper they are printed on. I know, I posted something similar when posting the sub-sample percentages above. I can't see Labour losing either Newport seat, Carmarthen East being lost by Plaid, nor Labour gaining Gower or Vale of Clwyd (albeit they won both seats in the Assembly last year).
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Post by John Chanin on May 23, 2017 6:57:39 GMT
Based on uniform swing from the regional sub-samples:
Carmarthen East (Lab gain from Plaid) Gower (Lab gain from Con) Newport East (Con gain from Lab) Newport West (Con gain from Lab) Vale of Clwyd (Lab gain from Con) Regional sub-samples are really not worth the paper they are printed on. No-one these days even wastes paper by printing them....
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on May 31, 2017 7:49:10 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 1, 2017 15:01:16 GMT
Ladies and Gentlemen, your final Welsh Baromitor Poll (ITV/Cardiff University) to be conducted before the election by YouGov:
Lab ......46% Con ......35% PC ......8% LD ......5% UKIP ..5% Other ..1%
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 1, 2017 15:23:27 GMT
Would be: Lab +9% Con +8% PC -3% LD -2% UKIP -9%
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