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Post by jollyroger93 on May 22, 2017 15:04:50 GMT
Hmm bit dubious for the Welsh polls to be so volatile, but I think on the night I'll be close as to who wins in Wales.
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on May 22, 2017 15:05:36 GMT
34% would still be the best Tory share of the vote ever. But that is a turnaround.
Who's to say things won't swing back once more?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2017 15:05:39 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,251
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Post by cogload on May 22, 2017 15:06:16 GMT
Expected.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,370
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Post by Tony Otim on May 22, 2017 15:07:10 GMT
Depending on distribution that could well produce absolute zero changes from 2015.
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 22, 2017 15:11:57 GMT
Latest poll:-
Con 34 (-7) Lab 44 (+9) PC 9 (-2) LD 6(-1) UKIP 5 (+1)
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 22, 2017 15:13:51 GMT
Depending on distribution that could well produce absolute zero changes from 2015. Prof Scully suggest jus one seat to change hands on these figures - Labour to gain Gower
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on May 22, 2017 15:14:46 GMT
Latest poll:- Con 34 (-7) Lab 44 (+9) PC 9 (-2) LD 6(-1) UKIP 5 (+1) You're quick!
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on May 22, 2017 15:16:01 GMT
I do think the sheer scale of the swing suggests this is a rogue poll to some extent. I suspect on election day first place will be a close run thing. Labour's superior organisation may well let them hold onto the Newport and Cardiff seats.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on May 22, 2017 15:18:24 GMT
I do think the sheer scale of the swing suggests this is a rogue poll to some extent. I suspect on election day first place will be a close run thing. It's hard to tell, maybe the poll before was a rogue.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 22, 2017 15:18:50 GMT
I've got money on a Tory hold in Gower.
I'm as confident today having seen this poll as I was the day I placed the bet.
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Post by pepperminttea on May 22, 2017 15:19:21 GMT
I do think the sheer scale of the swing suggests this is a rogue poll to some extent. I suspect on election day first place will be a close run thing. It's hard to tell, maybe the poll before was a rogue. I think both are out. The first was too Tory, this is too Labour.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 22, 2017 15:19:31 GMT
I do think the sheer scale of the swing suggests this is a rogue poll to some extent. I suspect on election day first place will be a close run thing. It's hard to tell, maybe the poll before was a rogue. You mean the two previous polls
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on May 22, 2017 15:22:16 GMT
I do think the sheer scale of the swing suggests this is a rogue poll to some extent. I suspect on election day first place will be a close run thing. It's hard to tell, maybe the poll before was a rogue. However there were two polls that had Tories on 40% and 41%.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on May 22, 2017 15:31:46 GMT
It's hard to tell, maybe the poll before was a rogue. However there were two polls that had Tories on 40% and 41%. Or maybe Labour are surging in one of their heartands. They are up by a significant amount in national polls. Under performing in Scotland and over performing in Wales is not far fetched.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 22, 2017 15:39:46 GMT
As a matter of interest, does anyone have any insight into the applicability of UNS to Welsh polls? I'm particularly thinking of the differences between North and South Wales.
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Post by jollyroger93 on May 22, 2017 15:47:27 GMT
Hmm bit dubious for the Welsh polls to be so volatile, but I think on the night I'll be close as to who wins in Wales. O
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 22, 2017 15:48:11 GMT
I've got money on a Tory hold in Gower. I'm as confident today having seen this poll as I was the day I placed the bet. As am I.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on May 22, 2017 15:58:05 GMT
As a matter of interest, does anyone have any insight into the applicability of UNS to Welsh polls? I'm particularly thinking of the differences between North and South Wales. YouGov usually have a breakdown of the five Assembly regions of Wales when they publish their data tables.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,532
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Post by johng on May 22, 2017 16:04:43 GMT
Wow (or fucking hell as someone more aptly put it!!!)!!!!
What a turnaround for the Labour party. Yes, some will say it's a rogue poll (or maybe the last two were) - but it's clear that Labour are back in the lead in Wales.
If Labour can work the dementia tax angle and damage May's 'Strong and Stable' campaign, it's a strong possibility that in heartland and marginal areas people will go flocking back to them. May with a similar majority to what she had before the election would be a far weaker opponent.
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