Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 24, 2017 15:05:19 GMT
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Tom
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Post by Tom on Apr 24, 2017 15:08:28 GMT
Jesus fucking Christ. This poll is just as astonishing as the Scottish poll. They're not just set to beat Labour on the popular vote, but to win a majority of seats in Wales. Extraordinary times.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 24, 2017 15:10:12 GMT
I was told about this before the weekend but sworn to silence over it but was able to send Roger some interesting data on it and I believe that all of my input was used in the summary.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2017 15:14:23 GMT
Jesus fucking Christ. This poll is just as astonishing as the Scottish poll. They're not just set to beat Labour on the popular vote, but to win a majority of seats in Wales. Extraordinary times. The Conservatives, and latterly the broad Right including UKIP, have been on a rising trend in Wales for years. However, if correct, this is dramatic.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 24, 2017 15:16:13 GMT
Very much in line with their UK-wide figures of course and so very much expected. But still awful to look at, absolutely awful. Would be good (not that I would expect much joy) if other firms besides YouGov polled Wales this election though.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 24, 2017 15:21:23 GMT
I was told about this before the weekend but sworn to silence over it but was able to send Roger some interesting data on it and I believe that all of my input was used in the summary. To be honest it wasn't difficult to guess since so many people in the know were tweeting about an "extraordinary" poll which they weren't allowed to talk about until Monday.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 24, 2017 15:23:47 GMT
Leaders popularity.
Theresa May beats Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 24, 2017 15:25:35 GMT
Tories have a massive lead with older voters. Which part of the UK has an older than average population? Wales. Helps to explain this result.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 24, 2017 15:26:34 GMT
PaddyPower has just suspended beating on Welsh seats.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 24, 2017 15:27:11 GMT
This implies a swing to the Tories even bigger than in GB as a whole. Is that actually credible?
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Post by casualobserver on Apr 24, 2017 15:27:11 GMT
WALES: Con 40%, Lab 30%, PC 13%, LD 8%, GRN 2%. WALES!!!
The unbelievable thing about these figures is that no-one is saying they are unbelievable!
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Tom
Unionist
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Post by Tom on Apr 24, 2017 15:27:20 GMT
Tories winning Dwyfor Merionyd cannot be entirely ruled out, they might win Torfaen too. Can't see Plaid winning Angelsey anymore even with a popular candidate.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 24, 2017 15:27:53 GMT
WALES: Con 40%, Lab 30%, PC 13%, LD 8%, GRN 2%. WALES!!! The unbelievable thing about these figures is that no-one is saying they are unbelievable! I'm saying that a Tory lead of that magnitude is pretty unbelievable, tbh.
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Post by casualobserver on Apr 24, 2017 15:30:42 GMT
This implies a swing to the Tories even bigger than in GB as a whole. Is that actually credible? Interesting question, Bish. The truth is that there'll be several regions in GB where the swing is greater than the GB average, and mathematically the most unlikely regions for that will be those where the Conservatives were furthest ahead in 2015.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2017 15:33:32 GMT
This implies a swing to the Tories even bigger than in GB as a whole. Is that actually credible? Interesting question, Bish. The truth is that there'll be several regions in GB where the swing is greater than the GB average, and mathematically the most unlikely regions for that will be those where the Conservatives were furthest ahead in 2015. UKIP became very strong in Wales, and its implosion must be a factor here. Did UKIP prove to be the "gateway drug" that broke many Welsh Labour supporters' old allegiance and brought them ultimately over to the Conservatives?
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Tom
Unionist
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Post by Tom on Apr 24, 2017 15:35:28 GMT
Poor rating for Andrew RT Davies. He needs to go.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 24, 2017 15:35:37 GMT
This implies a swing to the Tories even bigger than in GB as a whole. Is that actually credible? Well they're starting from a lower base and most of the movement (whether from firms showing huge movement or merely significant movement) is towards them rather than away from Labour (tho' plenty of that also) so its not implausible in itself. It is worth noting, just for the record, that Welsh polling does have a long track record of exaggerating support for parties with obvious momentum, even more so than for UK-wide polls.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 24, 2017 15:38:07 GMT
Did UKIP prove to be the "gateway drug" that broke many Welsh Labour supporters' old allegiance and brought them ultimately over to the Conservatives? Perhaps in some cases, but we need to be careful about reading permanent political shifts into what could be a very unusual election.
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Tom
Unionist
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Post by Tom on Apr 24, 2017 15:38:13 GMT
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Post by casualobserver on Apr 24, 2017 15:39:10 GMT
Very difficult to believe .... I daren't allow myself the luxury!
Of course, just like almost all the recent GB polls and the Scottish polls, this could be an outlier .... But when do you have to accept that previously unthinkable outliers are now the new norm?
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