msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 860
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Post by msc on Apr 22, 2017 8:44:18 GMT
From the way it's been excitedly talked up by him and the Election Data folk, I'm left to assume Welsh Labour have collapsed to Scottish like levels or something equally dramatic.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 22, 2017 8:59:53 GMT
Poll hype often underwhelms. Just putting that out there.
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Apr 22, 2017 9:22:45 GMT
Doubt Labour have collapsed, but suspect the Conservatives are polling ahead.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,757
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 22, 2017 10:42:52 GMT
Labour's history in Wales First Labour candidate: Keir Hardie (Merthyr Tydfil, 1900) First Labour MP: Keir Hardie (Merthyr Tydfil, 1900) First Labour majority of seats: 1923 (19 seats) First Labour majority of votes: 1922 (41% vote share) First complete slate of Labour candidats: 1950 Best result for Labour (complete slate): 1966 (32 seats) Worst result for Labour (complete slate): 1983 (20 seats)
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,282
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 22, 2017 11:07:52 GMT
The particular phrasing of the hyping is the sort usually used to trail that the findings are very tight.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,282
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 22, 2017 12:16:42 GMT
From the way it's been excitedly talked up by him and the Election Data folk, I'm left to assume Welsh Labour have collapsed to Scottish like levels or something equally dramatic. If the figures were like that then they wouldn't be waiting until Monday to publish.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 22, 2017 12:28:52 GMT
From the way it's been excitedly talked up by him and the Election Data folk, I'm left to assume Welsh Labour have collapsed to Scottish like levels or something equally dramatic. If the figures were like that then they wouldn't be waiting until Monday to publish. I am sure that the organisation that is paying for the poll - ITV Wales News - will decide when to publish to get maximum benefit for themselves not for us political anoraks. I am sure it will show slump in Labour and UKIP and surge in Plaid and LD - but by how much I have no idea.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2017 16:41:18 GMT
Roger Scully has confirmed that poll will be published on Monday - and includes some 'dramatic' figures. Watch this space "Prof" Roger Scully should know not to hype individual polls, and indeed that excess hyping of individual polls is part of the reason why so much electoral analysis in this country sucks so badly. But I guess this "prof" has other priorities than academic rigour, such as the need to draw attention to himself.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,282
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 23, 2017 16:59:56 GMT
Roger Scully has confirmed that poll will be published on Monday - and includes some 'dramatic' figures. Watch this space "Prof" Roger Scully should know not to hype individual polls, and indeed that excess hyping of individual polls is part of the reason why so much electoral analysis in this country sucks so badly. But I guess this "prof" has other priorities than academic rigour, such as the need to draw attention to himself. And he has continued to do so. Think from this we can guess roughly what will be shown (yuck). Anyway, somewhat needless to say I agree with you. There's the added irony that this sort of thing feeds the hysterical tone of political discourse that feeds the sort of politics that these people - mostly with fairly boring technocratic political leanings - deplore.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 23, 2017 23:22:57 GMT
I do not know what the figures will show but I am going to stick my neck out and suggest:
Lab 35% Con 34% PC 15% LD 10% UKIP 5% Green 2%
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Apr 24, 2017 1:35:26 GMT
"Prof" Roger Scully should know not to hype individual polls, and indeed that excess hyping of individual polls is part of the reason why so much electoral analysis in this country sucks so badly. But I guess this "prof" has other priorities than academic rigour, such as the need to draw attention to himself. I don't think we can blame Professor Scully for there being so few Welsh opinion polls that any poll is news. Yes. Welsh polls are such a rare beast that any poll will be 'hyped'. I think Penddu is probably pretty close to the mark. The poll will probably show Labour and the Tories within a few points of each other.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,757
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 24, 2017 6:54:26 GMT
I do not know what the figures will show but I am going to stick my neck out and suggest: Lab 35% Con 34% PC 15% LD 10% UKIP 5% Green 2% Well, a Lab lead of 1% would certainly justify the "hype" as it has been called. Running that through UK-Elect gets us nothing (as it totals 101%) so therefore making an adjustment to make it 100% (Plaid down to 14%, Lab down to 34%) we get Lab on 18 seats, Con on 17 seats, Plaid on 4 and Lib Dems on 1. Therefore as that would be a 5% swing from Lab to Con, that could be a hurray moment for Lab (considering some polls have them suffering a 9% swing from Lab to Con across the UK, and Wales has actually been remarkably in lockstep with the rest of the UK on a Con / Lab swing in the past).
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Apr 24, 2017 11:48:07 GMT
This poll is clearly going to have a Tory lead. He wouldn't have said he was struggling to find any historical precedents otherwise.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 24, 2017 11:55:51 GMT
He often builds up polls by teasing his audience.
But I would be amazed if this showed anything other than a 5%+ jump for the Conservatives.
His last poll was
Lab - 33% Con - 28% PC - 13% UKIP - 13% LD - 9% Green 2%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 24, 2017 13:36:35 GMT
When's he releasing this sodding poll??
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,705
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Post by iain on Apr 24, 2017 13:37:11 GMT
When's he releasing this sodding poll?? 6pm I believe
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robert1
Conservative
Posts: 704
Member is Online
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Post by robert1 on Apr 24, 2017 13:38:15 GMT
Yes. At 18.00
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,757
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 24, 2017 13:39:39 GMT
When's he releasing this sodding poll?? It will be the lead headline on the ITV Wales News at Six (so around 6.00pm give or take a few moments)
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Post by pembspolitic on Apr 24, 2017 14:27:11 GMT
The Conservatives will probably be in the lead. From what i can see - Plaid's highest % in a poll in the last decade was 17% in March 2009, and in the past 5 years 15% in January 2014 - could they be reaching or breach this? The Cons were polling above 30% in 2009/2010 and 33% (July 2009 - Labour was on 28%) is their highest poll for a GE in the past decade and more.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 24, 2017 15:03:35 GMT
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