Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2017 15:39:38 GMT
WALES: Con 40%, Lab 30%, PC 13%, LD 8%, GRN 2%. WALES!!! The unbelievable thing about these figures is that no-one is saying they are unbelievable! They are unbelievable.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 24, 2017 15:40:52 GMT
Interesting that the Conservatives get 40% in Westminster but only 26% for local elections.
Obvious there are many facts and a big chuck of the 12% of others will be independents.
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 24, 2017 15:41:33 GMT
This implies a swing to the Tories even bigger than in GB as a whole. Is that actually credible? Of course it's credible. I pointed out 2 days ago that if swings are less than average in London and the west country (because there are aren't Labour votes to swing), then there must be higher than average swings in the Midlands and Wales.
This is a bit like those numerate in 2015 pointing out that the Liberals were so low in the polls that they couldn't possibly be holding all the seats people were expecting them to hold.
Perhaps I ought also to give Anthony Wells usual warning that you always need confirmation for unexpected polls, as 1 in 20 will always be outside the range of expectations (margin of error).
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 24, 2017 15:42:50 GMT
Poor rating for Andrew RT Davies. He needs to go. There's a greater chance of Leanne going than RT.
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Post by casualobserver on Apr 24, 2017 15:44:29 GMT
This implies a swing to the Tories even bigger than in GB as a whole. Is that actually credible? Of course it's credible. I pointed out 2 days ago that if swings are less than average in London and the west country (because there are aren't Labour votes to swing), then there must be higher than average swings in the Midlands and Wales.
This is a bit like those numerate in 2015 pointing out that the Liberals were so low in the polls that they couldn't possibly be holding all the seats people were expecting them to hold.
absolutely spot on!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2017 15:44:39 GMT
Did UKIP prove to be the "gateway drug" that broke many Welsh Labour supporters' old allegiance and brought them ultimately over to the Conservatives? Perhaps in some cases, but we need to be careful about reading permanent political shifts into what could be a very unusual election. Nothing is forever but, having lost these people (assuming this poll paints a picture something like reality), Labour will in future have to try to win them back. That may not be straightforward.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on Apr 24, 2017 15:52:43 GMT
WALES: Con 40%, Lab 30%, PC 13%, LD 8%, GRN 2%. WALES!!! The unbelievable thing about these figures is that no-one is saying they are unbelievable! Feck.
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hedgehog
Non-Aligned
Enter your message here...
Posts: 6,826
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Post by hedgehog on Apr 24, 2017 15:54:10 GMT
Does this poll mean the Tories will change their mind about taking all those Welsh seats away in their boundary review.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,823
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Post by iain on Apr 24, 2017 15:55:31 GMT
This implies a swing to the Tories even bigger than in GB as a whole. Is that actually credible? I would say likely
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,823
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Post by iain on Apr 24, 2017 15:56:10 GMT
Tories winning Dwyfor Merionyd cannot be entirely ruled out, they might win Torfaen too. Can't see Plaid winning Angelsey anymore even with a popular candidate. Calm down
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Apr 24, 2017 16:04:50 GMT
Wow. That is quite the poll indeed. It's going to take some time to digest.
On UNS is suggest the Conservatives would take:
Alyn & Deeside Bridgend Cardiff South & Penarth Cardiff West Clwyd South Delyn Newport East Newport West Wrexham Ynys Mon
If that came to being, Wales' electoral politics will have seen a massive sea-change of a size last seen with the collapse of the Liberal Party.
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msc
Non-Aligned
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Post by msc on Apr 24, 2017 16:10:01 GMT
Well, that's a fucking shambles and a half.
Of the seats above, Paul Flynn might hang on beyond a national swing, imo, likes a scrap, popular locally, though demographics apparently shifting in Newport. Most of the rest, though...
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 24, 2017 16:13:29 GMT
When one of the daily poll averages suggested in Wales Plaid gaining Llanelli and Rhondda I thought to myself "I can't post the forecast people will think I am mad" now I am not sure they would think me mad
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2017 16:42:55 GMT
Doing very well in opinion polls makes it very difficult to sound objective - and risks sounding like complacency - when making predictions of a landslide for your chosen party.
So what is the best way to go about it?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 24, 2017 17:02:26 GMT
We are going to hear a lot of talk in this election about how Labour aren't getting their message across, or more likely that Corbyn et al aren't being given a chance.
Well, stuff like this should be a wake-up call. We're talking a part of the country that has been receptive to Labour for decades and know exactly what they offer. If they're not keen, then it's not because they don't really understand socialism- it's because they think the Labour leadership is a bit shit.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,369
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 24, 2017 17:25:21 GMT
When one of the daily poll averages suggested in Wales Plaid gaining Llanelli and Rhondda I thought to myself "I can't post the forecast people will think I am mad" now I am not sure they would think me mad tbh if this poll is reality then seats potentially threated by Plaid aren't going to be the problem because what the poll shows is not a collapse in the Labour vote (though its still low obviously) but a surge in the Conservative one. Of course I make no predictions.
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Post by pembspolitic on Apr 24, 2017 19:55:29 GMT
I just can't see the Conservatives taking Ynys Mon or either of the Cardiff seats. I think we'll see them doing very well in North East Wales & Newport. We could end up with a neat 3 Wales model map - Y Fro going Plaid, The Valleys staying labour & the Cons sweeping all of 'British' Wales.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 24, 2017 20:05:57 GMT
Interesting that the Conservatives get 40% in Westminster but only 26% for local elections. Obvious there are many facts and a big chuck of the 12% of others will be independents. One word. Corbyn.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 24, 2017 20:13:13 GMT
Apparently, the last time the Tories were largest party in number of seats in Wales was in the 50s...... the 1850's!!
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Post by Penddu on Apr 24, 2017 20:37:30 GMT
Wow.....my first reaction was f#@* ...
But then I thought about the timing of the poll which must have been around the announcement of the poll itself when the media was full of strident Teresea May and mumbling Comrade Corbyn. As the campaingn develops and firstly passes through the Local election results, i would expect the Conservative lead to fall back; and for Plaid and LD to pick up disaffected Labour voters in those areas where they have a strong base.
But this is clearly going to be Conservatives night.
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